Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

The reproductive biology of the exploited razor clam, Ensis siliqua, in the Irish Sea

Knowledge of the reproductive cycle of a species is a prerequisite for sustainable management of a fishery. The infaunal marine bivalve, Ensis siliqua, is a commercially important species in Europe, and is exploited in many countries, including Ireland, where it is sold by wet weight. Seasonal variations in the reproductive cycle of subtidal razor clams from the Skerries region of the Irish Sea, an important fisheries area, were examined between June 2010 and September 2011 while monitoring weight. Histological examination revealed that the E. siliqua sex-ratio was not different from parity, and no hermaphrodites were observed in the samples collected. In the summer months of 2010 all female clams were either spent or in early development, with just a small percentage of males still spawning. The gonads of both sexes developed over the autumn and winter months of 2010, with the first spawning individuals recorded in January 2011. Spawning peaked in March 2011, but unlike in 2010, spawning continued through June and July with all animals spent in August 2011. The earlier and longer spawning period found in this species in 2011 compared to 2010 may have been due to the colder than normal temperature observed during the winter of 2010 plus the relatively warmer temperatures of Spring 2011, which could have affected the gametogenic development of E. siliqua in the Irish Sea. It was noted that wet weight dropped in the summer months of both years, immediately after the spawning period which may impact on the practicality of fishing for this species during this period. Timing of development and spawning is compared with other sites in the Irish Sea and elsewhere in Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula.

Characterisation of the role of Fas in intestinal inflammation and cancer

Background: The role of Fas (CD95) and its ligand, Fas ligand (FasL/CD95L), is poorly understood in the intestine. Whilst Fas is best studies in terms of its function in apoptosis, recent studies suggest that Fas ligation may mediate additional, non-apoptotic functions such as inflammation. Toll like Receptors (TLRs) play an important role in mediating inflammation and homeostasis in the intestine. Recent studies have shown that a level of crosstalk exists between the Fas and TLR signalling pathways but this has not yet been investigated in the intestine. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate potential cross-talk between TLRs and Fas/FasL system in intestinal cancer cells. Results: Treatment with TLR4 and TLR5 ligands, but not ligands for TLR2 and TLR9 increased the expression of Fas and FasL in intestinal cancer cells in vitro. Consistent with this, expression of Fas and FasL was reduced in the distal colon tissue from germ-free (GF), TLR4 and TLR5 knock-out (KO) mice but was unchanged in TLR2KO tissue, suggesting that intestinal cancer cells display a degree of specificity in their ability to upregulate Fas and FasL expression in response to TLR ligation. Expression of both Fas and FasL was significantly reduced in TRIF KO tissue, indicating that signalling via TRIF by TLR4 and TLR5 agonists may be responsible for the induction of Fas and FasL expression in intestinal cancer cells. In addition, modulating Fas signalling using agonistic anti-Fas augmented TLR4 and TLR5-mediated tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) and interleukin 8 (IL)-8 production by intestinal cancer cells, suggesting crosstalk occurs between these receptors in these cells. Furthermore, suppression of Fas in intestinal cancer cells reduced the ability of the intestinal pathogens, Salmonella typhimurium and Listeria monocytogenes to induce the expression of IL-8, suggesting that Fas signalling may play a role in intestinal host defence against pathogens. Inflammation is known to be important in colon tumourigenesis and Fas signalling on intestinal cancer cells has been shown to result in the production of inflammatory mediators. Fas-mediated signalling may therefore play a role in colon cancer development. Suppression of tumour-derived Fas by 85% led to a reduction in the tumour volume and changes in tumour infiltrating macrophages and neutrophils. TLR4 signalling has been shown to play a role in colon cancer via the recruitment and activation of alternatively activated immune cells. Given the crosstalk seen between Fas and TLR4 signalling in intestinal cancer cells in vitro, suppressing Fas signalling may enhance the efficacy of TLR4 antagonism in vivo. TLR4 antagonism resulted in smaller tumours with fewer infiltrating neutrophils. Whilst Fas downregulation did not significantly augment the ability of TLR4 antagonism to reduce the final tumour volume, Fas suppression may augment the anti-tumour effects of TLR4 antagonism as neutrophil infiltration was further reduced upon combinatorial treatment. Conclusion: Together, this study demonstrates evidence of a new role for Fas in the intestinal immune response and that manipulating Fas signalling has potential anti-tumour benefit.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Integrated magnetic components for high-power high-current dc-dc converters

This thesis is focused on the design and development of an integrated magnetic (IM) structure for use in high-power high-current power converters employed in renewable energy applications. These applications require low-cost, high efficiency and high-power density magnetic components and the use of IM structures can help achieve this goal. A novel CCTT-core split-winding integrated magnetic (CCTT IM) is presented in this thesis. This IM is optimized for use in high-power dc-dc converters. The CCTT IM design is an evolution of the traditional EE-core integrated magnetic (EE IM). The CCTT IM structure uses a split-winding configuration allowing for the reduction of external leakage inductance, which is a problem for many traditional IM designs, such as the EE IM. Magnetic poles are incorporated to help shape and contain the leakage flux within the core window. These magnetic poles have the added benefit of minimizing the winding power loss due to the airgap fringing flux as they shape the fringing flux away from the split-windings. A CCTT IM reluctance model is developed which uses fringing equations to accurately predict the most probable regions of fringing flux around the pole and winding sections of the device. This helps in the development of a more accurate model as it predicts the dc and ac inductance of the component. A CCTT IM design algorithm is developed which relies heavily on the reluctance model of the CCTT IM. The design algorithm is implemented using the mathematical software tool Mathematica. This algorithm is modular in structure and allows for the quick and easy design and prototyping of the CCTT IM. The algorithm allows for the investigation of the CCTT IM boxed volume with the variation of input current ripple, for different power ranges, magnetic materials and frequencies. A high-power 72 kW CCTT IM prototype is designed and developed for use in an automotive fuelcell-based drivetrain. The CCTT IM design algorithm is initially used to design the component while 3D and 2D finite element analysis (FEA) software is used to optimize the design. Low-cost and low-power loss ferrite 3C92 is used for its construction, and when combined with a low number of turns results in a very efficient design. A paper analysis is undertaken which compares the performance of the high-power CCTT IM design with that of two discrete inductors used in a two-phase (2L) interleaved converter. The 2L option consists of two discrete inductors constructed from high dc-bias material. Both topologies are designed for the same worst-case phase current ripple conditions and this ensures a like-for-like comparison. The comparison indicates that the total magnetic component boxed volume of both converters is similar while the CCTT IM has significantly lower power loss. Experimental results for the 72 kW, (155 V dc, 465 A dc input, 420 V dc output) prototype validate the CCTT IM concept where the component is shown to be 99.7 % efficient. The high-power experimental testing was conducted at General Motors advanced technology center in Torrence, Los Angeles. Calorific testing was used to determine the power loss in the CCTT IM component. Experimental 3.8 kW results and a 3.8 kW prototype compare and contrast the ferrite CCTT IM and high dc-bias 2L concepts over the typical operating range of a fuelcell under like-for-like conditions. The CCTT IM is shown to perform better than the 2L option over the entire power range. An 8 kW ferrite CCTT IM prototype is developed for use in photovoltaic (PV) applications. The CCTT IM is used in a boost pre-regulator as part of the PV power stage. The CCTT IM is compared with an industry standard 2L converter consisting of two discrete ferrite toroidal inductors. The magnetic components are compared for the same worst-case phase current ripple and the experimental testing is conducted over the operation of a PV panel. The prototype CCTT IM allows for a 50 % reduction in total boxed volume and mass in comparison to the baseline 2L option, while showing increased efficiency.

Micro and nanostructured impedance sensors for biological and biomedical applications

This thesis work covered the fabrication and characterisation of impedance sensors for biological applications aiming in particular to the cytotoxicity monitoring of cultured cells exposed to different kind of chemical compounds and drugs and to the identification of different types of biological tissue (fat, muscles, nerves) using a sensor fabricated on the tip of a commercially available needle during peripheral nerve block procedures. Gold impedance electrodes have been successfully fabricated for impedance measurement on cells cultured on the electrode surface which was modified with the fabrication of gold nanopillars. These nanostructures have a height of 60nm or 100nm and they have highly ordered layout as they are fabricated through the e-beam technique. The fabrication of the threedimensional structures on the interdigitated electrodes was supposed to improve the sensitivity of the ECIS (electric cell-substrate impedance sensing) measurement while monitoring the cytotoxicity effects of two different drugs (Antrodia Camphorata extract and Nicotine) on three different cell lines (HeLa, A549 and BALBc 3T3) cultured on the impedance devices and change the morphology of the cells growing on the nanostructured electrodes. The fabrication of the nanostructures was achieved combining techniques like UV lithography, metal lift-off, evaporation and e-beam lithography techniques. The electrodes were packaged using a pressure sensitive, medical grade adhesive double-sided tape. The electrodes were then characterised with the aid of AFM and SEM imaging which confirmed the success of the fabrication processes showing the nanopillars fabricated with the right layout and dimensions figures. The introduction of nanopillars on the impedance electrodes, however, did not improve much the sensitivity of the assay with the exception of tests carried out with Nicotine. HeLa and A549 cells appeared to grow in a different way on the two surfaces, while no differences where noticed on the BALBc 3T3 cells. Impedance measurements obtained with the dead cells on the negative control electrodes or the test electrodes with the drugs can be compared to those done on the electrodes containing just media in the tested volume (as no cells are attached and cover the electrode surface). The impedance figures recorded using these electrodes were between 1.5kΩ and 2.5 kΩ, while the figures recorded on confluent cell layers range between 4kΩ and 5.5kΩ with peaks of almost 7 kΩ if there was more than one layer of cells growing on each other. There was then a very clear separation between the values of living cell compared to the dead ones which was almost 2.5 - 3kΩ. In this way it was very easy to determine whether the drugs affected the cells normal life cycle on not. However, little or no differences were noticed in the impedance analysis carried out on the two different kinds of electrodes using cultured cells. An increase of sensitivity was noticed only in a couple of experiments carried out on A549 cells growing on the nanostructured electrodes and exposed to different concentration of a solution containing Nicotine. More experiments to achieve a higher number of statistical evidences will be needed to prove these findings with an absolute confidence. The smart needle project aimed to reduce the limitations of the Electrical Nerve Stimulation (ENS) and the Ultra Sound Guided peripheral nerve block techniques giving the clinicians an additional tool for performing correctly the peripheral nerve block. Bioimpedance, as measured at the needle tip, provides additional information on needle tip location, thereby facilitating detection of intraneural needle placement. Using the needle as a precision instrument and guidance tool may provide additional information as to needle tip location and enhance safety in regional anaesthesia. In the time analysis, with the frequency fixed at 10kHz and the samples kept at 12°C, the approximate range for muscle bioimpedance was 203 – 616 Ω, the approximate bioimpedance range for fat was 5.02 - 17.8 kΩ and the approximate range for connective tissue was 790 Ω – 1.55 kΩ. While when the samples were heated at 37°C and measured again at 10kHz, the approximate bioimpedance range for muscle was 100-175Ω. The approximate bioimpedance range of fat was 627 Ω - 3.2 kΩ and the range for connective tissue was 221-540Ω. In the experiments done on the fresh slaughtered lamb carcass, replicating a scenario close to the real application, the impedance values recorded for fat were around 17 kΩ, for muscle and lean tissue around 1.3 kΩ while the nervous structures had an impedance value of 2.9 kΩ. With the data collected during this research, it was possible to conclude that measurements of bioimpedance at the needle tip location can give valuable information to the clinicians performing a peripheral nerve block procedure as the separation (in terms of impedance figures) was very marked between the different type of tissues. It is then feasible to use an impedance electrode fabricated on the needle tip to differentiate several tissues from the nerve tissue. Currently, several different methods are being studied to fabricate an impedance electrode on the surface of a commercially available needle used for the peripheral nerve block procedure.