Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Cost savings from relaxation of operational constraints on a power system with high wind penetration

Wind energy is predominantly a nonsynchronous generation source. Large-scale integration of wind generation with existing electricity systems, therefore, presents challenges in maintaining system frequency stability and local voltage stability. Transmission system operators have implemented system operational constraints (SOCs) in order to maintain stability with high wind generation, but imposition of these constraints results in higher operating costs. A mixed integer programming tool was used to simulate generator dispatch in order to assess the impact of various SOCs on generation costs. Interleaved day-ahead scheduling and real-time dispatch models were developed to allow accurate representation of forced outages and wind forecast errors, and were applied to the proposed Irish power system of 2020 with a wind penetration of 32%. Savings of at least 7.8% in generation costs and reductions in wind curtailment of 50% were identified when the most influential SOCs were relaxed. The results also illustrate the need to relax local SOCs together with the system-wide nonsynchronous penetration limit SOC, as savings from increasing the nonsynchronous limit beyond 70% were restricted without relaxation of local SOCs. The methodology and results allow for quantification of the costs of SOCs, allowing the optimal upgrade path for generation and transmission infrastructure to be determined.

An empirical examination of risk equalisation in a regulated community rated health insurance market

Despite universal access entitlements to the public healthcare system in Ireland, over half the population is covered by voluntary private health insurance. The market operates on the basis of community rating, open enrolment and lifetime cover. A set of minimum benefits also exists, and two risk equalisation schemes have been put in place but neither was implemented. These schemes have proved highly controversial. To date, the debate has primarily consisted of qualitative arguments. This study adds a quantitative element by analysing a number of pertinent issues. A model of a community rated insurance market is developed, which shows that community rating can only be maintained in a competitive market if all insurers in the market have the same risk profile as the market overall. This has relevance to the Irish market in the aftermath of a Supreme Court decision to set aside risk equalisation. Two reasons why insurers’ risk profiles might differ are adverse selection and risk selection. Evidence is found of the existence of both forms of selection in the Irish market. A move from single rate community rating to lifetime community rating in Australia had significant consequences for take-up rates and the age profile of the insured population. A similar move has been proposed in Ireland. It is found that, although this might improve the stability of community rating in the short term, it would not negate the need for risk equalisation. If community rating were to collapse then risk rating might result. A comparison of the Irish, Australian and UK health insurance markets suggests that community rating encourages higher take-up among older consumers than risk rating. Analysis of Irish hospital discharge figures suggests that this yields significant savings for the Irish public healthcare system. This thesis has implications for government policy towards private health insurance in Ireland.

Systematic delay-driven power optimisation and power-driven delay optimisation of combinational circuits

With the proliferation of mobile wireless communication and embedded systems, the energy efficiency becomes a major design constraint. The dissipated energy is often referred as the product of power dissipation and the input-output delay. Most of electronic design automation techniques focus on optimising only one of these parameters either power or delay. Industry standard design flows integrate systematic methods of optimising either area or timing while for power consumption optimisation one often employs heuristics which are characteristic to a specific design. In this work we answer three questions in our quest to provide a systematic approach to joint power and delay Optimisation. The first question of our research is: How to build a design flow which incorporates academic and industry standard design flows for power optimisation? To address this question, we use a reference design flow provided by Synopsys and integrate in this flow academic tools and methodologies. The proposed design flow is used as a platform for analysing some novel algorithms and methodologies for optimisation in the context of digital circuits. The second question we answer is: Is possible to apply a systematic approach for power optimisation in the context of combinational digital circuits? The starting point is a selection of a suitable data structure which can easily incorporate information about delay, power, area and which then allows optimisation algorithms to be applied. In particular we address the implications of a systematic power optimisation methodologies and the potential degradation of other (often conflicting) parameters such as area or the delay of implementation. Finally, the third question which this thesis attempts to answer is: Is there a systematic approach for multi-objective optimisation of delay and power? A delay-driven power and power-driven delay optimisation is proposed in order to have balanced delay and power values. This implies that each power optimisation step is not only constrained by the decrease in power but also the increase in delay. Similarly, each delay optimisation step is not only governed with the decrease in delay but also the increase in power. The goal is to obtain multi-objective optimisation of digital circuits where the two conflicting objectives are power and delay. The logic synthesis and optimisation methodology is based on AND-Inverter Graphs (AIGs) which represent the functionality of the circuit. The switching activities and arrival times of circuit nodes are annotated onto an AND-Inverter Graph under the zero and a non-zero-delay model. We introduce then several reordering rules which are applied on the AIG nodes to minimise switching power or longest path delay of the circuit at the pre-technology mapping level. The academic Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool ABC is used for the manipulation of AND-Inverter Graphs. We have implemented various combinatorial optimisation algorithms often used in Electronic Design Automation such as Simulated Annealing and Uniform Cost Search Algorithm. Simulated Annealing (SMA) is a probabilistic meta heuristic for the global optimization problem of locating a good approximation to the global optimum of a given function in a large search space. We used SMA to probabilistically decide between moving from one optimised solution to another such that the dynamic power is optimised under given delay constraints and the delay is optimised under given power constraints. A good approximation to the global optimum solution of energy constraint is obtained. Uniform Cost Search (UCS) is a tree search algorithm used for traversing or searching a weighted tree, tree structure, or graph. We have used Uniform Cost Search Algorithm to search within the AIG network, a specific AIG node order for the reordering rules application. After the reordering rules application, the AIG network is mapped to an AIG netlist using specific library cells. Our approach combines network re-structuring, AIG nodes reordering, dynamic power and longest path delay estimation and optimisation and finally technology mapping to an AIG netlist. A set of MCNC Benchmark circuits and large combinational circuits up to 100,000 gates have been used to validate our methodology. Comparisons for power and delay optimisation are made with the best synthesis scripts used in ABC. Reduction of 23% in power and 15% in delay with minimal overhead is achieved, compared to the best known ABC results. Also, our approach is also implemented on a number of processors with combinational and sequential components and significant savings are achieved.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The use of fault detection and diagnostics to reduce air handling unit energy consumption

The contribution of buildings towards total worldwide energy consumption in developed countries is between 20% and 40%. Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and more specifically Air Handling Units (AHUs) energy consumption accounts on average for 40% of a typical medical device manufacturing or pharmaceutical facility’s energy consumption. Studies have indicated that 20 – 30% energy savings are achievable by recommissioning HVAC systems, and more specifically AHU operations, to rectify faulty operation. Automated Fault Detection and Diagnosis (AFDD) is a process concerned with potentially partially or fully automating the commissioning process through the detection of faults. An expert system is a knowledge-based system, which employs Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods to replicate the knowledge of a human subject matter expert, in a particular field, such as engineering, medicine, finance and marketing, to name a few. This thesis details the research and development work undertaken in the development and testing of a new AFDD expert system for AHUs which can be installed in minimal set up time on a large cross section of AHU types in a building management system vendor neutral manner. Both simulated and extensive field testing was undertaken against a widely available and industry known expert set of rules known as the Air Handling Unit Performance Assessment Rules (APAR) (and a later more developed version known as APAR_extended) in order to prove its effectiveness. Specifically, in tests against a dataset of 52 simulated faults, this new AFDD expert system identified all 52 derived issues whereas the APAR ruleset identified just 10. In tests using actual field data from 5 operating AHUs in 4 manufacturing facilities, the newly developed AFDD expert system for AHUs was shown to identify four individual fault case categories that the APAR method did not, as well as showing improvements made in the area of fault diagnosis.

Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Theory of the electronic and optical properties of dilute bismide alloys

Dilute bismide alloys, containing small fractions of bismuth (Bi), have recently attracted interest due to their potential for applications in a range of semiconductor devices. Experiments have revealed that dilute bismide alloys such as GaBixAs1−x, in which a small fraction x of the atoms in the III-V semiconductor GaAs are replaced by Bi, exhibit a number of unusual and unique properties. For example, the band gap energy (E g) decreases rapidly with increasing Bi composition x, by up to 90 meV per % Bi replacing As in the alloy. This band gap reduction is accompanied by a strong increase in the spin-orbit-splitting energy (ΔSO) with increasing x, and both E g and ΔSO are characterised by strong, composition-dependent bowing. The existence of a ΔSO > E g regime in the GaBixAs1−x alloy has been demonstrated for x ≳10%, a band structure condition which is promising for the development of highly efficient, temperature stable semiconductor lasers that could lead to large energy savings in future optical communication networks. In addition to their potential for specific applications, dilute bismide alloys have also attracted interest from a fundamental perspective due to their unique properties. In this thesis we develop the theory of the electronic and optical properties of dilute bismide alloys. By adopting a multi-scale approach encompassing atomistic calculations of the electronic structure using the semi-empirical tight-binding method, as well as continuum calculations based on the k•p method, we develop a fundamental understanding of this unusual class of semiconductor alloys and identify general material properties which are promising for applications in semiconductor optoelectronic and photovoltaic devices. By performing detailed supercell calculations on both ordered and disordered alloys we explicitly demonstrate that Bi atoms act as isovalent impurities when incorporated in dilute quantities in III-V (In)GaAs(P) materials, strongly perturbing the electronic structure of the valence band. We identify and quantify the causes and consequences of the unusual electronic properties of GaBixAs1−x and related alloys, and our analysis is reinforced throughout by a series of detailed comparisons to the results of experimental measurements. Our k•p models of the band structure of GaBixAs1−x and related alloys, which we derive directly from detailed atomistic calculations, are ideally suited to the study of dilute bismide-based devices. We focus in the latter part of the thesis on calculations of the electronic and optical properties of dilute bismide quantum well lasers. In addition to developing an understanding of the effects of Bi incorporation on the operational characteristics of semiconductor lasers, we also present calculations which have been used explicitly in designing and optimising the first generation of GaBixAs1−x-based devices.

SDC: Scalable description coding for adaptive streaming media

Video compression techniques enable adaptive media streaming over heterogeneous links to end-devices. Scalable Video Coding (SVC) and Multiple Description Coding (MDC) represent well-known techniques for video compression with distinct characteristics in terms of bandwidth efficiency and resiliency to packet loss. In this paper, we present Scalable Description Coding (SDC), a technique to compromise the tradeoff between bandwidth efficiency and error resiliency without sacrificing user-perceived quality. Additionally, we propose a scheme that combines network coding and SDC to further improve the error resiliency. SDC yields upwards of 25% bandwidth savings over MDC. Additionally, our scheme features higher quality for longer durations even at high packet loss rates.