Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

The broad-scale distribution and abundance of Scyphomedusae in Irish waters

Scyphomedusae are receiving increasing recognition as key components of marine ecosystems. However, information on their distribution and abundance beyond coastal waters is generally lacking. Organising access to such data is critical to effectively transpose findings from laboratory, mesocosm and small scale studies to the scale of ecological processes. These data are also required to identify the risks of detrimental impacts of jellyfish blooms on human activities. In Ireland, such risks raise concerns among the public, but foremost amongst the professionals of the aquaculture and fishing sectors. The present work looked at the opportunity to get access to new information on the distribution of jellyfish around Ireland mostly by using existing infrastructures and programmes. The analysis of bycatch data collected during the Irish groundfish surveys provided new insights into the distribution of Pelagia noctiluca over an area >160 000 km2, a scale never reached before in a region of the Northeast Atlantic (140 sampling stations). Similarly, 4 years of data collected during the Irish Sea juvenile gadoid fish survey provided the first spatially, explicit, information on the abundance of Aurelia aurita and Cyanea spp. (Cyanea capillata and Cyanea lamarckii) throughout the Irish Sea (> 200 sampling events). In addition, the use of ships of opportunity allowed repeated samplings (N = 37) of an >100 km long transect between Dublin (Ireland) and Holyhead (Wales, UK), therefore providing two years of seasonal monitoring of the occurrence of scyphomedusae in that region. Finally, in order to inform the movements of C. capillata in an area where many negative interactions with bathers occur, the horizontal and vertical movements of 5 individual C. capillata were investigated through acoustic tracking.

Monitoring the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the island of Ireland using the MERIS global vegetation index

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

The impacts of past land-use on the ecology of an ancient woodland in south-west Ireland

A multi-disciplinary study was conducted to compare stands of ancient and secondary origin within a single wood, the Gearagh woodland, County Cork. These sites were compared with adjacent areas of grassland, which provided a reference for the former land-use (pasture) of the secondary woodland. A historical study confirmed that while the core of the Gearagh has been subject to minimal human interference, other sections have been cleared in the past for agricultural purposes. Investigations into soil structure and composition showed that soil properties in these secondary woodland areas were significantly altered by this past woodland clearance and conversion to agriculture, while the soil of the ancient woodland showed little signs of disturbance. The vegetation community also differed between the two woodland areas, partly due to altered environmental conditions. Many of the ancient woodland plant species were unable to form a persistent seed bank, while there was increased representation of species associated with more open-habitat conditions in the seed bank of the secondary woodland. While germination of woodland species was low in all sites, overall, seeds tended to germinate more successfully in the ancient woodland. The ancient woodland also provided a suitable habitat for many soil and ground detritivores, most notably enchytraeids, although earthworms were not abundant. Past agricultural use, however, changed the decomposer community considerably, with increased representation of earthworm species and a decline in the abundance of enchytraeids in the secondary stands. In conclusion, the legacies of historical agricultural activities can continue to significantly affect the structure and composition of present-day woodlands so that they may differ considerably from undisturbed ancient woodland stands, even within the same woodland. A greater understanding of the origin, development and ecological functioning of ancient woodlands should aid in determining future conservation and management requirements.

Biodiversity change in the Irish uplands - the effects of grazing management

As a prominent form of land use across much of upland Europe, extensive livestock grazing may hold the key to the sustainable management of these landscapes. Recent agricultural policy reform, however, has resulted in a decline in upland sheep numbers, prompting concern for the biodiversity value of these areas. This study quantifies the effects of varying levels of grazing management on plant, ground beetle and breeding bird diversity and assemblage in the uplands and lowlands of hill sheep farms in County Kerry, Ireland. Farms represent a continuum of light to heavy grazing, measured using a series of field indicators across several habitats, such as the internationally important blanket bog, home to the ground beetle, Carabus clatratus. Linear mixed effects modelling and non-metric multidimensional scaling are employed to disentangle the most influential management and environmental factors. Grazing state may be determined by the presence of Molinia caerulea or Nardus stricta, and variables such as % traditional ewes, % vegetation litter and % scrub prove valuable indicators of diversity. Measures of ecosystem functioning, e.g. plant biomass (nutrient cycling) and % vegetation cover (erosion rates) are influenced by plant diversity, which is influenced by grazing management. Levels of the ecosystem service, soil organic carbon, vary with ground beetle abundance and diversity, potentially influencing carbon sequestration and thereby climate change. The majority of species from all three taxa are found in the lowlands, with the exception of birds such as meadow pipit and skylark. The scale of measurement should be determined by the size and mobility of the species in question. The challenge is to manage these high nature value landscapes using agri-environment schemes which enhance biodiversity by maintaining structural heterogeneity across a range of scales, altitudes and habitats whilst integrating the decisions of people living and working in these marginal areas.