Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Structural and agentic analysis of supply-chains: a social network analysis approach

This research adds to a body of work exploring the role of Social Network Analysis (SNA) in the study of both relational and structural characteristics of supply chain networks. Two contrasting network cases (food enterprises and digital-based enterprises) are chosen in order to elicit structural differences in business networks subject to divergences in local embeddedness and the relative materiality of the goods and services produced. Our analysis and findings draw out differences in network structure as evidenced by metrics of network centralization and cohesion, the presence of components and other sub-groupings, and the position of central actors. We relate these structural features both to the nature of the networks and to the (qualitative) experiences of the actors themselves. We find, in particular, the role of customers as co-creators of knowledge (for the Food network), the central role of infrastructure and services (for the Digital network), the importance of ICT as a source of codified knowledge inputs, along with the continuing importance of geographical proximity for the development and transfer of tacit knowledge and for incremental learning.