Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

A review of road structure data in six European countries

The European Union has expanded significantly in recent years. Sustainable trade within the Union, leading to economic growth to the benefit of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ member states is thus extremely important. The road infrastructure is strategic and vital to such development since an uneven transport infrastructure, in terms of capacity and condition, has the potential to reinforce uneven development trends and hinder economic convergence of old and new member states. In the decades since their design and construction, loading conditions have significantly changed for many major highway infrastructure elements/networks owing primarily to increased freight volumes and vehicle sizes. This, coupled with the gradual deterioration of a significant number of highway structures due to their age, and the absence of a pan-European assessment framework, can be expected to affect the smooth functioning of the infrastructure in its as-built condition. Increased periods of reduced flow can be expected owing to planned and unplanned interventions for repair/rehabilitation. This paper reports the findings of a survey regarding the current status of the highway infrastructure elements in six countries within the European Union as reported by the owners/operators. The countries surveyed include a cross-section of ‘existing’ older countries and ‘new’ member states. The current situations for bridges, culverts, tunnels and retaining walls are reported, along with their potential replacement costs. The findings act as a departure point for further studies in support of a centralised and/or synchronised EU approach to infrastructure maintenance management. Information in the form presented in this paper is central to any future decision-making frameworks in terms of trade route choice and operations, monetary investment, optimised maintenance, management and rehabilitation of the built infrastructure and the economic integration of the newly joined member states.

Novel efficient technologies in Europe for axle bearing condition monitoring – the MAXBE project

Axle bearing damage with possible catastrophic failures can cause severe disruptions or even dangerous derailments, potentially causing loss of human life and leading to significant costs for railway infrastructure managers and rolling stock operators. Consequently the axle bearing damage process has safety and economic implications on the exploitation of railways systems. Therefore it has been the object of intense attention by railway authorities as proved by the selection of this topic by the European Commission in calls for research proposals. The MAXBE Project (http://www.maxbeproject.eu/), an EU-funded project, appears in this context and its main goal is to develop and to demonstrate innovative and efficient technologies which can be used for the onboard and wayside condition monitoring of axle bearings. The MAXBE (interoperable monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance strategies for axle bearings) project focuses on detecting axle bearing failure modes at an early stage by combining new and existing monitoring techniques and on characterizing the axle bearing degradation process. The consortium for the MAXBE project comprises 18 partners from 8 member states, representing operators, railway administrations, axle bearing manufactures, key players in the railway community and experts in the field of monitoring, maintenance and rolling stock. The University of Porto is coordinating this research project that kicked-off in November 2012 and it is completed on October 2015. Both on-board and wayside systems are explored in the project since there is a need for defining the requirement for the onboard equipment and the range of working temperatures of the axle bearing for the wayside systems. The developed monitoring systems consider strain gauges, high frequency accelerometers, temperature sensors and acoustic emission. To get a robust technology to support the decision making of the responsible stakeholders synchronized measurements from onboard and wayside monitoring systems are integrated into a platform. Also extensive laboratory tests were performed to correlate the in situ measurements to the status of the axle bearing life. With the MAXBE project concept it will be possible: to contribute to detect at an early stage axle bearing failures; to create conditions for the operational and technical integration of axle bearing monitoring and maintenance in different European railway networks; to contribute to the standardization of the requirements for the axle bearing monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance. Demonstration of the developed condition monitoring systems was performed in Portugal in the Northern Railway Line with freight and passenger traffic with a maximum speed of 220 km/h, in Belgium in a tram line and in the UK. Still within the project, a tool for optimal maintenance scheduling and a smart diagnostic tool were developed. This paper presents a synthesis of the most relevant results attained in the project. The successful of the project and the developed solutions have positive impact on the reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of rolling stock and infrastructure with main focus on the axle bearing health.