Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Irish neo-paganism: worldview, ritual and identity

Neo-paganism is a vibrant, dynamic global movement, which has had a significant cultural impact. Neo-paganism is an umbrella term for a wide range of spiritual practices, often described as nature- or earth-based spirituality. There are different “paths” or spiritual traditions within this movement, of which Druidry, Wicca and other forms of Pagan Witchcraft are included in this research. The present work is an ethnographic study of the worldview and ritual practices of the Irish neo-pagan community. It is an enquiry into (a) what characterises the neo-pagan worldview and (b) how this worldview is expressed through ritual behaviour. In order to collect data, the methodology of participant observation and ethnographic interviewing was employed. The thesis comprises a collection of “insider” accounts of what it is like to be a neo-pagan in Ireland and analysis of these narratives, which gives insight into different aspects of neopagan culture. In the discussion, the use of mythology is examined in regard to how mythic narrative is connected to identity formation. Irish cultural symbols are observed as resources utilised in the construction of the movement’s overall character. The interconnectedness of the natural landscape, the numinous and mythology gives rise to creative expression through various forms of neo-pagan artworks, which are discussed herein. The identifying features and key issues of Irish neo-pagan culture are addressed. These key issues are expressed as prominent themes and symbols of their discourse. Neo-pagan dialogue often features discussion of the relationship that this cultural group has with the Irish landscape, history, and indigenous and popular Irish religion. Some of the specific aspects of neo-pagan culture examined are magical worldview, the notion of holism, different types of ritual practices (festivals, life cycle rituals, healing), and material culture. The thesis presents an in-depth analysis of neopagan cultural expressions and their significance as cultural processes

Non-product related environmental process and production methods (NPR-PPMs): a view from international trade law and international environmental governance

The primary aim of this thesis is to analyse legal and governance issues in the use of Environmental NPR-PPMs, particularly those aiming to promote sustainable practices or to protect natural resources. NPR-PPMs have traditionally been thought of as being incompatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, the issue remains untouched by WTO adjudicatory bodies. One can suggest that WTO adjudicatory bodies may want to leave this issue to the Members, but the analysis of the case law also seems to indicate that the question of legality of NPR-PPMs has not been brought ‘as such’ in dispute settlement. This thesis advances the argument that despite the fact that the legal status of NPR-PPMs remains unsettled, during the last decades adjudicatory bodies have been scrutinising environmental measures based on NPR-PPMs just as another expression of the regulatory autonomy of the Members. Though NPR-PPMs are regulatory choices associated with a wide range of environmental concerns, trade disputes giving rise to questions related to the legality of process-based measures have been mainly associated with the protection of marine wildlife (i.e., fishing techniques threatening or affecting animal species). This thesis argues that environmental objectives articulated as NPR-PPMs can indeed qualify as legitimate objectives both under the GATT and the TBT Agreement. However, an important challenge for the their compatibility with WTO law relate to aspects associated with arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination. In the assessment of discrimination procedural issues play an important role. This thesis also elucidates other important dimensions to the issue from the perspective of global governance. One of the arguments advanced in this thesis is that a comprehensive analysis of environmental NPR-PPMs should consider not only their role in what is regarded as trade barriers (governmental and market-driven), but also their significance in global objectives such as the transition towards a green economy and sustainable patterns of consumption and production.

Prostate cancer treatment as an embodied rite of passage: impotence and incontinence as challenges to status reversal and reintegration

Introduction and Rationale: A central argument in the thesis is that performative acts of control, sexual potency and spontaneity are central to the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities. The acts of control, and particularly issues of spontaneity, are central to understandings and addressing the difficulties men face at varying levels of embodied identity. Using Watson’s (2000) ‘Male body schema’, I will explore the challenges and opportunities men face when negotiating normative, pragmatic, and experiential embodiment. I will later then explore the importance of these levels of embodiment to achieving visceral embodiment; or what I would define as a renewed unconscious satisfaction and ability to achieve and maintain normative, pragmatic and experiential forms of embodiment. Purpose and Objectives: Using the concept of liminality, and permanent liminality, the thesis explores how we can interpret and understand men’s experience of prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, and their struggle to regain power and control in the context of diagnosis, and also the side effects to treatment. The strategies men adopt in seeking out personalised medical programmes of treatment with their doctors are explored in detail. The power and control that can be exercised over medical professionals and treatment options is demonstrated. Method: Collecting responses online from prostate specific discussion boards via gatekeepers, and from interviews on the ‘health talk’ online database, three intersecting conceptual categories - liminality, masculinity and the body/embodiment - are combined in this research. Liminality and ‘time’ are directly linked to notions of ‘success’ and ‘outcome’ during the treatment process, and mark distinct points at which men, and their families, expect measures or limits to have been reached. Exploring liminality within the context of Turner’s ‘rites of passage’, I explore the difficulty men face in concluding the third stage of the rites; reintegration. Results: Prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, impotence and incontinence, in particular, have profound implications for the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities, and thus identity in general, making the construction of hegemonic ideals in the context of a highly ‘performative’ society highly troublesome. The issue of ‘spontaneity’ in the construction of various forms of embodied identities is of particular concern for men who contributed to this study.