Established cardiovascular disease and CVD risk factors in a primary care population of middle-aged Irish men and women

Contemporary Irish data on the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are sparse. The primary aims of this study were (1) to estimate the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, in the general population of men and women between the ages of 50 and 69 years; and (2) to estimate the proportion of individuals in this age group at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events on the basis of pre-existing cardiovascular disease or as defined by the Framingham equation. Participants were drawn from the practice lists of 17 general practices in Cork and Kerry using stratified random sampling. A total of 1018 people attended for screening (490 men, 48%) from 1473 who were invited, a response rate of 69.1%. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and glucose intolerance are common in the population of men and women aged between 50 and 69 years. Almost half the participants were overweight and a further quarter met current international criteria for obesity, one of the highest recorded prevalence rates for obesity in a European population sample. Forty per cent of the population reported minimal levels of physical activity and 19% were current cigarette smokers. Approximately half the sample had blood pressure readings consistent with international criteria for the diagnosis of hypertension, but only 38% of these individuals were known to be hypertensive. Eighty per cent of the population sample had a cholesterol concentration in excess of 5 mmol/l. Almost 4% of the population had Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, of whom 30% were previously undiagnosed. A total of 137 participants (13.5%) had a history or ECG findings consistent with established cardiovascular disease. Of the remaining 881 individuals in the primary prevention population, a total of 20 high-risk individuals (19 male) had a risk of a coronary heart disease event 30% over ten years according to the Framingham risk equation, giving an overall population prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3 - 3.0). At a risk level 20% over ten years, an additional 91 individuals (8.9%) were identified. Thus a total of 24.4% of the population were at risk either through pre-existing CVD (13.5%) or an estimated 10-year risk exceeding 20% according to the Framingham risk equation (10.9%). Thus a substantial proportion of middle-aged men are at high risk of CVD. The findings emphasise the scale of the CVD epidemic in Ireland and the need for ongoing monitoring of risk factors at the population level and the need to develop preventive strategies at both the clinical and societal level.

Effects of synbiotics on cancer risk biomarkers

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cause of death from cancer in the world and second most common (behind lung cancer) in developed countries. In recent years there has been much interest in the potential use of prebiotics, probiotics and synbiotics in the prevention and treatment of CRC. We have previously shown that synbiotic consumption in Azoxymethane treated rats modulates the immune system, influences the genotoxic potential of caecal contents and reduces the number of colonic tumours compared to control rats who did not receive the synbiotic. The aim of the current study was to identify biomarkers suitable for use as cancer risk markers and as intervention markers. A second aim was to determine the influence of synbiotic consumption on cancer risk biomarkers such as in vivo colonic mucosal proliferation and genotoxic damage along with examining the genotoxic, cytotoxic and tumour promoting potential of faecal water (FW). Synbiotic consumption altered the composition of the gastrointestinal flora and reduced in vivo genotoxic damage and the genotoxic potential of FW in cancer and polyp subjects. Synbiotic consumption also reduced the proliferative activity in the colonic mucosa in polyp subjects. In both cancer and polyp subjects gene expression in the colonic mucosa was modulated in synbiotic consuming subjects. In this and other studies the activity of natural killer cells, the level of PGE2 in FW, IL-12 production by PBMCs, genotoxic damage in the colonic mucosa and the tumour promoting activities of FW have been identified as possible biomarkers of cancer risk. Future large scale studies investigating these parameters in healthy and diseased individuals are needed to confirm the suitability of these markers in assessing cancer risk and the role of synbiotics in modulating them.

Prediction and prevention of venous thrombosis in pregnancy

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains the leading cause of maternal mortality. Reports identified further research is required in obese and women post caesarean section (CS). Risk factors for VTE during pregnancy are periodically absent indicating the need for a simple and effective screening tool for pregnancy. Perturbation of the uteroplacental haemostasis has been implicated in placenta mediated pregnancy complications. This thesis had 4 main aims: 1) To investigate anticoagulant effects following a fixed thromboprophylaxis dose in healthy women post elective CS. 2) To evaluate the calibrated automated thrombogram (CAT) assay as a potential predictive tool for thrombosis in pregnancy. 3) To compare the anticoagulant effects of fixed versus weight adjusted thromboprophylaxis dose in morbidly obese pregnant women. 4) To investigate the LMWH effects on human haemostatic gene and antigen expression in placentae and plasma from the uteroplacental , maternal and fetal circulation. Tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI), thrombin antithrombin (TAT), CAT and anti-Xa levels were analysed. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to quantify mRNA and protein expression of TFPI and TF in placental tissue. In women post CS, anti-Xa levels do not reflect the full anticoagulant effects of LMWH. LMWH thromboprophylaxis in this healthy cohort of patients appears to have a sustained effect in reducing excess thrombin production post elective CS. The results of this study suggest that predicting VTE in pregnant women using CAT assay is not possible at present time. The prothrombotic state in pregnant morbidly obese women was substantially attenuated by weight adjusted but not at fixed LMWH doses. LMWH may be effective in reducing in- vivo thrombin production in the uteroplacental circulation of thrombophilic women. All these results collectively suggest that at appropriate dosage, LMWH is effective in attenuating excess thrombin generation, in low risk pregnant women post caesarean section or moderate to high risk pregnant women who are morbidly obese or tested positive for thrombophilia. The results of the studies provided data to inform evidence-based practice to improve the outcome for pregnant women at risk of thrombosis.

Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

Objective: To estimate the absolute treatment effect of statin therapy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death) for the individual patient aged C70 years. Methods: Prediction models for MACE were derived in patients aged C70 years with (n = 2550) and without (n = 3253) vascular disease from the ‘‘PROspective Study of Pravastatin in Elderly at Risk’’ (PROSPER) trial and validated in the ‘‘Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease’’ (SMART) cohort study (n = 1442) and the ‘‘Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid Lowering Arm’’ (ASCOT-LLA) trial (n = 1893), respectively, using competing risk analysis. Prespecified predictors were various clinical characteristics including statin treatment. Individual absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for MACE in 5 and 10 years were estimated by subtracting ontreatment from off-treatment risk. Results: Individual ARRs were higher in elderly patients with vascular disease [5-year ARRs: median 5.1 %, interquartile range (IQR) 4.0–6.2 %, 10-year ARRs: median 7.8 %, IQR 6.8–8.6 %] than in patients without vascular disease (5-year ARRs: median 1.7 %, IQR 1.3–2.1 %, 10-year ARRs: 2.9 %, IQR 2.3–3.6 %). Ninetyeight percent of patients with vascular disease had a 5-year ARR C2.0 %, compared to 31 % of patients without vascular disease. Conclusions: With a multivariable prediction model the absolute treatment effect of a statin on MACE for individual elderly patients with and without vascular disease can be quantified. Because of high ARRs, treating all patients is more beneficial than prediction-based treatment for secondary prevention of MACE. For primary prevention of MACE, the prediction model can be used to identify those patients who benefit meaningfully from statin therapy.

Perceived risk of death in older primary care patients

There is a large gap between life expectancy and healthy life years at age 65. To reduce this gap, it is necessary that people with medical concerns perceived at higher risk of adverse outcomes are readily identified and treated. The same goes for the need to implement prevention plans. The main objectives of this study are to, in a first step, (a) estimate the percentage of medical concerns, (b) identify factors associated with this concern; in a second step, (c) estimate the perceived risk of death, and (d) evaluate the ability of medical concerns to predict this risk. Results show that the existence and severity of medical concerns are crucial in the prediction of perceived risk of death. Early identification of severity of medical concerns and the availability and adequacy of informal caregiving should allow healthcare professionals to promptly initiate an appropriate assessment and treatment of older patients.

Effectiveness of Depression-Suicidal Behaviour Gatekeeper training among police officers in three European regions: outcomes of the Optimising Suicide Prevention Programmes and their Implementation in Europe (OSPI-Europe) study

Background: Gatekeeper training for community facilitators, to identify and respond to those at risk of suicide, forms an important part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes. Aims: This study examined the effects of gatekeeper training on attitudes, knowledge and confidence of police officers in dealing with persons at risk of suicide. Methods: A total of 828 police officers across three European regions participated in a 4-hour training programme which addressed the epidemiology of depression and suicidal behaviour, symptoms of depression, warning signs and risk factors associated with suicidal behaviour, motivating help-seeking behaviour, dealing with acute suicidal crisis and informing bereaved relatives. Participants completed internationally validated questionnaires assessing stigmatising attitudes, knowledge about depression and confidence in dealing with suicidal persons pre- and post-training. Results: There were significant differences among countries in terms of previous exposure to suicidal persons and extent of previous training. Post-training evaluation demonstrated significant improvements in stigmatising attitudes, knowledge and confidence in all three countries. Conclusion: The consistently positive effects of gatekeeper training of police officers across different regions support inclusion of this type of training as a fundamental part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes and roll-out, nationally and internationally.

Risk indicators associated with root caries in independently living older adults

Objective: To determine the risk indicators associated with root caries experience in a cohort of independently living older adults in Ireland. Methods: The data reported in the present study were obtained from a prospective longitudinal study conducted in a cohort of independently living older adults (n = 334). Each subject underwent an oral examination, performed by a single calibrated examiner, to determine the root caries index and other clinical variables. Questionnaires were used to collect data on oral hygiene habits, diet, smoking and alcohol habits and education level. A regression analysis with the outcome variable of root caries experience (no/yes) was conducted. Results: A total of 334 older dentate adults with a mean age of 69.1 years were examined. 53.3% had at least one filled or decayed root surface. The median root caries index was 3.13 (IQR 0.00, 13.92). The results from the multivariate regression analysis indicated that individuals with poor plaque control (OR 9.59, 95% CI 3.84–24.00), xerostomia (OR 18.49, 95% CI 2.00–172.80), two or more teeth with coronal decay (OR 4.50, 95% CI 2.02–10.02) and 37 or more exposed root surfaces (OR 5.48, 95% CI 2.49–12.01) were more likely to have been affected by root caries. Conclusions: The prevalence of root caries was high in this cohort. This study suggests a correlation between root caries and the variables poor plaque control, xerostomia, coronal decay (≥2 teeth affected) and exposed root surfaces (≥37). The significance of these risk indicators and the resulting prediction model should be further evaluated in a prospective study of root caries incidence. Clinical significance Identification of risk indicators for root caries in independently living older adults would facilitate dental practitioners to identify those who would benefit most from interventions aimed at prevention.