A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

HER-2/neu evaluation by immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in situ hybridization in breast cancer: implications for daily laboratory practice.

BACKGROUND: HER-2/neu status was determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) methods in more than 300 paraffin-embedded primary breast cancer samples. MATERIALS AND METHODS: HER-2/neu status was determined by FISH using the PathVysion kit (Vysis) and by IHC using either a monoclonal antibody CB11 or a cocktail of antibodies: the monoclonal TAB250 and the polyclonal pAb1. RESULTS: Of the 324 cases evaluable by IHC, 65 out of 318 (20%) and 24 out of 324 (7%) were scored as positive when using the antibody cocktail and the CB11, respectively. HER-2/neu gene amplification occured in 64 out of 324 cases (20%). Concordance of FISH and IHC was found in 285 out of 318 cases (90%) and 278 out of 324 cases (86%) using the cocktail and the CB11, respectively. CONCLUSION: The cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the use of a sensitive IHC method followed by confirmation of positive results by FISH considerably decreased the FISH costs and may become standard practice for HER-2/neu evaluation.

Age-related immune reconstitution during highly active antiretroviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected children.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the immune reconstitution in HIV-1-infected children in whom highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) controlled viral replication and to assess the existence of a relation between the magnitude of this restoration and age. METHODS: All HIV-1-infected children in whom a new HAART decreased plasma viral load below 400 copies/ml after 3 months of therapy were prospectively enrolled in a study of their immune reconstitution. Viral load, lymphocyte phenotyping, determination of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell receptor repertoires and proliferative responses to mitogens and recall antigens were assessed every 3 months during 1 year. RESULTS: Nineteen children were evaluated. Naive and memory CD4+ percentages were already significantly increased after 3 months of HAART. In contrast to memory CD4+ percentages, naive CD4+ percentages continued to rise until 12 months. Age at baseline was inversely correlated with the magnitude of the rise in naive CD4+ cells after 3, 6 and 9 months of therapy but not after 12 months. Although memory and activated CD8+ cells were already decreasing after 3 months, abnormalities of the CD8 T cell receptor repertoire and activation of CD8+ cells persisted at 1 year. HAART increased the response to mitogens as early as 3 months after starting therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In children the recovery of naive CD4+ cells occurs more rapidly if treatment is started at a younger age, but after 1 year of viral replication control, patients of all ages have achieved the same level of restoration. Markers of chronic activation in CD8+ cells persist after 1 year of HAART.