Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Explorations in a meaning making system: Kerry as an entrepreneurial platform and the equine sector as a cluster

This Portfolio is about the changes that can be supported and achieved through transformational education that impacts on personal, professional and organisational levels. Having lived through an era of tremendous change over the second half of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first the author has a great drawing board to contemplate in the context of professional career experience as an engineer. The ability to engage in ‘subject-object’ separation is the means by which Kegan (1994, 2009) explains that transformation takes place and the Essays in this Portfolio aim to support and bring about such change. Exploration of aspects of ‘Kerry’ is the material selected to both challenge support change in the way of knowing from being subject to certain information and knowledge that to being able to consider it more objectively. The task of being able to distance judgement about the economy and economic development of Kerry was facilitated by various readings around of a number of key thinkers including Kegan, Drucker, Porter and Penrose. The central themes of Kerry or the potential for economic development are built into each Essay. Essay One focuses on reflections of Kerry life - on Kerry people within and without Kerry - and events as they affected understandings of how people related to and worked with one another. These reflections formed the basis for transformational goals identified which required a shift from an engineering mindset to encompass an economics-based view. In Essay Two knowledge of economic concepts is developed by exploring the writings of Drucker, Penrose, and Porter with pertinence to considering economic development generally, and for Kerry in particular in the form of an ‘entrepreneurial platform’. The concepts and theories were the basis of explorations presented in Essays Three and Four. Essay Three focuses on Kerry’s potential for economic development give its current economic profile and includes results from interviews with selected businesses. Essay Four is an exercise in the application of Porter’s ‘Cluster’ concept to the equine sector.

Symptom burden in individuals with inflammatory bowel disease: a mixed methods study

To investigate the symptom burden experiences of individuals with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). An explanatory sequential mixed methods study was conducted. A cross-sectional, correlational survey was first undertaken. Symptom burden was measured using a modified disease specific version of the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale, which was administered to a consecutive sample of individuals with IBD (n = 247) at an IBD Outpatients department in one urban teaching hospital in Ireland. Disease activity was determined using clinical disease activity indices, which were completed by the consulting physician. A sequential qualitative, descriptive study was then conducted aimed at explaining noteworthy quantitative findings. A criterion-related purposeful sample of seven participants from the quantitative study was recruited. Semi-structured face to face interviews were conducted using an interview guide and data were analysed using content analysis. Findings revealed that participants experienced a median of 10 symptoms during the last week, however as many as 16 symptoms were experienced during active disease. The most burdensome symptoms were lack of energy, bowel urgency, diarrhoea, feeling bloated, flatulence and worry. Total symptom burden was found to be low with a mean score of 0.56 identified out of a possible range from 0 to 4. Participants with active disease (M = 0.81, SD = 0.48; n = 68) had almost double mean total symptom burden scores than participants with inactive disease (M = 0.46, SD = 0.43; n = 166) (p < 0.001). Mean total psychological symptom burden was found to be significantly greater than mean total physical symptom burden (rho = 0.73, n = 247, p < 0.001). Self-reported disease control, gender, number of flare ups in the last two years, and smoking status was found to be significant predictors of total symptom burden, with self-reported disease control identified as the strongest predictor. Qualitative data revealed tiredness, pain, bowel symptoms, worry and fear as being burdensome. Furthermore, symptom burden experiences were described in terms of its impact on restricting aspects of daily activities, which accumulated into restrictions on general life events. Psychological symptom burden was revealed as more problematic than physical symptom burden due to its constant nature, with physical and psychological symptoms described to occur in a cyclical manner. Participants revealed that disease control was evaluated not only in terms of symptoms, but also in terms of their abilities to control the impact of symptoms on their lives. This study highlights the considerable number of symptoms and the most burdensome symptoms experienced by individuals with IBD, both during active and inactive disease. This study has important implications on symptom assessment in terms of the need to encompass both physical and psychological symptoms. In addition, greater attention needs to be placed on psychological aspects of IBD care.

Inquiring into perspective transformation in university education

My Portfolio of Exploration tackles the difficult question as to whether adult mental development can be accelerated and if so how. Rooted in constructive-developmental ideas, adult mental development is explained as an evolutionary unfolding of human capability. Going beyond this I look at the possibility of advancing development as transformational growth in adulthood in the belief that a broader perspective leads to increased effectiveness in professional life. Initially I explored my own meaning making, to make sense of my experiences, knowledge, relationships and my own motivations. This exploration has provided me with a ‘developmental bridge’ between my current way of knowing and a new more enlightened way. I have come to view my way of making meaning in the world as an evolving and progressive sequence of emotional and cognitive development. Through the formation of new stretching experiences, increased self - awareness and reflection my previous perspective has been overtaken by a more complex form of being aware of myself, others and the world. I refer to this process of growth as transformation. As part of my own transformational work I have conducted an inquiry into transformational growth and learning in the early academic life of university undergraduates. The result shows how accelerated adult mental development can be achieved in an academic environment ably preparing students for the workplace. This new model of education is part of a truly unique and exciting model signalling ground-breaking change for the undergraduate experience. The overhaul of a traditional BA degree in Economics into a world-class transformational programme is discussed through-out my Portfolio. Central to my broadening awareness is the challenge and nurturing required to awaken the student’s ‘internal authority’ . This involves stimulating students to take ownership for their own thinking, steering them away from the passivity and complacency of thinking through the minds of others. In doing so, the ultimate aim of renewing the BA is to narrow the developmental ‘mismatch’ which exists for m any college students between them and the world of work, by encouraging and inviting them to take on the challenge of thinking independently. Mindfulness, awareness, and personal authority are treated with reverence throughout the exploration as I consider them core parts of the students engaging with development. Engagement is construed as an active and open-minded process of awareness involving planning and reviewing one’s own goals and performance, engaging in constructive feedback, reflection and new action. I conclude with a view that the journey of adult mental development is relentless and that undergraduate education represents a crucial beginning. The value and relevance of transformational education rooted in developmental principles provides a significant opportunity in advancing development and perspectives at the start of adult life.

The political and economic context of Keynes’s 1933 Finlay lecture: transforming a business practitioner’s ways of knowing

This thesis is structured in the format of a three part Portfolio of Exploration to facilitate transformation in my ways of knowing to enhance an experienced business practitioner’s capabilities and effectiveness. A key factor in my ways of knowing, as opposed to what I know, is my exploration of context and assumptions. By interacting with my cultural, intellectual, economic, and social history, I seek to become critically aware of the biographical, historical, and cultural context of my beliefs and feelings about myself. This Portfolio is not exclusively for historians of economics or historians of ideas but also for those interested in becoming more aware of how these culturally assimilated frames of reference and bundles of assumptions that influence the way they perceive, think, decide, feel and interpret their experiences in order to operate more effectively in their professional and organisational lives. In the first part of my Portfolio, I outline and reflect upon my Portfolio’s overarching theory of adult development; the writings of Harvard’s Robert Kegan and Columbia University’s Jack Mezirow. The second part delves further into how meaning-making, the activity of how one organises and makes sense of the world and how meaning-making evolves to different levels of complexity. I explore how past experience and our interpretations of history influences our understandings since all perception is inevitably tinged with bias and entrenched ‘theory-laden’ assumptions. In my third part, I explore the 1933 inaugural University College Dublin Finlay Lecture delivered by economist John Maynard Keynes. My findings provide a new perspective and understanding of Keynes’s 1933 lecture by not solely reading or relying upon the text of the three contextualised essay versions of his lecture. The purpose and context of Keynes’s original longer lecture version was quite different to the three shorter essay versions published for the American, British and German audiences.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Guam – a case-study of the perceptions, attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge of a small rural community towards their watershed

This thesis argues that examining the attitudes, perceptions, behaviors, and knowledge of a community towards their specific watershed can reveal their social vulnerability to climate change. Understanding and incorporating these elements of the human dimension in coastal zone management will lead to efficient and effective strategies that safeguard the natural resources for the benefit of the community. By having healthy natural resources, ecological and community resilience to climate change will increase, thus decreasing vulnerability. In the Pacific Ocean, climate and SLR are strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. SLR is three times the global average in the Western Pacific Ocean (Merrifield and Maltrud 2011; Merrifield 2011). Changes in annual rainfall in the Western North Pacific sub‐region from 1950-2010 show that islands in the east are getting much less than in the past, while the islands in the west are getting slightly more rainfall (Keener et al. 2013). For Guam, a small island owned by the United States and located in the Western Pacific Ocean, these factors mean that SLR is higher than any other place in the world and will most likely see increased precipitation. Knowing this, the social vulnerability may be examined. Thus, a case-study of the community residing in the Manell and Geus watersheds was conducted on the island of Guam. Measuring their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors should bring to light their vulnerability to climate change. In order to accomplish this, a household survey was administered from July through August 2010. Approximately 350 surveys were analysed using SPSS. To supplement this quantitative data, informal interviews were conducted with the elders of the community to glean traditional ecological knowledge about perceived climate change. A GIS analysis was conducted to understand the physical geography of the Manell and Geus watersheds. This information about the human dimension is valuable to CZM managers. It may be incorporated into strategic watershed plans, to better administer the natural resources within the coastal zone. The research conducted in this thesis is the basis of a recent watershed management plan for the Guam Coastal Management Program (see King 2014).

The role of transformative thinking and practice in a property entrepreneur's response to the funding crisis since 2008

This portfolio of exploration explores the role of transformative thinking and practice in a property entrepreneur’s response to the financial crisis which swept over Ireland from 2008. The complexity of this challenge and the mental capacity to meet its demands is at the core of the exploration. This inquiry emerged from the challenges the financial crisis presented to my values, beliefs, assumptions, and theories, i.e. the interpretive lens through which I make meaning of my experiences. Given the issue identified, this inquiry is grounded in aspects of theories of constructive developmental psychology, applied developmental science, and philosophy. Integrating and linking these elements to business practice is the applied element of the Portfolio. As the 2008 crisis unfolded I realised I was at the limits of my way of knowing. I came to understand that the underlying structure of a way of knowing is the ‘subject-object relationship’ i.e. what a way of knowing can reflect upon, look at, have perspective on, in other words, make object, as against what is it embedded in, attached to, identified within, or subject to. My goal became enhancing my awareness of how I made meaning and how new insights, which would transform a way of knowing, are created. The focus was on enhancing my practice. This Portfolio is structured into three essays. Essay One reported on my self-reflection and external evaluation out of which emerged my developmental goals. In Essay Two I undertake a reading for change programme in which different meaning making systems were confronted in order to challenge me as a meaning maker. Essay Three reported on my experiment which concerned the question whether it was possible for me as a property entrepreneur, and for others alike, to retain bank finance in the face of the overwhelming objective of the bank to deleverage their balance sheet of property loans. The output of my research can be grouped into General Developmental and Specific Business Implications. Firstly I address those who are interested in a transformational-based response to the challenges of operating in the property sector in Ireland during a crisis. I outline the apparatus of thought that I used to create insight, and thus transform how I thought, these are Awareness, Subject-object separation, Exploring other’s perspectives from the position of incompleteness, Dialectical thinking and Collingwood’s Questioning activity. Secondly I set out my learnings from the crisis and their impact on entrepreneurial behaviour and the business of property development. I identify ten key insights that have emerged from leading a property company through the crisis. Many of these are grounded in common sense, however, in my experience these were, to borrow Shakespeare’s words, “More honor'd in the breach than the observance” in pre Crisis Ireland. Finally I set out a four-step approach for forging a strategy. This requires my peer practitioners to identify (i) what they are subject to, (ii) Assess the Opportunity or challenge in a Systemic Context, (iii) Explore Multiple Perspectives on the opportunity or Challenge with an Orientation to change how you know and (iv) Using the Questioning Activity to create Knowledge. Based on my experience I conclude that transformative thinking and practice is a key enabler for a property entrepreneur, in responding to a major collapse of traditional (bank debt) funding.

Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.

Learning to 'understand backwards' in time: children's temporal cognition and the primary history curriculum

This study examines children’s temporal ways of knowing and it highlights the centrality of temporal cognition in the development of children’s historical understanding. It explores how young children conceptualise time and it examines the provision for temporal cognition at the levels of the intended, enacted and received history curriculum in the Irish primary school context. Positioning temporality as a prerequisite second-order concept, the study recognises the essential role of both first-order and additional second-order concepts in historical understanding. While the former can be defined as the basic, substantive content to be taught, the latter refers to a number of additional key concepts that are deemed fundamental to children's capacity to make meaningful sense of history. The study argues for due recognition to be given to temporality, in the belief that both sets of knowledge, the content and skills, are required to develop historical thinking (Lévesque, 2011). The study addresses a number of key research questions, using a mixed methods research design, comprising an analysis of history textbooks, a survey among final year student teachers about their teaching of history, and school-based interviews with primary school children: What opportunities are available for children to develop temporal ways of knowing? How do student teachers experience being apprenticed into the available culture for teaching history and understanding temporality at primary level? What insights do the cognitive-developmental and sociocultural perspectives on learning provide for understanding the dynamics of children’s temporal ways of knowing? The study argues that the skill of developing a deeper understanding of time is a key prerequisite in connecting with, and constructing, understandings and frameworks of the past. The study advances a view of temporality as complex, multi-faceted and developmental. The findings have a potential contribution to make in influencing policy and pedagogy in establishing an elaborated and well-defined curriculum framework for developing temporal cognition at both national and international levels.