A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

Heparin-binding hemagglutinin, from an extrapulmonary dissemination factor to a powerful diagnostic and protective antigen against tuberculosis.

Interactions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with macrophages have long been recognized to be crucial to the pathogenesis of tuberculosis. The role of non-phagocytic cells is less well known. We have discovered a M. tuberculosis surface protein that interacts specifically with non-phagocytic cells, expresses hemagglutination activity and binds to sulfated glycoconjugates. It is therefore called heparin-binding hemagglutinin (HBHA). HBHA-deficient M. tuberculosis mutant strains are significantly impaired in their ability to disseminate from the lungs to other tissues, suggesting that the interaction with non-phagocytic cells, such as pulmonary epithelial cells, may play an important role in the extrapulmonary dissemination of the tubercle bacillus, one of the key steps that may lead to latency. Latently infected human individuals mount a strong T cell response to HBHA, whereas patients with active disease do not, suggesting that HBHA is a good marker for the immunodiagnosis of latent tuberculosis, and that HBHA-specific Th1 responses may contribute to protective immunity against active tuberculosis. Strong HBHA-mediated immuno-protection was shown in mouse challenge models. HBHA is a methylated protein and its antigenicity in latently infected subjects, as well as its protective immunogenicity strongly depends on the methylation pattern of HBHA. In both mice and man, the HBHA-specific IFN-gamma was produced by both the CD4(+) and the CD8(+) T cells. Furthermore, the HBHA-specific CD8(+) T cells expressed bactericidal and cytotoxic activities to mycobacteria-infected macrophages. This latter activity is most likely perforin mediated. Together, these observations strongly support the potential of methylated HBHA as an important component in future, acellular vaccines against tuberculosis.