Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.

Optimal kinetics for quantification of antigen-induced cytokines in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells by real-time PCR and by ELISA.

Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has recently been described as a new tool to measure and accurately quantify mRNA levels. In this study, we have applied this technique to evaluate cytokine mRNA synthesis induced by antigenic stimulation with purified protein derivative (PPD) or heparin-binding haemagglutinin (HBHA) in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected individuals. Whereas PPD and HBHA optimally induced IL-2 mRNA after respectively 8 and 16 to 24 h of in vitro stimulation, longer in vitro stimulation times were necessary for optimal induction of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) mRNA, respectively 16 to 24 h for PPD and 24 to 96 h for HBHA. IL-13 mRNA was optimally induced by in vitro stimulation after 16-48 h for PPD and after 48 to 96 h for HBHA. Comparison of antigen-induced Th1 and Th2 cytokines appears, therefore, valuable only if both cytokine types are analysed at their optimal time point of production, which, for a given cytokine, may differ for each antigen tested. Results obtained by real-time PCR for IFN-gamma and IL-13 mRNA correlated well with those obtained by measuring the cytokine concentrations in cell culture supernatants, provided they were high enough to be detected. We conclude that real-time PCR can be successfully applied to the quantification of antigen-induced cytokine mRNA and to the evaluation of the Th1/Th2 balance, only if the kinetics of cytokine mRNA appearance are taken into account and evaluated for each cytokine measured and each antigen analysed.