Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications among older adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes: findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Objective. To explore risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications in a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and over with type 2 diabetes in Ireland. Methods. Data from the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (2009–2011) was used in cross-sectional analysis. The presence of doctor diagnosis of diabetes, risk factors, and macro and microvascular complications were determined by self-report. Gender-specific differences in risk factor prevalence were assessed with the chi-squared test. Binomial regression analysis was conducted to explore independent associations between established risk factors and diabetes-related complications. Results. Among 8175 respondents, 655 were classified as having type 2 diabetes. Older age, being male, a history of smoking, a lower level of physical activity, and a diagnosis of high cholesterol were independent predictors of macrovascular complications. Diabetes diagnosis of 10 or more years, a history of smoking, and a diagnosis of hypertension were associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications. Older age, third-level education, and a high level of physical activity were protective factors (

Gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia: evidence from genetic mouse models

The study of gene × environment, as well as epistatic interactions in schizophrenia, has provided important insight into the complex etiopathologic basis of schizophrenia. It has also increased our understanding of the role of susceptibility genes in the disorder and is an important consideration as we seek to translate genetic advances into novel antipsychotic treatment targets. This review summarises data arising from research involving the modelling of gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia using preclinical genetic models. Evidence for synergistic effects on the expression of schizophrenia-relevant endophenotypes will be discussed. It is proposed that valid and multifactorial preclinical models are important tools for identifying critical areas, as well as underlying mechanisms, of convergence of genetic and environmental risk factors, and their interaction in schizophrenia.

Risk of repeated self-harm and associated factors in children, adolescents and young adults

Background: Repeated self-harm represents the single strongest risk factor for suicide. To date no study with full national coverage has examined the pattern of hospital repeated presentations due to self-harm among young people. Methods: Data on consecutive self-harm presentations were obtained from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics of individuals aged 10–29 years who presented with self-harm to emergency departments in Ireland (2007–2014) were analysed. Risk of long-term repetition was assessed using survival analysis and time differences between the order of presentations using generalised estimating equation analysis. Results: The total sample comprised 28,700 individuals involving 42,642 presentations. Intentional drug overdose was the most prevalent method (57.9%). Repetition of self-harm occurred in 19.2% of individuals during the first year following a first presentation, of whom the majority (62.7%) engaged in one repeated act. Overall, the risk of repeated self-harm was similar between males and females. However, in the 20–24-year-old age group males were at higher risk than females. Those who used self-cutting were at higher risk for repetition than those who used intentional drug overdose, particularly among females. Age was associated with repetition only among females, in particular adolescents (15–19 years old) were at higher risk than young emerging adults (20–24 years old). Repeated self-harm risk increased significantly with the number of previous self-harm episodes. Time differences between first self-harm presentations were detected. Time between second and third presentation increased compared to time between first and second presentation among low frequency repeaters (patients with 3 presentations only within 1 year following a first presentation). The same time period decreased among high frequency repeaters (patients with at least 4 to more than 30 presentations). Conclusion: Young people with the highest risk for repeated self-harm were 15–19-year-old females and 20–24-year-old males. Self-cutting was the method associated with the highest risk of self-harm repetition. Time between first self-harm presentations represents an indicator of subsequent repetition. To prevent risk of repeated self-harm in young people, all individuals presenting at emergency departments due to self-harm should be provided with a risk assessment including psychosocial characteristics, history of self-harm and time between first presentations.