Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Pretty good governance: balancing policy drivers and stakeholder interests in developing fisheries ecosystem plans

The central research question that this thesis addresses is whether there is a significant gap between fishery stakeholder values and the principles and policy goals implicit in an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). The implications of such a gap for fisheries governance are explored. Furthermore an assessment is made of what may be practically achievable in the implementation of an EAFM in fisheries in general and in a case study fishery in particular. The research was mainly focused on a particular case study, the Celtic Sea Herring fishery and its management committee, the Celtic Sea Herring Management Advisory Committee (CSHMAC). The Celtic Sea Herring fishery exhibits many aspects of an EAFM and the fish stock has successfully recovered to healthy levels in the past 5 years. However there are increasing levels of governance related conflict within the fishery which threaten the future sustainability of the stock. Previous research on EAFM governance has tended to focus either on higher levels of EAFM governance or on individual behaviour but very little research has attempted to link the two spheres or explore the relationship between them. Two main themes within this study aimed to address this gap. The first was what role governance could play in facilitating EAFM implementation. The second theme concerned the degree of convergence between high-level EAFM goals and stakeholder values. The first method applied was governance benchmarking to analyse systemic risks to EAFM implementation. This found that there are no real EU or national level policies which provide stakeholders or managers with clear targets for EAFM implementation. The second method applied was the use of cognitive mapping to explore stakeholders understandings of the main ecological, economic and institutional driving forces in the Celtic Sea Herring fishery. The main finding from this was that a long-term outlook can and has been incentivised through a combination of policy drivers and participatory management. However the fundamental principle of EAFM, accounting for ecosystem linkages rather than target stocks was not reflected in stakeholders cognitive maps. This was confirmed in a prioritisation of stakeholders management priorities using Analytic Hierarchy Process which found that the overriding concern is for protection of target stock status but that wider ecosystem health was not a priority for most management participants. The conclusion reached is that moving to sustainable fisheries may be a more complex process than envisioned in much of the literature and may consist of two phases. The first phase is a transition to a long-term but still target stock focused approach. This achievable transition is mainly a strategic change, which can be incentivised by policies and supported by stakeholders. In the Celtic Sea Herring fishery, and an increasing number of global and European fisheries, such transitions have contributed to successful stock recoveries. The second phase however, implementation of an ecosystem approach, may present a greater challenge in terms of governability, as this research highlights some fundamental conflicts between stakeholder perceptions and values and those inherent in an EAFM. This phase may involve the setting aside of fish for non-valued ecosystem elements and will require either a pronounced mind-set and value change or some strong top-down policy incentives in order to succeed. Fisheries governance frameworks will need to carefully explore the most effective balance between such endogenous and exogenous solutions. This finding of low prioritisation of wider ecosystem elements has implications for rights based management within an ecosystem approach, regardless of whether those rights are individual or collective.

The life history and ecology of black scabbardfish (Aphanopus carbo Lowe 1839) in the north-east Atlantic

The black scabbardfish is a deep water species that supports commercial fisheries across a large area of the NE Atlantic shelf. The life history of black scabbardfish is poorly understood and a major unresolved issue is population structure. In this study it was used a combination of methodologies to get further knowledge in the life history and population structure of A. carbo over its wide distribution range in the Northeast Atlantic. The new knowledge acquired during this study, will increase our ability to better manage this species in the NE Atlantic. It has been postulated that fish caught to the west of the British Isles are pre-adults that migrate further south (to Madeira) for spawning, implying a single panmictic population. In this study, specimens of Aphanopus carbo were sampled between September 2008 and May 2010 from two different areas: NW Scotland (French trawlers and deep water surveys) and Madeira Islands (longliners commercial landings). Geographical differences in reproductive state of scabbardfish were evident, supportive of a north-south migration theory. In the northern area, all specimens found were immature, while in Madeira all maturity stages were observed. In Madeira, spawning occurred during the fourth quarter, with peak maturity in October (males) and in November (females). The age of this species has proven difficult and has led to different and contradictory age and growth estimates. For this study, we used two reading interpretations to determine age and estimate the growth parameters. To the west of the British Isles, specimens reached a lower maximum age and had a higher growth rate than those caught off Madeira. These differences are consistent with the theory of a single population of black scabbardfish in the NE Atlantic, highly segregate, with smaller, immature and younger fish caught to the west of the British Isles and bigger and mature caught in Madeira Islands. The feeding ecology showed strong evidence that the diet of black scabbardfish is associated with the spawning migration of blue whiting, which may support a northerly feeding migration theory for black scabbardfish. The stable isotope analyses in the muscle of black scabbardfish identified that black scabbardfish feeds on species with epipelagic and benthopelagic affinities. Comparison with stable isotope analysis in Madeira samples indicated that black scabbardfish feed at a similar trophic level and has the same trophic niche width in both areas, assuming similar baseline isotope compositions. Otolith stable isotopes (oxygen - δ18O and nitrogen - δ15N) analyses were used as a tool to clarify migratory behaviour. Otolith isotope ratios can provide insight into whether adults caught around Madeira fed in an isotopically depleted northerly ecosystem (NW Scotland) during their pre-adult period and then migrate towards south to spawn. Overall, the results support a south-north migration of pre adult fish from spawning areas around Madeira and a north-south migration from the west of Scotland to the spawning areas. Given its life cycle there is an urgent need that the management process recognizes the existence of a continuous widely distributed stock of black scabbardfish between the west of the British Isles and Madeira. The results highlight large scale dispersal in this species which needs to be treated as a highly migratory species and be managed as a single population.

Initial losses, corporate governance and earnings management

This thesis examines the relationship between initial loss events and the corporate governance and earnings management behaviour of these firms. This is done using four years of corporate governance information spanning the report of an initial loss for companies listed on the UK Stock Exchange. An industry- and sizematched control sample is used in a difference-in-difference analysis to isolate the impact of the initial loss event during the period. It is reported that, in general, an initial loss motivates an improvement in corporate governance in those loss firms where a relative weakness existed prior to the loss and that these changes mainly occur before the initial loss is announced. Firms with stronger (i.e. better quality) corporate governance have less need to alter it in response to the loss. It is also reported that initial loss firms use positive abnormal accruals in the year before the loss in an attempt to defer/avoid the loss — the weaker corporate governance the more likely is it that loss firms manage earnings in this manner. Abnormal accruals are also found to be predictive of an initial loss and when used as a conditioning variable, the quality of corporate governance is an important mitigating factor in this regard. Once the loss is reported, loss firms unwind these abnormal accruals although no evidence of big-bath behaviour is found. The extent to which these abnormal accruals are subsequently unwound are also found to be a function of both the quality of corporate governance as well as the severity of the initial loss.

The study of molecular variation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and brown trout (Salmo trutta L.)

Polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci were used here in three studies, one on Salmo salar and two on S. trutta. In the case of S. salar, the survival of native fish and non-natives from a nearby catchment, and their hybrids, were compared in a freshwater common garden experiment and subsequently in ocean ranching, with parental assignment utilising microsatellites. Overall survival of non-natives was 35% of natives. This differential survival was mainly in the oceanic phase. These results imply a genetic basis and suggest local adaptation can occur in salmonids across relatively small geographic distances which may have important implications for the management of salmon populations. In the first case study with S trutta, the species was investigated throughout its spread as an invasive in Newfoundland, eastern Canada. Genetic investigation confirmed historical records that the majority of introductions were from a Scottish hatchery and provided a clear example of the structure of two expanding waves of spread along coasts, probably by natural straying of anadromous individuals, to the north and south of the point of human introduction. This study showed a clearer example of the genetic anatomy of an invasion than in previous studies with brown trout, and may have implications for the management of invasive species in general. Finally, the genetics of anadromous S. trutta from the Waterville catchment in south western Ireland were studied. Two significantly different population groupings, from tributaries in geographically distinct locations entering the largest lake in the catchment, were identified. These results were then used to assign very large rod caught sea trout individuals (so called “specimen” sea trout) back to region of origin, in a Genetic Stock Identification exercise. This suggested that the majority of these large sea trout originated from one of the two tributary groups. These results are relevant for the understanding of sea trout population dynamics and for the future management of this and other sea trout producing catchments. This thesis has demonstrated new insights into the population structuring of salmonids both between and within catchments. While these chapters look at the existence and scale of genetic variation from different angles, it might be concluded that the overarching message from this thesis should be to highlight the importance of maintaining genetic diversity in salmonid populations as vital for their long-term productivity and resilience.