Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Genetic analysis of bacteriophages from clinical and environmental samples

Bacteriophages, viruses infecting bacteria, are uniformly present in any location where there are high numbers of bacteria, both in the external environment and the human body. Knowledge of their diversity is limited by the difficulty to culture the host species and by the lack of the universal marker gene present in all viruses. Metagenomics is a powerful tool that can be used to analyse viral communities in their natural environments. The aim of this study was to investigate diverse populations of uncultured viruses from clinical (a sputum of patient with cystic fibrosis, CF) and environmental samples (a sludge from a dairy food wastewater treatment plant) containing rich bacterial populations using genetic and metagenomic analyses. Metagenomic sequencing of viruses obtained from these samples revealed that the majority of the metagenomic reads (97-99%) were novel when compared to the NCBI protein database using BLAST. A large proportion of assembled contigs were assignable as novel phages or uncharacterised prophages, the next largest assignable group being single-stranded eukaryotic virus genomes. Sputum from a cystic fibrosis patient contained DNA typical of phages of bacteria that are traditionally involved in CF lung infections and other bacteria that are part of the normal oral flora. The only eukaryotic virus detected in the CF sputum was Torque Teno virus (TTV). A substantial number of assigned sequences from dairy wastewater could be affiliated with phages of bacteria that are typically found in the soil and aquatic environments, including wastewater. Eukaryotic viral sequences were dominated by plant pathogens from the Geminiviridae and Nanoviridae families, and animal pathogens from the Circoviridae family. Antibiotic resistance genes were detected in both metagenomes suggesting phages could be a source for transmissible antimicrobial resistance. Overall, diversity of viruses in the CF sputum was low, with 89 distinct viral genotypes predicted, and higher (409 genotypes) in the wastewater. Function-based screening of a metagenomic library constructed from DNA extracted from dairy food wastewater viruses revealed candidate promoter sequences that have ability to drive expression of GFP in a promoter-trap vector in Escherichia coli. The majority of the cloned DNA sequences selected by the assay were related to ssDNA circular eukaryotic viruses and phages which formed a minority of the metagenome assembly, and many lacked any significant homology to known database sequences. Natural diversity of bacteriophages in wastewater samples was also examined by PCR amplification of the major capsid protein sequences, conserved within T4-type bacteriophages from Myoviridae family. Phylogenetic analysis of capsid sequences revealed that dairy wastewater contained mainly diverse and uncharacterized phages, while some showed a high level of similarity with phages from geographically distant environments.

Forces of agglomeration and dispersal in rural business networks: a social network analysis

Two concepts in rural economic development policy have been the focus of much research and policy action: the identification and support of clusters or networks of firms and the availability and adoption by rural businesses of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). From a theoretical viewpoint these policies are based on two contrasting models, with clustering seen as a process of economic agglomeration, and ICT-mediated communication as a means of facilitating economic dispersion. The study’s conceptual framework is based on four interrelated elements: location, interaction, knowledge, and advantage, together with the concept of networks which is employed as an operationally and theoretically unifying concept. The research questions are developed in four successive categories: Policy, Theory, Networks, and Method. The questions are approached using a study of two contrasting groups of rural small businesses in West Cork, Ireland: (a) Speciality Foods, and (b) firms in Digital Products and Services. The study combines Social Network Analysis (SNA) with Qualitative Thematic Analysis, using data collected from semi-structured interviews with 58 owners or managers of these businesses. Data comprise relational network data on the firms’ connections to suppliers, customers, allies and competitors, together with linked qualitative data on how the firms established connections, and how tacit and codified knowledge was sourced and utilised. The research finds that the key characteristics identified in the cluster literature are evident in the sample of Speciality Food businesses, in relation to flows of tacit knowledge, social embedding, and the development of forms of social capital. In particular the research identified the presence of two distinct forms of collective social capital in this network, termed “community” and “reputation”. By contrast the sample of Digital Products and Services businesses does not have the form of a cluster, but matches more closely to dispersive models, or “chain” structures. Much of the economic and social structure of this set of firms is best explained in terms of “project organisation”, and by the operation of an individual rather than collective form of “reputation”. The rural setting in which these firms are located has resulted in their being service-centric, and consequently they rely on ICT-mediated communication in order to exchange tacit knowledge “at a distance”. It is this factor, rather than inputs of codified knowledge, that most strongly influences their operation and their need for availability and adoption of high quality communication technologies. Thus the findings have applicability in relation to theory in Economic Geography and to policy and practice in Rural Development. In addition the research contributes to methodological questions in SNA, and to methodological questions about the combination or mixing of quantitative and qualitative methods.

A service-oriented user interaction analysis framework supporting adaptive applications

A comprehensive user model, built by monitoring a user's current use of applications, can be an excellent starting point for building adaptive user-centred applications. The BaranC framework monitors all user interaction with a digital device (e.g. smartphone), and also collects all available context data (such as from sensors in the digital device itself, in a smart watch, or in smart appliances) in order to build a full model of user application behaviour. The model built from the collected data, called the UDI (User Digital Imprint), is further augmented by analysis services, for example, a service to produce activity profiles from smartphone sensor data. The enhanced UDI model can then be the basis for building an appropriate adaptive application that is user-centred as it is based on an individual user model. As BaranC supports continuous user monitoring, an application can be dynamically adaptive in real-time to the current context (e.g. time, location or activity). Furthermore, since BaranC is continuously augmenting the user model with more monitored data, over time the user model changes, and the adaptive application can adapt gradually over time to changing user behaviour patterns. BaranC has been implemented as a service-oriented framework where the collection of data for the UDI and all sharing of the UDI data are kept strictly under the user's control. In addition, being service-oriented allows (with the user's permission) its monitoring and analysis services to be easily used by 3rd parties in order to provide 3rd party adaptive assistant services. An example 3rd party service demonstrator, built on top of BaranC, proactively assists a user by dynamic predication, based on the current context, what apps and contacts the user is likely to need. BaranC introduces an innovative user-controlled unified service model of monitoring and use of personal digital activity data in order to provide adaptive user-centred applications. This aims to improve on the current situation where the diversity of adaptive applications results in a proliferation of applications monitoring and using personal data, resulting in a lack of clarity, a dispersal of data, and a diminution of user control.

Analysis of the failure of cracked biscuits

Cracks or checks in biscuits weaken the material and cause the product to break at low load levels that are perceived as injurious to product quality. In this work, the structural response of circular digestive biscuits, with diameter 72 mm and thickness 7.2 mm, simply supported around the circumference and loaded by a central concentrated force was investigated by experiment and theory. Tests were conducted to quantify the distribution in breakage strength for structurally sound biscuits, biscuits with natural checks and biscuits with a single known part-through crack. For sound biscuits the breakage force is Normally distributed with a mean of 12.5 N and standard deviation of 1.2 N. For biscuits with checks, the corresponding statistics are 9.6 N ± 2.62 N respectively. The presence of a crack weakens the biscuit and strength, as measured by breakage force falls almost linearly with crack length and crack depth. The orientation of the crack, whether radial or tangential, and its location (i.e. position of the crack mid-point on the biscuit surface) are also important. Deep, radial, cracks located close to the biscuit centre can reduce the strength by up to 50%. Two separate failure criteria were examined for sound and cracked biscuits respectively. The results from these tests were in good accord with theory. For a biscuit without defects, breakage occurred when maximum biscuit stress reached or exceeded the failure stress of 420 kPa. For a biscuit with cracks, breakage occurred as above or alternatively when its critical stress intensity factor of 18 kPam0.5 was reached.