Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

Open-source virtual bronchoscopy for image guided navigation

This thesis describes the development of an open-source system for virtual bronchoscopy used in combination with electromagnetic instrument tracking. The end application is virtual navigation of the lung for biopsy of early stage cancer nodules. The open-source platform 3D Slicer was used for creating freely available algorithms for virtual bronchscopy. Firstly, the development of an open-source semi-automatic algorithm for prediction of solitary pulmonary nodule malignancy is presented. This approach may help the physician decide whether to proceed with biopsy of the nodule. The user-selected nodule is segmented in order to extract radiological characteristics (i.e., size, location, edge smoothness, calcification presence, cavity wall thickness) which are combined with patient information to calculate likelihood of malignancy. The overall accuracy of the algorithm is shown to be high compared to independent experts' assessment of malignancy. The algorithm is also compared with two different predictors, and our approach is shown to provide the best overall prediction accuracy. The development of an airway segmentation algorithm which extracts the airway tree from surrounding structures on chest Computed Tomography (CT) images is then described. This represents the first fundamental step toward the creation of a virtual bronchoscopy system. Clinical and ex-vivo images are used to evaluate performance of the algorithm. Different CT scan parameters are investigated and parameters for successful airway segmentation are optimized. Slice thickness is the most affecting parameter, while variation of reconstruction kernel and radiation dose is shown to be less critical. Airway segmentation is used to create a 3D rendered model of the airway tree for virtual navigation. Finally, the first open-source virtual bronchoscopy system was combined with electromagnetic tracking of the bronchoscope for the development of a GPS-like system for navigating within the lungs. Tools for pre-procedural planning and for helping with navigation are provided. Registration between the lungs of the patient and the virtually reconstructed airway tree is achieved using a landmark-based approach. In an attempt to reduce difficulties with registration errors, we also implemented a landmark-free registration method based on a balanced airway survey. In-vitro and in-vivo testing showed good accuracy for this registration approach. The centreline of the 3D airway model is extracted and used to compensate for possible registration errors. Tools are provided to select a target for biopsy on the patient CT image, and pathways from the trachea towards the selected targets are automatically created. The pathways guide the physician during navigation, while distance to target information is updated in real-time and presented to the user. During navigation, video from the bronchoscope is streamed and presented to the physician next to the 3D rendered image. The electromagnetic tracking is implemented with 5 DOF sensing that does not provide roll rotation information. An intensity-based image registration approach is implemented to rotate the virtual image according to the bronchoscope's rotations. The virtual bronchoscopy system is shown to be easy to use and accurate in replicating the clinical setting, as demonstrated in the pre-clinical environment of a breathing lung method. Animal studies were performed to evaluate the overall system performance.

Enabling effective operational decision making on a Combined Heat and Power System using the 5C architecture

The use of Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to optimise industrial energy systems is an approach which has the potential to positively impact on manufacturing sector energy efficiency. The need to obtain data to facilitate the implementation of a CPS in an industrial energy system is however a complex task which is often implemented in a non-standardised way. The use of the 5C CPS architecture has the potential to standardise this approach. This paper describes a case study where data from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system located in a large manufacturing company was fused with grid electricity and gas models as well as a maintenance cost model using the 5C architecture with a view to making effective decisions on its cost efficient operation. A control change implemented based on the cognitive analysis enabled via the 5C architecture implementation has resulted in energy cost savings of over €7400 over a four-month period, with energy cost savings of over €150,000 projected once the 5C architecture is extended into the production environment.

Linearity analysis and comparison study on the epoc® point-of-care blood analysis system in cardiopulmonary bypass patients

The epoc® blood analysis system (Epocal Inc., Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) is a newly developed in vitro diagnostic hand-held analyzer for testing whole blood samples at point-of-care, which provides blood gas, electrolytes, ionized calcium, glucose, lactate, and hematocrit/calculated hemoglobin rapidly. The analytical performance of the epoc® system was evaluated in a tertiary hospital, see related research article “Analytical evaluation of the epoc® point-of-care blood analysis system in cardiopulmonary bypass patients” [1]. Data presented are the linearity analysis for 9 parameters and the comparison study in 40 cardiopulmonary bypass patients on 3 epoc® meters, Instrumentation Laboratory GEM4000, Abbott iSTAT, Nova CCX, and Roche Accu-Chek Inform II and Performa glucose meters.