Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Transitions: From novice participation to expertise, pre-school 'matters' in an Irish pre-school community

This in depth, qualitative, participant observer study tracks children's transition experiences from novice to experienced membership of their pre-school community. It also considers adult roles in mediating this process in the context of the recent introduction of a universal free-pre-school year for children growing up in Ireland. Participation and the space to negotiate a participatory identity is understood in this study as a key element of positive experiences of early years transitions, within pre-school and beyond. The underlying theoretical framework is socio-cultural. This approach shifts from a scientific positivist view of thinking and learning as an individual inside the head process and asserts the historical, social, cultural as well as the situated context of learning and meaning making All participants, including myself as researcher, are recognised, explored and valued as embedded in the cultural context studied. In a sense, this approach tilts the worlds being observed through participation in them and reflects them in new light. The aim is to interpret and reflect the multiple realities constructed in this context rather than seek a truth out there waiting to be found. Special efforts are made to be invited in to and acknowledge children's expertise in the cultural worlds they negotiate with peers and adults in pre-school. The aim is to better understand what children may find motivating, interesting or problematic as they interpret reproduce and transform meaning within their play and learning worlds. My aim is for an honest rendering of the voices of stakeholders in pre-school communities from teachers, parents, and policy makers to children themselves. It makes visible constraints; potentials and possibilities within everyday Irish pre-school practices in the situated context studied as well as the broader societal, legislative and macro policy influences it reflects. Casting light on the taken for granted opens the possibility of adaptation or transformation. Transition itself can act as a tool to meet the changing needs of children on their developmental pathways across the life cycle