The Vietnam's Transition Economy and Its Fledgling Financial Markets: 1986-2003

In this paper, we analyze the context of Vietnam’s economic standings in the reform period. The first section embarks on most remarkable factors, which promote the development of financial markets are: (i) Doi Moi policies in 1986 unleash ‘productive powers’. Real GDP growth, and key economic indicators improve. The economy truly departs from the old-style command economy; (ii) FDI component is present in the economy as sine qua non; a crucial growth engine, forming part of the financial markets, planting the ‘seeds’ for its growth; and (iii) the private economy is both the result and cause of the reform. Its growth is steady. Today, it represents a powerhouse, and helps form part of the genuine financial economy. A few noteworthy points found in the next section are: (i) No evidence of financial markets existence was found before Doi Moi. The reform has generated a bulk of private-sector financial companies. New developments have roots in the 1992-amended constitution (x3.2); (ii) The need to reform the financial started with the domino collapse of credit cooperatives in early 1990s. More stress is caused by the ‘blow’ of banking deficiency in late 1990s; and (iii) Laws on SBV and credit institutions, and the launch of the stock market are bold steps. Besides, the Asian financial turmoil forces the economy to reaffirm its reform agenda. Our findings also indicate, through empirical evidences, that economic conditions have stabilized throughout the reform, thanks to the contributions of the FDI and private economic sector. Private investment flows continue to be an eminent factor that drives the economy growth.

Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy

This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.

Resources, experience and perseverance in entrepreneurs' perceived likelihood of success in an emerging economy

This paper introduces new results obtained from a statistical investigation into a 3071-observation data set collected from a Vietnamese nationwide entrepreneurship survey. From established relationships, such factors as preparedness, financial resources and participation in social networks are confirmed to have significant effects on entrepreneurial decisions. Entrepreneurs, both financially constrained and unconstrained, who have a business plan tend to start their entrepreneurial ventures earlier. Also, financial constraints have a profound impact on the entrepreneurial decisions. When perceiving the likelihood of success to be high, an entrepreneur shows the tendency for prompt action on business ideas. But when seeing the risk of prolonging the waiting time to first revenue, a prospective entrepreneur would be more likely to wait for more favorable conditions despite the vagueness of "favorable". Additionally, empirical computations indicate that there is a 41.3% probability that an extant entrepreneur who is generating revenue sees high chance of success. Past work and entrepreneurial experiences also have positive impacts on both the entrepreneurial decisions and perceived chance of success.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.