Reliability of antitransglutaminase antibodies as predictors of gluten-free diet compliance in adult celiac disease.

OBJECTIVE: Strict lifelong compliance to a gluten-free diet (GFD) minimizes the long-term risk of mortality, especially from lymphoma, in adult celiac disease (CD). Although serum IgA antitransglutaminase (IgA-tTG-ab), like antiendomysium (IgA-EMA) antibodies, are sensitive and specific screening tests for untreated CD, their reliability as predictors of strict compliance to and dietary transgressions from a GFD is not precisely known. We aimed to address this question in consecutively treated adult celiacs. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, 95 non-IgA deficient adult (median age: 41 yr) celiacs on a GFD for at least 1 yr (median: 6 yr) were subjected to 1) a dietician-administered inquiry to pinpoint and quantify the number and levels of transgressions (classified as moderate or large, using as a cutoff value the median gluten amount ingested in the overall noncompliant patients of the series) over the previous 2 months, 2) a search for IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA, and 3) perendoscopic duodenal biopsies. The ability of both antibodies to discriminate celiacs with and without detected transgressions was described using receiver operating characteristic curves and quantified as to sensitivity and specificity, according to the level of transgressions. RESULTS: Forty (42%) patients strictly adhered to a GFD, 55 (58%) had committed transgressions, classified as moderate (< or = 18 g of gluten/2 months; median number 6) in 27 and large (>18 g; median number 69) in 28. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA specificity (proportion of correct recognition of strictly compliant celiacs) was 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, and sensitivity (proportion of correct recognition of overall, moderate, and large levels of transgressions) was 0.52, 0.31, and 0.77, and 0.62, 0.37, and 0.86, respectively. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA titers were correlated (p < 0.001) to transgression levels (r = 0.560 and R = 0.631, respectively) and one to another (p < 0.001) in the whole patient population (r = 0.834, N = 84) as in the noncompliant (r = 0.915, N = 48) group. Specificity and sensitivity of IgA-tTG-ab and IgA-EMA for recognition of total villous atrophy in patients under a GFD were 0.90 and 0.91, and 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In adult CD patients on a GFD, IgA-tTG-ab are poor predictors of dietary transgressions. Their negativity is a falsely secure marker of strict diet compliance.

Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.