Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

A preliminary study on how fatigue affects scoring average in professional darts

The purpose of this preliminary study is to identify signs of fatigue in specific muscle groups that in turn directly influence accuracy in professional darts. Electromyography (EMG) sensors are employed to monitor the electrical activity produced by skeletal muscles of the trunk and upper limb during throw. It is noted that the Flexor Pollicis Brevis muscle which controls the critical release action during throw shows signs of fatigue. This is accompanied by an inherent increase in mean integral EMG amplitude for a number of other throw related muscles indicating an attempt to maintain constant applied throwing force. A strong correlation is shown to exist between average score and decrease in mean integral ECG amplitude for the Flexor Pollicis Brevis.

Studies on Formica lugubris Zetterstedt in Ireland (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

This thesis is based on studies of Formica lugubris from 1972-1975. While this species' range is diminishing in Ireland, the nests are quite common in the State plantations of South Tipperary. It is not certain that the species is indigenous. Above-ground activity occurs from late-February to the end of October; foraging begins in April. Two territorial "spring-battles" between neighbouring nests are described. Most active nests produced alatae of both sexes and flights were observed on successive June mornings above l7.5°C air temperature. Both polygyny and polycaly seem to be rare. Where the nests occur commonly, the recorded densities are similar to those reported from the continent. Most nests persisted at the same site since 1973. The nest-sites are described by recording an array of nest, soil, tree, vegetation and location variables at each site. Pinus sylvestris is the most important overhead tree. Nests seem to be the same age as their surrounding plantation and reach a maximum of c. 30 years. Nearest-neighbour analysis suggests the sites are overdispersed. Forager route-fidelity was studied and long-term absence from the route, anaesthetization and "removal" of an aphid tree had little effect on this fidelity. There were no identifiable groups of workers specifically honeydew or prey-carriers. Size-duty relationships of workers participating in adult transport are described. Foraging rhythms were studied on representative days: the numbers foraging were linearly related to temperature. Route-traffic passed randomly and an average foraging trip lasted c. four hours. Annual food intake to a nest with 25 000 foragers was estimated at approximately 75 kg honeydew and 2 million prey-items. Forager-numbers and colony-size were estimated using the capture-mark - recapture method: paint marking was used for the forager estimate and an interval radiophosphorus mark, detected by autoradiography, was used for the colony-size estimate. The aphids attended by lugubris and the nest myrmecophiles are recorded.

Modular average case analysis: Language implementation and extension

Motivated by accurate average-case analysis, MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA) is developed at the Centre for Efficiency Oriented Languages (CEOL). In essence, MOQA allows the programmer to determine the average running time of a broad class of programmes directly from the code in a (semi-)automated way. The MOQA approach has the property of randomness preservation which means that applying any operation to a random structure, results in an output isomorphic to one or more random structures, which is key to systematic timing. Based on original MOQA research, we discuss the design and implementation of a new domain specific scripting language based on randomness preserving operations and random structures. It is designed to facilitate compositional timing by systematically tracking the distributions of inputs and outputs. The notion of a labelled partial order (LPO) is the basic data type in the language. The programmer uses built-in MOQA operations together with restricted control flow statements to design MOQA programs. This MOQA language is formally specified both syntactically and semantically in this thesis. A practical language interpreter implementation is provided and discussed. By analysing new algorithms and data restructuring operations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the MOQA approach. Also we extend MOQA theory to a number of other domains besides average-case analysis. We show the strong connection between MOQA and parallel computing, reversible computing and data entropy analysis.

Practical programming for static average-case analysis: the MOQA investigation

This work considers the static calculation of a program’s average-case time. The number of systems that currently tackle this research problem is quite small due to the difficulties inherent in average-case analysis. While each of these systems make a pertinent contribution, and are individually discussed in this work, only one of them forms the basis of this research. That particular system is known as MOQA. The MOQA system consists of the MOQA language and the MOQA static analysis tool. Its technique for statically determining average-case behaviour centres on maintaining strict control over both the data structure type and the labeling distribution. This research develops and evaluates the MOQA language implementation, and adds to the functions already available in this language. Furthermore, the theory that backs MOQA is generalised and the range of data structures for which the MOQA static analysis tool can determine average-case behaviour is increased. Also, some of the MOQA applications and extensions suggested in other works are logically examined here. For example, the accuracy of classifying the MOQA language as reversible is investigated, along with the feasibility of incorporating duplicate labels into the MOQA theory. Finally, the analyses that take place during the course of this research reveal some of the MOQA strengths and weaknesses. This thesis aims to be pragmatic when evaluating the current MOQA theory, the advancements set forth in the following work and the benefits of MOQA when compared to similar systems. Succinctly, this work’s significant expansion of the MOQA theory is accompanied by a realistic assessment of MOQA’s accomplishments and a serious deliberation of the opportunities available to MOQA in the future.

Legal regulation of the software "patentable subject matter" requirement in the US and in Europe: The need for certainty, predictability and uniformity

This thesis critically investigates the divergent international approaches to the legal regulation of the patentability of computer software inventions, with a view to identifying the reforms necessary for a certain, predictable and uniform inter-jurisdictional system of protection. Through a critical analysis of the traditional and contemporary US and European regulatory frameworks of protection for computer software inventions, this thesis demonstrates the confusion and legal uncertainty resulting from ill-defined patent laws and inconsistent patent practices as to the scope of the “patentable subject matter” requirement, further compounded by substantial flaws in the structural configuration of the decision-making procedures within which the patent systems operate. This damaging combination prevents the operation of an accessible and effective Intellectual Property (IP) legal framework of protection for computer software inventions, capable of securing adequate economic returns for inventors whilst preserving the necessary scope for innovation and competition in the field, to the ultimate benefit of society. In exploring the substantive and structural deficiencies in the European and US regulatory frameworks, this thesis develops to ultimately highlight that the best approach to the reform of the legal regulation of software patentability is two-tiered. It demonstrates that any reform to achieve international legal harmony first requires the legislature to individually clarify (Europe) or restate (US) the long-standing inadequate rules governing the scope of software “patentable subject matter”, together with the reorganisation of the unworkable structural configuration of the decision-making procedures. Informed by the critical analysis of the evolution of the “patentable subject matter” requirement for computer software in the US, this thesis particularly considers the potential of the reforms of the European patent system currently underway, to bring about certainty, predictability and uniformity in the legal treatment of computer software inventions.

Assessment of dietary background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs particularly taking into account additional exposure due to the 2008 Irish dioxin food contamination incident

Irish monitoring data on PCDD/Fs, DL-PCBs and Marker PCBs were collated and combined with Irish Adult Food Consumption Data, to estimate dietary background exposure of Irish adults to dioxins and PCBs. Furthermore, all available information on the 2008 Irish pork dioxin food contamination incident was collated and analysed with a view to evaluate any potential impact the incident may have had on general dioxin and PCB background exposure levels estimated for the adult population in Ireland. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to dioxins Total WHO TEQ (2005) (PCDD/Fs & DLPCBs) from environmental background contamination, was estimated at 0.3 pg/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 1 pg/kg bw/d. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to the sum of 6 Marker PCBs from environmental background contamination ubiquitous in the environment was estimated at 1.6 ng/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 6.8 ng/kg bw/d. Dietary background exposure estimates for both dioxins and PCBs indicate that the Irish adult population has exposures below the European average, a finding which is also supported by the levels detected in breast milk of Irish mothers. Exposure levels are below health based guidance values and/or Body Burdens associated with the TWI (for dioxins) or associated with a NOAEL (for PCBs). Given the current toxicological knowledge, based on biomarker data and estimated dietary exposure, general background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs is of no human health concern. In 2008, a porcine fat sample taken as part of the national residues monitoring programme led to the detection of a major feed contamination incidence in the Republic of Ireland. The source of the contamination was traced back to the use of contaminated oil in a direct-drying feed operation system. Congener profiles in animal fat and feed samples showed a high level of consistency and pinpointed the likely source of fuel contamination to be a highly chlorinated commercial PCB mixture. To estimate additional exposure to dioxins and PCBs due to the contamination of pig and cattle herds, collection and a systematic review of all data associated with the contamination incident was conducted. A model was devised that took into account the proportion of contaminated product reaching the final consumer during the 90 day contamination incident window. For a 90 day period, the total additional exposure to Total TEQ (PCDD/F &DL-PCB) WHO (2005) amounted to 407 pg/kg bw/90d at the 95th percentile and 1911 pg/kg bw/90d at the 99th percentile. Exposure estimates derived for both dioxins and PCBs showed that the Body Burden of the general population remained largely unaffected by the contamination incident and approximately 10 % of the adult population in Ireland was exposed to elevated levels of dioxins and PCBs. Whilst people in this 10 % cohort experienced quite a significant additional load to the existing body burden, the estimated exposure values do not indicate approximation of body burdens associated with adverse health effects, based on current knowledge. The exposure period was also limited in time to approximately 3 months, following the FSAI recall of contaminated meat immediately on detection of the contamination. A follow up breast milk study on Irish first time mothers conducted in 2009/2010 did not show any increase in concentrations compared to the study conducted in 2002. The latter supports the conclusion that the majority of the Irish adult population was not affected by the contamination incident.