Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Mechanically stacked solar cells for concentrator photovoltaics

The power output of dual-junction mechanically stacked solar cells comprising different sub-cell materials in a terrestrial concentrating photovoltaic module has been evaluated. The ideal bandgap combination of both cells in a stack was found using EtaOpt. A combination of 1.4 eV and 0.7 eV has been found to produce the highest photovoltaic conversion efficiency under the AM1.5 Direct Solar Spectrum with x500 concentration. As EtaOpt does not consider the absorption profile of solar cell materials; the practical power output per unit area of a dual junction mechanically stacked solar cell has been modelled considering the optical absorption co-efficients and thicknesses of the individual solar cells. The model considered a GaAs top cell and a Ge, GaSb, Ga0.47In0.53As or Si bottom cell. It was found that GaSb gives the highest power contribution as a bottom cell in a dual junction configuration followed by Ge and GaInAs. While the additional power provided by a Si bottom cell is less than these it remains a suitable candidate for a bottom cell owing to its lower cost

Vibration based health monitoring of civil infrastructure using energy harvesting techniques

The use of structural health monitoring of civil structures is ever expanding and by assessing the dynamical condition of structures, informed maintenance management can be conducted at both individual and network levels. With the continued growth of information age technology, the potential arises for smart monitoring systems to be integrated with civil infrastructure to provide efficient information on the condition of a structure. The focus of this thesis is the integration of smart technology with civil infrastructure for the purposes of structural health monitoring. The technology considered in this regard are devices based on energy harvesting materials. While there has been considerable focus on the development and optimisation of such devices using steady state loading conditions, their applications for civil infrastructure are less known. Although research is still in initial stages, studies into the uses associated with such applications are very promising. Through the use of the dynamical response of structures to a variety of loading conditions, the energy harvesting outputs from such devices is established and the potential power output determined. Through a power variance output approach, damage detection of deteriorating structures using the energy harvesting devices is investigated. Further applications of the integration of energy harvesting devices with civil infrastructure investigated by this research includes the use of the power output as a indicator for control. Four approaches are undertaken to determine the potential applications arising from integrating smart technology with civil infrastructure, namely • Theoretical analysis to determine the applications of energy harvesting devices for vibration based health monitoring of civil infrastructure. • Laboratory experimentation to verify the performance of different energy harvesting configurations for civil infrastructure applications. • Scaled model testing as a method to experimentally validate the integration of the energy harvesting devices with civil infrastructure. • Full scale deployment of energy harvesting device with a bridge structure. These four approaches validate the application of energy harvesting technology with civil infrastructure from a theoretical, experimental and practical perspective.

Floating wave energy converters: wave measurement & analysis techniques

The wave energy industry is entering a new phase of pre-commercial and commercial deployments of full-scale devices, so better understanding of seaway variability is critical to the successful operation of devices. The response of Wave Energy Converters to incident waves govern their operational performance and for many devices, this is highly dependent on spectral shape due to their resonant properties. Various methods of wave measurement are presented, along with analysis techniques and empirical models. Resource assessments, device performance predictions and monitoring of operational devices will often be based on summary statistics and assume a standard spectral shape such as Pierson-Moskowitz or JONSWAP. Furthermore, these are typically derived from the closest available wave data, frequently separated from the site on scales in the order of 1km. Therefore, variability of seaways from standard spectral shapes and spatial inconsistency between the measurement point and the device site will cause inaccuracies in the performance assessment. This thesis categorises time and frequency domain analysis techniques that can be used to identify changes in a sea state from record to record. Device specific issues such as dimensional scaling of sea states and power output are discussed along with potential differences that arise in estimated and actual output power of a WEC due to spectral shape variation. This is investigated using measured data from various phases of device development.

An energy efficient power controller switching methodology for an ambient healthcare network

A methodology for improved power controller switching in mobile Body Area Networks operating within the ambient healthcare environment is proposed. The work extends Anti-windup and Bumpless transfer results to provide a solution to the ambulatory networking problem that ensures sufficient biometric data can always be regenerated at the base station. The solution thereby guarantees satisfactory quality of service for healthcare providers. Compensation is provided for the nonlinear hardware constraints that are a typical feature of the type of network under consideration and graceful performance degradation in the face of hardware output power saturation is demonstrated, thus conserving network energy in an optimal fashion.

Practical assessment of hardware limitations on power aware wireless sensor networks - An anti-windup approach

This work considers the effect of hardware constraints that typically arise in practical power-aware wireless sensor network systems. A rigorous methodology is presented that quantifies the effect of output power limit and quantization constraints on bit error rate performance. The approach uses a novel, intuitively appealing means of addressing the output power constraint, wherein the attendant saturation block is mapped from the output of the plant to its input and compensation is then achieved using a robust anti-windup scheme. A priori levels of system performance are attained using a quantitative feedback theory approach on the initial, linear stage of the design paradigm. This hybrid design is assessed experimentally using a fully compliant 802.15.4 testbed where mobility is introduced through the use of autonomous robots. A benchmark comparison between the new approach and a number of existing strategies is also presented.

Systematic delay-driven power optimisation and power-driven delay optimisation of combinational circuits

With the proliferation of mobile wireless communication and embedded systems, the energy efficiency becomes a major design constraint. The dissipated energy is often referred as the product of power dissipation and the input-output delay. Most of electronic design automation techniques focus on optimising only one of these parameters either power or delay. Industry standard design flows integrate systematic methods of optimising either area or timing while for power consumption optimisation one often employs heuristics which are characteristic to a specific design. In this work we answer three questions in our quest to provide a systematic approach to joint power and delay Optimisation. The first question of our research is: How to build a design flow which incorporates academic and industry standard design flows for power optimisation? To address this question, we use a reference design flow provided by Synopsys and integrate in this flow academic tools and methodologies. The proposed design flow is used as a platform for analysing some novel algorithms and methodologies for optimisation in the context of digital circuits. The second question we answer is: Is possible to apply a systematic approach for power optimisation in the context of combinational digital circuits? The starting point is a selection of a suitable data structure which can easily incorporate information about delay, power, area and which then allows optimisation algorithms to be applied. In particular we address the implications of a systematic power optimisation methodologies and the potential degradation of other (often conflicting) parameters such as area or the delay of implementation. Finally, the third question which this thesis attempts to answer is: Is there a systematic approach for multi-objective optimisation of delay and power? A delay-driven power and power-driven delay optimisation is proposed in order to have balanced delay and power values. This implies that each power optimisation step is not only constrained by the decrease in power but also the increase in delay. Similarly, each delay optimisation step is not only governed with the decrease in delay but also the increase in power. The goal is to obtain multi-objective optimisation of digital circuits where the two conflicting objectives are power and delay. The logic synthesis and optimisation methodology is based on AND-Inverter Graphs (AIGs) which represent the functionality of the circuit. The switching activities and arrival times of circuit nodes are annotated onto an AND-Inverter Graph under the zero and a non-zero-delay model. We introduce then several reordering rules which are applied on the AIG nodes to minimise switching power or longest path delay of the circuit at the pre-technology mapping level. The academic Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool ABC is used for the manipulation of AND-Inverter Graphs. We have implemented various combinatorial optimisation algorithms often used in Electronic Design Automation such as Simulated Annealing and Uniform Cost Search Algorithm. Simulated Annealing (SMA) is a probabilistic meta heuristic for the global optimization problem of locating a good approximation to the global optimum of a given function in a large search space. We used SMA to probabilistically decide between moving from one optimised solution to another such that the dynamic power is optimised under given delay constraints and the delay is optimised under given power constraints. A good approximation to the global optimum solution of energy constraint is obtained. Uniform Cost Search (UCS) is a tree search algorithm used for traversing or searching a weighted tree, tree structure, or graph. We have used Uniform Cost Search Algorithm to search within the AIG network, a specific AIG node order for the reordering rules application. After the reordering rules application, the AIG network is mapped to an AIG netlist using specific library cells. Our approach combines network re-structuring, AIG nodes reordering, dynamic power and longest path delay estimation and optimisation and finally technology mapping to an AIG netlist. A set of MCNC Benchmark circuits and large combinational circuits up to 100,000 gates have been used to validate our methodology. Comparisons for power and delay optimisation are made with the best synthesis scripts used in ABC. Reduction of 23% in power and 15% in delay with minimal overhead is achieved, compared to the best known ABC results. Also, our approach is also implemented on a number of processors with combinational and sequential components and significant savings are achieved.

Integrated magnetic components for high-power high-current dc-dc converters

This thesis is focused on the design and development of an integrated magnetic (IM) structure for use in high-power high-current power converters employed in renewable energy applications. These applications require low-cost, high efficiency and high-power density magnetic components and the use of IM structures can help achieve this goal. A novel CCTT-core split-winding integrated magnetic (CCTT IM) is presented in this thesis. This IM is optimized for use in high-power dc-dc converters. The CCTT IM design is an evolution of the traditional EE-core integrated magnetic (EE IM). The CCTT IM structure uses a split-winding configuration allowing for the reduction of external leakage inductance, which is a problem for many traditional IM designs, such as the EE IM. Magnetic poles are incorporated to help shape and contain the leakage flux within the core window. These magnetic poles have the added benefit of minimizing the winding power loss due to the airgap fringing flux as they shape the fringing flux away from the split-windings. A CCTT IM reluctance model is developed which uses fringing equations to accurately predict the most probable regions of fringing flux around the pole and winding sections of the device. This helps in the development of a more accurate model as it predicts the dc and ac inductance of the component. A CCTT IM design algorithm is developed which relies heavily on the reluctance model of the CCTT IM. The design algorithm is implemented using the mathematical software tool Mathematica. This algorithm is modular in structure and allows for the quick and easy design and prototyping of the CCTT IM. The algorithm allows for the investigation of the CCTT IM boxed volume with the variation of input current ripple, for different power ranges, magnetic materials and frequencies. A high-power 72 kW CCTT IM prototype is designed and developed for use in an automotive fuelcell-based drivetrain. The CCTT IM design algorithm is initially used to design the component while 3D and 2D finite element analysis (FEA) software is used to optimize the design. Low-cost and low-power loss ferrite 3C92 is used for its construction, and when combined with a low number of turns results in a very efficient design. A paper analysis is undertaken which compares the performance of the high-power CCTT IM design with that of two discrete inductors used in a two-phase (2L) interleaved converter. The 2L option consists of two discrete inductors constructed from high dc-bias material. Both topologies are designed for the same worst-case phase current ripple conditions and this ensures a like-for-like comparison. The comparison indicates that the total magnetic component boxed volume of both converters is similar while the CCTT IM has significantly lower power loss. Experimental results for the 72 kW, (155 V dc, 465 A dc input, 420 V dc output) prototype validate the CCTT IM concept where the component is shown to be 99.7 % efficient. The high-power experimental testing was conducted at General Motors advanced technology center in Torrence, Los Angeles. Calorific testing was used to determine the power loss in the CCTT IM component. Experimental 3.8 kW results and a 3.8 kW prototype compare and contrast the ferrite CCTT IM and high dc-bias 2L concepts over the typical operating range of a fuelcell under like-for-like conditions. The CCTT IM is shown to perform better than the 2L option over the entire power range. An 8 kW ferrite CCTT IM prototype is developed for use in photovoltaic (PV) applications. The CCTT IM is used in a boost pre-regulator as part of the PV power stage. The CCTT IM is compared with an industry standard 2L converter consisting of two discrete ferrite toroidal inductors. The magnetic components are compared for the same worst-case phase current ripple and the experimental testing is conducted over the operation of a PV panel. The prototype CCTT IM allows for a 50 % reduction in total boxed volume and mass in comparison to the baseline 2L option, while showing increased efficiency.

Resonant power conversion topologies for inductive charging of electrical vehicle batteries

This thesis is concerned with inductive charging of electric vehicle batteries. Rectified power form the 50/60 Hz utility feeds a dc-ac converter which delivers high-frequency ac power to the electric vehicle inductive coupling inlet. The inlet configuration has been defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers in Recommended Practice J-1773. This thesis studies converter topologies related to the series resonant converter. When coupled to the vehicle inlet, the frequency-controlled series-resonant converter results in a capacitively-filtered series-parallel LCLC (SP-LCLC) resonant converter topology with zero voltage switching and many other desirable features. A novel time-domain transformation analysis, termed Modal Analysis, is developed, using a state variable transformation, to analyze and characterize this multi-resonant fourth-orderconverter. Next, Fundamental Mode Approximation (FMA) Analysis, based on a voltage-source model of the load, and its novel extension, Rectifier-Compensated FMA (RCFMA) Analysis, are developed and applied to the SP-LCLC converter. The RCFMA Analysis is a simpler and more intuitive analysis than the Modal Analysis, and provides a relatively accurate closed-form solution for the converter behavior. Phase control of the SP-LCLC converter is investigated as a control option. FMA and RCFMA Analyses are used for detailed characterization. The analyses identify areas of operation, which are also validated experimentally, where it is advantageous to phase control the converter. A novel hybrid control scheme is proposed which integrates frequency and phase control and achieves reduced operating frequency range and improved partial-load efficiency. The phase-controlled SP-LCLC converter can also be configured with a parallel load and is an excellent option for the application. The resulting topology implements soft-switching over the entire load range and has high full-load and partial-load efficiencies. RCFMA Analysis is used to analyze and characterize the new converter topology, and good correlation is shown with experimental results. Finally, a novel single-stage power-factor-corrected ac-dc converter is introduced, which uses the current-source characteristic of the SP-LCLC topology to provide power factor correction over a wide output power range from zero to full load. This converter exhibits all the advantageous characteristics of its dc-dc counterpart, with a reduced parts count and cost. Simulation and experimental results verify the operation of the new converter.

A Delay Vector Variance based marker for an output-only assessment of structural changes in tension leg platforms

Although aspects of power generation of many offshore renewable devices are well understood, their dynamic responses under high wind and wave conditions are still to be investigated to a great detail. Output only statistical markers are important for these offshore devices, since access to the device is limited and information about the exposure conditions and the true behaviour of the devices are generally partial, limited, and vague or even absent. The markers can summarise and characterise the behaviour of these devices from their dynamic response available as time series data. The behaviour may be linear or nonlinear and consequently a marker that can track the changes in structural situations can be quite important. These markers can then be helpful in assessing the current condition of the structure and can indicate possible intervention, monitoring or assessment. This paper considers a Delay Vector Variance based marker for changes in a tension leg platform tested in an ocean wave basin for structural changes brought about by single column dampers. The approach is based on dynamic outputs of the device alone and is based on the estimation of the nonlinearity of the output signal. The advantages of the selected marker and its response with changing structural properties are discussed. The marker is observed to be important for monitoring the as- deployed structural condition and is sensitive to changes in such conditions. Influence of exposure conditions of wave loading is also discussed in this study based only on experimental data.