A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

A Note on Studies of Monetary Policy and Implementation in Vietnam

In this short paper, we have gone through some key results of monetary policy research applied for the Vietnamese economy, over the past 20 years after Doi Moi, together with a few caveats when putting these results in use. We look at different research themes, and suggest that future research make better and more diverse choice of analytic framework, and also put macro and micro-setting connection at work, which appear to likely bring about better and more insightful results for the monetary economics literature in Vietnam.

The Cultural Dimensions of the Vietnamese Private Entrepreneurship

In this essay, we explore cultural impacts on the private entrepreneurship in the post-Doi Moi Vietnam. Some important aspects of the traditional cultural values of the Vietnamese society are explored in conjunction with the socio-economic changes over the past two decades. Traditional cultural values continue to have strong impacts on the Vietnamese society, and to a large extent to adversely affect the entrepreneurial spirit of the community. Typical constraints private entrepreneurs face may have roots in the cultural facet as legacy of the Confucian society, such as relationship-based bank credit. Low quality business education is both victim and culprit of the long-standing tradition that looks down on the role of private entrepreneurship in the country.

Getting to the Real Story: What Vietnamese business people wish foreigners understood about doing business in emerging and transition countries like Vietnam – BEFORE they start

Knowledge sharing typically examines organizational transfer of knowledge, often from headquarters to subsidiaries, from developed country sites to emerging country sites, or from host to local employees. Yes, recent research, such as Prahalad’s Bottom of the Pyramid, raises the question of reverse transfer of knowledge, or whether knowledge could and should be transferred from local sites to home country sites within an organization. As several emerging economies build their capabilities in knowledge, research and development, marketing, and the like, it only makes sense to consider what type of knowledge and how to transfer it in reverse or bi-directional manners. This paper takes one step back in the process. Rather than focusing on what knowledge transfer may make sense within an organization, we consider what types of knowledge are important for foreigners to know at the initial stages of engagement abroad as they consider whether to do business in an emerging country.

Examining Relationships between Culture, Creativity and Business Stage in an Emerging Market: A Categorical Data Analysis of Vietnam’s Data Set

In this article, we offer a new way of exploring relationships between three different dimensions of a business operation, namely the stage of business development, the methods of creativity and the major cultural values. Although separately, each of these has gained enormous attention from the management research community, evidenced by a large volume of research studies, there have been not many studies that attempt to describe the logic that connect these three important aspects of a business; let alone empirical evidences that support any significant relationships among these variables. The paper also provides a data set and an empirical investigation on that data set, using a categorical data analysis, to conclude that examinations of these possible relationships are meaningful and possible for seemingly unquantifiable information. The results also show that the most significant category among all creativity methods employed in Vietnamese enterprises is the “creative disciplines” rule in the “entrepreneurial phase,” while in general creative disciplines have played a critical role in explaining the structure of our data sample, for both stages of development in our consideration.