Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Biomethane production from food waste and organic residues

Anaerobic digestion (AD) of biodegradable waste is an environmentally and economically sustainable solution which incorporates waste treatment and energy recovery. The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), which comprises mostly of food waste, is highly degradable under anaerobic conditions. Biogas produced from OFMSW, when upgraded to biomethane, is recognised as one of the most sustainable renewable biofuels and can also be one of the cheapest sources of biomethane if a gate fee is associated with the substrate. OFMSW is a complex and heterogeneous material which may have widely different characteristics depending on the source of origin and collection system used. The research presented in this thesis investigates the potential energy resource from a wide range of organic waste streams through field and laboratory research on real world samples. OFMSW samples collected from a range of sources generated methane yields ranging from 75 to 160 m3 per tonne. Higher methane yields are associated with source segregated food waste from commercial catering premises as opposed to domestic sources. The inclusion of garden waste reduces the specific methane yield from household organic waste. In continuous AD trials it was found that a conventional continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) gave the highest specific methane yields at a moderate organic loading rate of 2 kg volatile solids (VS) m-3 digester day-1 and a hydraulic retention time of 30 days. The average specific methane yield obtained at this loading rate in continuous digestion was 560 ± 29 L CH4 kg-1 VS which exceeded the biomethane potential test result by 5%. The low carbon to nitrogen ratio (C: N <14:1) associated with canteen food waste lead to increasing concentrations of volatile fatty acids in line with high concentrations of ammonia nitrogen at higher organic loading rates. At an organic loading rate of 4 kg VS m-3day-1 the specific methane yield dropped considerably (381 L CH4 kg-1 VS), the pH rose to 8.1 and free ammonia (NH3 ) concentrations reached toxicity levels towards the end of the trial (ca. 950 mg L-1). A novel two phase AD reactor configuration consisting of a series of sequentially fed leach bed reactors connected to an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) demonstrated a high rate of organic matter decay but resulted in lower specific methane yields (384 L CH4 kg-1 VS) than the conventional CSTR system.

Capillary electrophoresis with boron doped diamond electrode for amperometric detection of low molecular weight biological substrate

The research work in this thesis included the sensitive and selective separation of biological substance by capillary electrophoresis with a boron doped diamond electrode for amperometric detection. Chapter 1 introduced the capillary electrophoresis and electrochemical detection. It included the different modes of capillary electrophoresis, polyelectrolyte multilayers coating for open tubular capillary electrochromatography, different modes of electrochemical detection and carbon based electrodes. Chapter 2 showed the synthesized and electropolymerized N-acetyltyramine with a negatively charged sulfobutylether-β-cyclodextrin on a boron doped diamond (BDD) electrode followed by the electropolymerzation of pyrrole to form a stable and permselective film for selective dopamine detection. For comparison, a glassy carbon (GC) electrode with a combined electropolymerized permselective film of polytyramine and polypyrrole-1-propionic acid was used for selective detection of dopamine. The detection limit of dopamine was improved from 100 nM at a GC electrode to 5 nM at a BDD electrode. Chapter 3 showed field-amplified sample stacking using a fused silica capillary coated with gold nanoparticles embedded in poly(diallyldimethylammonium) chloride, which has been investigated for the electrophoretic separation of indoxyl sulphate, homovanillic acid and vanillylmandelic acid. The detection limit of the three analytes obtained by using a boron doped diamond electrode was around 75 nM, which was significantly below their normal physiological levels in biological fluids. This combined separation and detection scheme was applied to the direct analysis of these analytes and other interfereing chemicals including uric and ascorbic acids in urine samples without off-line sample treatment or preconcentration. Chapter 4 showed the selective detection of Pseudomonas Quinolone Signal, PQS for quorum sensing from its precursor HHQ, using a simply boron doped diamond electrode. Furthermore, by combining poly(diallyldimethylammonium) chloride modified fused silica capillary with a BDD electrode for amperometric detection, PQS was separated from HHQ and other analogues. The detection limit of PQS was as low as 65 nM. Different P. aeruginosa mutant strains were studied. Chapter 5 showed the separation of aminothiols by layer-by-layer coating of silica capillary with a boron doped diamond electrode. The capillary was layer-by-layer coated with the polycation poly(diallyldimethylammonium) chloride and negatively charged silica nanoparticles. All the aminothiols was separated and detected using a BDD electrode in an acidic electrolyte. It was a novel scheme for the separation and detection of glutathione reduced and oxidized forms, which is important for estimated overstressed level in the human system.

Development of low-cost sensing and separation devices based on macro, micro and nano technology for health applications

The work presented in this thesis described the development of low-cost sensing and separation devices with electrochemical detections for health applications. This research employs macro, micro and nano technology. The first sensing device developed was a tonerbased micro-device. The initial development of microfluidic devices was based on glass or quartz devices that are often expensive to fabricate; however, the introduction of new types of materials, such as plastics, offered a new way for fast prototyping and the development of disposable devices. One such microfluidic device is based on the lamination of laser-printed polyester films using a computer, printer and laminator. The resulting toner-based microchips demonstrated a potential viability for chemical assays, coupled with several detection methods, particularly Chip-Electrophoresis-Chemiluminescence (CE-CL) detection which has never been reported in the literature. Following on from the toner-based microchip, a three-electrode micro-configuration was developed on acetate substrate. This is the first time that a micro-electrode configuration made from gold; silver and platinum have been fabricated onto acetate by means of patterning and deposition techniques using the central fabrication facilities in Tyndall National Institute. These electrodes have been designed to facilitate the integration of a 3- electrode configuration as part of the fabrication process. Since the electrodes are on acetate the dicing step can automatically be eliminated. The stability of these sensors has been investigated using electrochemical techniques with excellent outcomes. Following on from the generalised testing of the electrodes these sensors were then coupled with capillary electrophoresis. The final sensing devices were on a macro scale and involved the modifications of screenprinted electrodes. Screen-printed electrodes (SPE) are generally seen to be far less sensitive than the more expensive electrodes including the gold, boron-doped diamond and glassy carbon electrodes. To enhance the sensitivity of these electrodes they were treated with metal nano-particles, gold and palladium. Following on from this, another modification was introduced. The carbonaceous material carbon monolith was drop-cast onto the SPE and then the metal nano-particles were electrodeposited onto the monolith material