Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.

Study of gene expression in thyrotropin-stimulated thyroid cells by cDNA expression array: ID3 transcription modulating factor as an early response protein and tumor marker in thyroid carcinomas.

Induction of cell proliferation by mitogen or growth factor stimulation leads to the specific induction or repression of a large number of genes. To identify genes differentially regulated by the cAMP-dependent transduction pathway, which is poorly characterized so far, we used the cDNA expression array technology. Hybridizations of Atlas human cDNA expression arrays with (32)P-labeled cDNA probes derived from control or thyrotropin (TSH)-stimulated dog thyrocytes in primary culture generated expression profiles of hundreds of genes simultaneously. Among the genes that displayed modified expression, we selected the transcription factor ID3, whose expression was increased by a cAMP-dependent stimulus. ID3 overexpression after TSH stimulation was first verified by Northern blotting analysis, and its mRNA regulation was then investigated in response to a variety of agents acting on thyrocyte proliferation and/or differentiation. We show that: (1) ID3 mRNA induction was stronger after stimulation of the cAMP cascade, but was not restricted to this signaling pathway, as phorbol myristate ester (TPA) and insulin also stimulated mRNA accumulation; (2) in contrast, powerful mitogens for thyroid cells, epidermal growth factor and hepatocyte growth factor, did not significantly modify ID3 mRNA levels; (3) ID3 protein levels closely parallelled mRNA levels, as revealed by immunofluorescence experiments showing a nuclear signal regulated by TSH; (4) in papillary thyroid carcinomas, ID3 mRNA was downregulated. Our results suggest that ID3 expression might be more related to the differentiating process induced by TSH than to the proliferative action of this hormone.