Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Compilation and analysis of integrated regional input-output tables for NUTS 2 regions in Ireland

In 1966, Roy Geary, Director of the ESRI, noted “the absence of any kind of import and export statistics for regions is a grave lacuna” and further noted that if regional analyses were to be developed then regional Input-Output Tables must be put on the “regular statistical assembly line”. Forty-five years later, the lacuna lamented by Geary still exists and remains the most significant challenge to the construction of regional Input-Output Tables in Ireland. The continued paucity of sufficient regional data to compile effective regional Supply and Use and Input-Output Tables has retarded the capacity to construct sound regional economic models and provide a robust evidence base with which to formulate and assess regional policy. This study makes a first step towards addressing this gap by presenting the first set of fully integrated, symmetric, Supply and Use and domestic Input-Output Tables compiled for the NUTS 2 regions in Ireland: The Border, Midland and Western region and the Southern & Eastern region. These tables are general purpose in nature and are consistent fully with the official national Supply & Use and Input-Output Tables, and the regional accounts. The tables are constructed using a survey-based or bottom-up approach rather than employing modelling techniques, yielding more robust and credible tables. These tables are used to present a descriptive statistical analysis of the two administrative NUTS 2 regions in Ireland, drawing particular attention to the underlying structural differences of regional trade balances and composition of Gross Value Added in those regions. By deriving regional employment multipliers, Domestic Demand Employment matrices are constructed to quantify and illustrate the supply chain impact on employment. In the final part of the study, the predictive capability of the Input-Output framework is tested over two time periods. For both periods, the static Leontief production function assumptions are relaxed to allow for labour productivity. Comparative results from this experiment are presented.

Survey on demand side sensitivity to power quality in Ireland

Power systems require a reliable supply and good power quality. The impact of power supply interruptions is well acknowledged and well quantified. However, a system may perform reliably without any interruptions but may have poor power quality. Although poor power quality has cost implications for all actors in the electrical power systems, only some users are aware of its impact. Power system operators are much attuned to the impact of low power quality on their equipment and have the appropriate monitoring systems in place. However, over recent years certain industries have come increasingly vulnerable to negative cost implications of poor power quality arising from changes in their load characteristics and load sensitivities, and therefore increasingly implement power quality monitoring and mitigation solutions. This paper reviews several historical studies which investigate the cost implications of poor power quality on industry. These surveys are largely focused on outages, whilst the impact of poor power quality such as harmonics, short interruptions, voltage dips and swells, and transients is less well studied and understood. This paper examines the difficulties in quantifying the costs of poor power quality, and uses the chi-squared method to determine the consequences for industry of power quality phenomenon using a case study of over 40 manufacturing and data centres in Ireland.

Multi-parametric metabolic assessment of cells under stress conditions

Glycolysis, glutaminolysis, the Krebs cycle and oxidative phosphorylation are the main metabolic pathways. Exposing cells to key metabolic substrates (glucose, glutamine and pyruvate); investigation of the contribution of substrates in stress conditions such as uncoupling and hypoxia was conducted. Glycolysis, O2 consumption, O2 and ATP levels and hypoxia inducible factor (HIF) signalling in PC12 cells were investigated. Upon uncoupling with FCCP mitochondria were depolarised similarly in all cases, but a strong increase in respiration was only seen in the cells fed on glutamine with either glucose or pyruvate. Inhibition of glutaminolysis reversed the glutamine dependant effect. Differential regulation of the respiratory response to FCCP by metabolic environment suggests mitochondrial uncoupling has a potential for substrate-specific inhibition of cell function. At reduced O2 availability (4 % and 0 % O2), cell bioenergetics and local oxygenation varied depending on the substrate composition. Results indicate that both supply and utilisation of key metabolic substrates can affect the pattern of HIF-1/2α accumulation by differentially regulating iO2¬, ATP levels and Akt/Erk/AMPK pathways. Inhibition of key metabolic pathways can modulate HIF regulatory pathways, metabolic responses and survival of cancer cells in hypoxia. Hypoxia leads to transcriptional activation, by HIF, of pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) kinase which phosphorylates and inhibits PDH, a mitochondrial enzyme that converts pyruvate into acetyl-CoA. The levels of PDH (total and phosphorylated), PDH kinase and HIF-1α were analysed in HCT116 and HCT116 SCO2-/- (deficient in complex IV of the respiratory chain) grown under 20.9 % and 3 % O2. Data indicate that regulation of PDH can occur in a manner independent of the HIF-1/PDH kinase 1 axis, mitochondrial respiration and the demand for acetyl-CoA. Collectively these results can be applied to many diseases; reduced nutrient supply and O2 during ischemia/stroke, hypoglycaemia in diabetes mellitus and cancer associated changes in uncoupling protein expression levels.