Optimisation of the food dairy coop supply chain

In the European Union under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) milk production was restricted by milk quotas since 1984. However, due to recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), milk quotas will be abolished by 2015. Therefore, the European dairy sector will soon face an opportunity, for the first time in a generation, to expand. Numerous studies have shown that milk production in Ireland will increase significantly post quotas (Laepple and Hennessy (2010), Donnellan and Hennessy (2007) and Lips and Reider (2005)). The research in this thesis explored milk transport and dairy product processing in the Irish dairy processing sector in the context of milk quota removal and expansion by 2020. In this study a national milk transport model was developed for the Irish dairy industry, the model was used to examine different efficiency factors in milk transport and to estimate milk transport costs post milk quota abolition. Secondly, the impact of different milk supply profiles on milk transport costs was investigated using the milk transport model. Current processing capacity in Ireland was compared against future supply, it was concluded that additional milk processing capacity would not be sufficient to process the additional milk. Thirdly, the milk transport model was used to identify the least cost locations (based on transport costs) to process the additional milk supply in 2020. Finally, an optimisation model was developed to identify the optimum configuration for the Irish dairy processing sector in 2020 taking cognisance of increasing transport costs and decreasing processing costs.

Dilute nitride semiconductors : band structure, scattering and high field transport

The substitution of a small fraction x of nitrogen atoms, for the group V elements in conventional III-V semiconductors such as GaAs and GaSb strongly perturbs the conduction band of the host semiconductor. In this thesis we investigate the effects of nitrogen states on the band dispersion, carrier scattering and mobility of dilute nitride alloys. In the supercell model we solve the single particle Hamiltonian for a very large supercell containing randomly placed nitrogen. This model predicts a gap in the density of states of GaNxAs1−x, where this gap is filled in the Green’s function model. Therefore we develop a self-consistent Green’s function (SCGF) approach, which provides excellent agreement with supercell calculations and reveals a gap in the DOS, in contrast with the results of previous non-self-consistent Green’s function calculations. However, including the distribution of N states destroys this gap, as seen in experiment. We then examine the high field transport of carriers by solving the steadystate Boltzmann transport equation and find that it is necessary to include the full distribution of N levels in order to account for the small, low-field mobility and the absence of a negative differential velocity regime observed experimentally with increasing x. Overall the results account well for a wide range of experimental data. We also investigate the band structure, scattering and mobility of carriers by finding the poles of the SCGF, which gives lower carrier mobility for GaNxAs1−x, compared to those already calculated, in better agreement with experiments. The calculated optical absorption spectra for InyGa1−yNxAs1−x and GaNxSb1−x using the SCGF agree well with the experimental data, confirming the validity of this approach to study the band structure of these materials.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.