Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Breaking ranks: the emergence of representative associations in the Irish armed forces 1989-1992

This study contexualises the relationship between the armed forces and the civil authority in Ireland using and revising the theoretical framework advanced by Huntington. It tracks the evolution of the idea of a representive body for soldiers in the late 1980s, to the setting up of statutory associations under the Defence Amendment Act 1990. The study considers Irish soldiers political agitation and their use of peaceful democratic activities to achieve their aims. It highlights the fundamental policy arguments that were made against the idea of representation for the army and positions those arguments in the study of civil-military relations. Utilising unique access to secret Department of Defence files, it reveals in-depth ideological arguments advanced by the military authories in Ireland against independent representation. This thesis provides an academic study of the establishment of PDFORRA. It answers key questions regarding the change in the position of Irish government who were categorically opposed to the idea of representation in the army. It illustrates the involvement of other agencies such as the European Organisation of Military Associations (Euromil) reveals reciprocal support by the Irish associations to other emerging groups in Spain. Accessing as yet unpublished Department of Defence files, study analyses tension between the military authorities and the government. It highlights for the first time the role of enlisted personnel in the shaping of new state structures and successfully dismmisses Huntingtons theoretical contention that enlisted personnel are of no consequence in the study of civil-military relations. It fills a gap in our understanding, identified by Finer, as to how politicisation of soldiers takes place. This thesis brings a new dimension to the discipline of civil-military relations and creates new knowledge that will enhance our understanding of an area not covered previously.

Studies on equine milk and comparative studies on equine and bovine milk systems

The composition of equine milk differs considerably from that of the milk of the principal dairying species, i.e., the cow, buffalo, goat and sheep. Because equine milk resembles human milk in many respects and is claimed to have special therapeutic properties, it is becoming increasingly popular in Western Europe, where it is produced on large farms in several countries. Equine milk is considered to be highly digestible, rich in essential nutrients and to possess an optimum whey protein:casein ratio, making it very suitable as a substitute for bovine milk in paediatric dietetics. There is some scientific basis for the special nutritional and health-giving properties of equine milk but this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the composition and physico-chemical properties of equine milk which is required to fully exploit its potential in human nutrition. Quantification and distribution of the nitrogenous components and principal salts of equine milk are reported. The effects of the high concentration of ionic calcium, large casein micelles (~ 260 nm), low protein, lack of a sulphydryl group in equine β-lactoglobulin and a very low level of κ-casein on the physico-chemical properties of equine milk are reported. This thesis provides an insight into the stability of equine casein micelles to heat, ethanol, high pressure, rennet or acid. Differences in rennet- and acid-induced coagulation between equine and bovine milk are attributed not only to the low casein content of equine milk but also to differences in the mechanism by which the respective micelles are stabilized. It has been reported that β-casein plays a role in the stabilization of equine casein micelles and proteomic techniques support this view. In this study, equine κ-casein appeared to be resistant to hydrolysis by calf chymosin but equine β-casein was readily hydrolysed. Resolution of equine milk proteins by urea-PAGE showed the multi-phosphorylated isoforms of equine αs- and β-caseins and capillary zone electrophoresis showed 3 to 7 phosphorylated residues in equine β-casein. In vitro digestion of equine β-casein by pepsin and Corolase PP™ did not produce casomorphins BCM-5 or BCM-7, believed to be harmful to human health. Electron microscopy provided very clear, detailed images of equine casein micelles in their native state and when renneted or acidified. Equine milk formed flocs rather then a gel when renneted or acidified which is supported by dynamic oscillatory analysis. The results presented in this thesis will assist in the development of new products from equine milk for human consumption which will retain some of its unique compositional and health-giving properties.

Diverse heritage: exploring literary identity in the American Southwest

Since the age of colonisation, the territory of New Mexico has been exposed to a diversity of cultural influence. Throughout recorded history various forces have battled for control of this territory, resulting in a continuous redefinition of its political, geographic and economic boundaries. Early representations of the Southwest have been defined as “strategies of negotiation” between Anglo, Hispanic and Native populations, strategies that are particularly evident in the territory of New Mexico. The contemporary identity of regions like northern New Mexico have destabilised the notion of what constitutes racial purity in regions which are defined by diversity. This thesis aims to evaluate the literary history of northern New Mexico in order to determine how exposure to a diversity of cultural influence has affected the region’s identity. An analysis of Anglo and Native writers from northern New Mexico will illustrate that these racial groups were influenced by the same geographic landscape. As such, their writing displays many characteristics unique to the region. In providing a comparative analysis of Native and Anglo authors from northern New Mexico, this thesis seeks to demonstrate commonalities of theme, structure and content. In doing so this research encourages a new perspective on New Mexico writing one which effectively de-centres contemporary notions of what the American canon should be.

Fabrication and characterisation of semiconductor nanowires and metal interconnects

One-dimensional semiconductor nanowires are considered to be promising materials for future nanoelectronic applications. However, before these nanowires can be integrated into such applications, a thorough understanding of their growth behaviour is necessary. In particular, methods that allow the control over nanowire growth are deemed especially important as it is these methods that will enable the control of nanowire dimensions such as length and diameter (high aspect ratios). The production of nanowires with high-aspect ratios is vital in order to take advantage of the unique properties experienced at the nanoscale, thus allowing us to maximise their use in devices. Additionally, the development of low-resistivity interconnects is desirable in order to connect such nanowires in multi-nanowire components. Consequently, this thesis aims to discuss the synthesis and characterisation of germanium (Ge) nanowires and platinum (Pt) interconnects. Particular emphasis is placed on manipulating the nanowire growth kinetics to produce high aspect ratio structures. The discussion of Pt interconnects focuses on the development of low-resistivity devices and the electrical and structural analysis of those devices. Chapter 1 reviews the most critical aspects of Ge nanowire growth which must be understood before they can be integrated into future nanodevices. These features include the synthetic methods employed to grow Ge nanowires, the kinetic and thermodynamic aspects of their growth and nanowire morphology control. Chapter 2 outlines the experimental methods used to synthesise and characterise Ge nanowires as well as the methods used to fabricate and analyse Pt interconnects. Chapter 3 discusses the control of Ge nanowire growth kinetics via the manipulation of the supersaturation of Ge in the Au/Ge binary alloy system. This is accomplished through the use of bi-layer films, which pre-form Au/Ge alloy catalysts before the introduction of the Ge precursor. The growth from these catalysts is then compared with Ge nanowire growth from standard elemental Au seeds. Nanowires grown from pre-formed Au/Ge alloy seeds demonstrate longer lengths and higher growth rates than those grown from standard Au seeds. In-situ TEM heating on the Au/Ge bi-layer films is used to support the growth characteristics observed. Chapter 4 extends the work of chapter 3 by utilising Au/Ag/Ge tri-layer films to enhance the growth rates and lengths of Ge nanowires. These nanowires are grown from Au/Ag/Ge ternary alloy catalysts. Once again, the supersaturation is influenced, only this time it is through the simultaneous manipulation of both the solute concentration and equilibrium concentration of Ge in the Au/Ag/Ge ternary alloy system. The introduction of Ag to the Au/Ge binary alloy lowers the equilibrium concentration, thus increasing the nanowire growth rate and length. Nanowires with uniform diameters were obtained via synthesis from AuxAg1-x alloy nanoparticles. Manifestation of the Gibbs-Thomson effect, resulting from the dependence of the mean nanowire length as a function of diameter, was observed for all of the nanowires grown from the AuxAg1-x nanoparticles. Finally, in-situ TEM heating was used to support the nanowire growth characteristics. Chapter 5 details the fabrication and characterisation of Pt interconnects deposited by electron beam induced deposition of two different precursors. The fabrication is conducted inside a dual beam FIB. The electrical and structural characteristics of interconnects deposited from a standard organometallic precursor and a novel carbon-free precursor are compared. The electrical performance of the carbon-free interconnects is shown to be superior to that of the organometallic devices and this is correlated to the structural composition of both interconnects via in-situ TEM heating and HAADF-STEM analysis. Annealing of the interconnects is carried out under two different atmospheres in order to reduce the electrical resistivity even further. Finally, chapter 6 presents some important conclusions and summarises each of the previous chapters.

Exploring the Zionist evolution of Robert Briscoe: History and memory

Robert Briscoe was the Dublin born son of Lithuanian and German-Jewish immigrants. As a young man he joined Sinn Féin and was an important figure in the War of Independence due to a role as one of the IRA’s main gun-procuring agents. He took the anti-Treaty side during an internecine Civil War, mainly due to the influence of Eamon de Valera and retained a filial devotion towards him for the rest of his life. In 1926 he was a founding member of Fianna Fáil, de Valera’s breakaway republican party, which would dominate twentieth-century Irish politics. He was first elected as a Fianna Fáil T.D. (Teachta Dála, Deputy to the Dáil) in 1927, and successfully defended his seat eleven times becoming the first Jewish Lord Mayor of Dublin in 1956, an honour that was repeated in 1961. On this basis alone, it can be argued that Briscoe was a significant presence in an embryonic Irish political culture; however, when his role in the 1930s Jewish immigration endeavor is acknowledged, it is clear that he played a unique part in one of the most contentious political and social discourses of the pre-war years. This was reinforced when Briscoe embraced Zionism in a belated realisation that the survival of his European co-religionists could only be guaranteed if an independent Jewish state existed. This information is to a certain degree public knowledge; however, the full extent of his involvement as an immigration advocate for potential Jewish refugees, and the seniority he achieved in the New Zionist Organisation (Revisionists) has not been fully recognised. This is partly explicable because researchers have based their assessment of Briscoe on an incomplete political archive in the National Library of Ireland (NLI). The vast majority of documentation pertaining to his involvement in the immigration endeavor has not been available to scholars and remains the private property of Robert Briscoe’s son, Ben Briscoe. The lack of immigration files in the NLI was reinforced by the fact that information about Briscoe’s Revisionist engagement was donated to the Jabotinsky Institute in Tel Aviv and can only be accessed physically by visiting Israel. Therefore, even though these twin endeavors have been commented on by a number of academics, their assessments have tended to be based on an incomplete archive, which was supplemented by Briscoe’s autobiographical memoir published in 1958. This study will attempt to fill in the missing gaps in Briscoe’s complex political narrative by incorporating the rarely used private papers of Robert Briscoe, and the difficult to access Briscoe files in Tel Aviv. This undertaking was only possible when Mr.Ben Briscoe graciously granted me full and unrestricted access to his father’s papers, and after a month-long research trip to the Jabotinsky Institute in Tel Aviv. Access to this rarely used documentation facilitated a holistic examination of Briscoe’s complex and multifaceted political reality. It revealed the full extent of Briscoe’s political and social evolution as the Nazi instigated Jewish emigration crisis reached catastrophic proportions. He was by turn Fianna Fáil nationalist, Jewish immigration advocate and senior Revisionist actor on a global stage. The study will examine the contrasting political and social forces that initiated each stage of Briscoe’s Zionist awakening, and in the process will fill a major gap in Irish-Jewish historiography by revealing the full extent of his Revisionist engagement.

The evolution of the medical professions in eighteenth-century Ireland: An institutional perspective

Ireland, in the eighteenth century, followed the classic tripartite division of regular medical practitioners into physicians, surgeons and apothecaries. At the beginning of the century surgeons and apothecaries were regarded as mere tradesmen, but by the end of the century both were regarded as professionals and had the right to regulate their respective professions. Practitioners in different regions of Europe developed in a different manner, and eighteenth-century practitioners in Ireland developed independently from their English counterparts. In common with Britain and Europe in the eighteenth century, the total number of practitioners increased in Ireland, and by the end of the century, apothecaries were the largest group in Dublin, closely followed by the surgeons. Surgeons and apothecaries at the start of the eighteenth century belonged to the same guild. However in mid-century, St Luke's guild of apothecaries was established and this provided the apothecaries with a new identity that allowed them to pursue auto regulation, rather than hitherto, when they had been regulated by the physicians. This was vital to the apothecaries as they were in direct commercial competition with both the physicians and the surgeons and faced increasing pressure from both druggists and the disparate group of practitioners known as the irregulars. The 1765 County Infirmaries Act established a hospital in virtually every county in Ireland, and cast the surgeon as the primary medical officer in the countrywide network of hospitals. This legislation, which was unique in Europe, had the unintended consequence of elevating the status of the surgeons, as prior to this physicians were always in the ascendancy in the voluntary hospitals in Ireland and Britain, in contrast to France. The status of the surgeons was further enhanced by the establishment of the College of Surgeons in Ireland in 1784, which provided them with a new corporate identity, the authority to regulate the profession countrywide, and, also, the ability to educate surgeons in Ireland. The establishment of the College of Surgeons placed further pressure on the apothecaries to demonstrate that they also had a recognisable identity, and the authority to regulate their own profession. This was achieved with the 1791 Apothecaries Act which established the Apothecaries Hall and give the apothecaries the right to regulate themselves. This innovative legislation deemed the apothecaries a profession, and was enacted twenty-four years prior to similar legislation in Britain. Commercial pressure from druggists and, probably, irregulars expedited the requirement of the apothecaries to establish a new corporate identity, in order to distance themselves from these groups. The changing status of both apothecaries and surgeons had little effect on the physicians as a group, and, despite being the beneficiaries of a generous bequest from Sir Patrick Dun in 1711 to provide medical chairs in Dublin, the physicians displayed an inertia during the eighteenth century that was not in keeping with the developments that occurred in the contemporary Dublin medical world. The fact that it took ninety-five years, and that five acts of parliament, two House of Commons enquiries and a House of Lords enquiry were required to ensure that Dun's wishes were brought to fruition demonstrates that the physicians did not develop at the same pace as the other medical groups in the city. Had Dun’s bequest been implemented as he desired, Dublin, with a number of voluntary hospitals, would have been well placed to provide comprehensive tuition for medical students in the eighteenth century. It was not until the nineteenth century that the city, and the populace, benefited from this legacy. This thesis will trace these developments in the context of changes that occurred in contemporary medical education and diagnosis in Ireland, Britain and France. It will demonstrate that Irish practitioners developed independently, influenced mainly by local issues, but also by those who had travelled abroad and returned to Ireland with new concepts and ideas, ensuring that Irish medical practitioners had the institutional structure that could encompass the diagnostic and regulatory changes that would become accepted in the nineteenth century.

Landscapes of kingship in early medieval Ireland, AD 400–1150

This thesis explores the evolution of kingship in early medieval Ireland (AD 400–1150) through a kingdom based and multi-scalar approach to royal landscapes. Through exploring the role of place and landscape in the construction of early medieval Irish kingship, this study will assess the relationship between the social, economic and ideological roles of the king in Irish society. Kingship in Ireland was vested in places, such that royal landscapes were the pre-eminent symbol of regality and authority. As such, an interdisciplinary study of kingship grounded in archaeological methodologies has a unique potential to contribute to our knowledge of the practice of kingship. Consequently, this research considers the material apparatus of different scales of kingships and explores the role of landscape in the construction of kingship and the evolution of kingdoms. It takes two major case studies; (i) Cashel, Munster and the Éoganachta federation; and (ii) the Uí Néill, Tara and the Síl nÁedo Sláine kingdom of Brega. Through interdisciplinary methodologies it charts the genesis and development of political federations, focusing specifically on the role that royal landscapes’ played in their evolution. Similarly, this thesis engages critically with the nature of assembly places and practices in Ireland, and focuses specifically on issues pertaining to the nature of assembly and the archaeological manifestation of such practices. It includes a list of 115 landscapes identified as assembly places, and through the analysis of this material, this thesis examines the ways in which different types of royal sites articulated together to create royal landscapes implicated in the exercise of kingship, and the construction and maintenance of authority. Moreover, through the analysis of assembly places within the context of the development of kingdoms, and structures of jurisdiction and administration, it also investigates the evolution of supra-regional scales of identity and community associated with the emergence of major political federations in early medieval Ireland.

Prophets of the beast: the modernist esotericism of D.H. Lawrence and W.B. Yeats

This thesis analyses the influence of the esoteric tradition on D.H. Lawrence and W.B. Yeats’ thought and examines both authors’ writings in light of the antidemocratic political religions that emerged during and after their respective careers. While a number of extant studies investigate the connection between modernism and the occult and a number of critics have discussed the importance of antidemocratic politics to modernism, this study is unique in its emphasis on the relationship between modernist esotericism and antidemocratic politics, and in its insistence that the interconnection between the two constitutes a fundamental part of both authors’ world-views. This study calls for the development of a multivalent understanding of modernism, which appears as neither a “cultural movement identifiable with bourgeois, capitalist, paternalist, ethnocentrist, phallocentrist, and logocentrist ideologies” (Surette 5) nor entirely the opposite; Romantic, feministic, primitivistic and countercultural. Rather, modernism will be shown to have encompassed both of these ideological orientations, effectively operating on a double front in its crusade to establish a new age. This complexity is visible in both Lawrence and Yeats’ work, as both authors advocate a return to traditional structures while simultaneously endeavouring to usher Western civilisation into a new modern paradigm. Although they primarily grounded their writings in a mythico-pastoral discourse that masked the practical implications of their revolutionary agendas, both authors possessed an attraction to Futurist thought and, albeit rarely, showed an awareness that the change they envisioned could not be brought about without a radical intervention in the political and economic sectors – an intervention that would necessarily take place through the medium of the “machine” from which they were often so adamant to distance themselves. This fusion of technophilic and Arcadian thought-currents – dubbed “archeofuturism” by the French right-wing intellectual Guillaume Faye – constitutes the central focus of this discussion of Lawrentian and Yeatsian thought.

Chamber investigations of atmospheric mercury oxidation chemistry

Mercury is a potent neurotoxin even at low concentrations. The unoxidised metal has a high vapour pressure and can circulate through the atmosphere, but when oxidised can deposit and be accumulated through the food chain. This work aims to investigate the oxidation processes of atmospheric Hg0(g). The first part describes efforts to make a portable Hg sensor based on Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (CEAS). The detection limit achieved was 66 ngm−3 for a 10 second averaging time. The second part of this work describes experiments carried out in a temperature controlled atmospheric simulation chamber in the Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA. The chamber was built around an existing Hg CRDS system that could measure Hg concentrations in the chamber of<100 ngm−3 at 1 Hz enabling reactions to be followed. The main oxidant studied was bromine, which was quantified with a LED based CEAS system across the chamber. Hg oxidation in the chamber was found to be mostly too slow for current models to explain. A seven reaction model was developed and tested to find which parameters were capable of explaining the deviation. The model was overdetermined and no unique solution could be found. The most likely possibility was that the first oxidation step Hg + Br →HgBr was slower than the preferred literature value by a factor of two. However, if the more uncertain data at low [Br2] was included then the only parameter that could explain the experiments was a fast, temperature independent dissociation of HgBr some hundreds of times faster than predicted thermolysis or photolysis rates. Overall this work concluded that to quantitatively understand the reaction of Hg with Br2, the intermediates HgBr and Br must be measured. This conclusion will help to guide the planning of future studies of atmospheric Hg chemistry.

Subterfuge-safe trust management for delegation of permissions in open environments

Open environments involve distributed entities interacting with each other in an open manner. Many distributed entities are unknown to each other but need to collaborate and share resources in a secure fashion. Usually resource owners alone decide who is trusted to access their resources. Since resource owners in open environments do not have a complete picture of all trusted entities, trust management frameworks are used to ensure that only authorized entities will access requested resources. Every trust management system has limitations, and the limitations can be exploited by malicious entities. One vulnerability is due to the lack of globally unique interpretation for permission specifications. This limitation means that a malicious entity which receives a permission in one domain may misuse the permission in another domain via some deceptive but apparently authorized route; this malicious behaviour is called subterfuge. This thesis develops a secure approach, Subterfuge Safe Trust Management (SSTM), that prevents subterfuge by malicious entities. SSTM employs the Subterfuge Safe Authorization Language (SSAL) which uses the idea of a local permission with a globally unique interpretation (localPermission) to resolve the misinterpretation of permissions. We model and implement SSAL with an ontology-based approach, SSALO, which provides a generic representation for knowledge related to the SSAL-based security policy. SSALO enables integration of heterogeneous security policies which is useful for secure cooperation among principals in open environments where each principal may have a different security policy with different implementation. The other advantage of an ontology-based approach is the Open World Assumption, whereby reasoning over an existing security policy is easily extended to include further security policies that might be discovered in an open distributed environment. We add two extra SSAL rules to support dynamic coalition formation and secure cooperation among coalitions. Secure federation of cloud computing platforms and secure federation of XMPP servers are presented as case studies of SSTM. The results show that SSTM provides robust accountability for the use of permissions in federation. It is also shown that SSAL is a suitable policy language to express the subterfuge-safe policy statements due to its well-defined semantics, ease of use, and integrability.