The status of Ireland's climate, 2012

Ireland’s climate is changing. This is consistent with regional and global trends which display rapid changes in many aspects of climate over the last century and the first decade of this century. The availability of high-quality climate observations is a critical starting point from which an understanding of past and emerging trends in the current climate can be developed. Such observations are vital for detecting change and providing the information needed to help manage and plan for the future in a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Observations are also essential to help build robust projections of future climate, which can in turn inform policy formulation for appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. Such measures should help us limit the negative socio-economic impacts and position us to take advantages of opportunities offered by a changing climate. This report brings together observational information and data for over 40 climate variables and highlights changes and trends in aspects of Irish climate across the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The observations presented in this report contribute to the formulation of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Sectoral impacts on the diversity of carabid beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) and their associated ecosystem service of biocontrol

This thesis aimed to provide an understanding of how human-induced changes in the economic sectors of agriculture and transport affect carabid diversity, potential carabidmediated biocontrol and predator-pest interactions. The research involved both observational and manipulative laboratory and field-based studies. Observational research consisted of two large-scale investigations of (1) the impact of Miscanthus and oilseed rape production (n=45) and (2) the impact of horticultural and ecological based landscaping of roadside verges (n=64). This research is the first record of carabid diversity, potential biocontrol and community assemblage with respect to bioenergy crop production and roadside landscaping in an Irish context and it is also an important addition to the limited knowledge of carabid populations in these ecosystems internationally. Manipulative work involved the examination of the role predator identity, diversity and biomass play in the suppression of pollen beetle larvae (an economically damaging insect pest of oilseed rape in Europe), using a novel experimental design called ‘simplex’. To complement this research, an additional field study on the impact of low and high oilseed rape pesticide management on carabid species richness and abundance, and crop yield, was also conducted. This research is a great contribution to the existing understanding of what constitutes the important components of predator biodiversity and expands the knowledge of the usefulness of carabid predators in the context of pollen beetle larvae control. In particular, the work shows that the abundance or biomass of beetles has an effect that is far larger than the effect of diversity on the capacity of beetles to consume prey. In turn, the field study showed that pesticide applications had little impact on yield, or carabid richness, but that carabid abundance/biomass declined drastically. The work provides compelling evidence that management practices erode the useful components of biodiversity that are essential for the delivery of biocontrol services.

Comparing impacts of new cropping systems on biodiversity in traditional rural China

This study selected six geographically-similar villages with traditional and alternative cultivation methods (two groups of three, one traditional and two alternatives) in two counties of Henan Province, China—a representative area of the Huang-huai-hai Plain representing traditional rural China. Soil heavy metal concentrations, floral and faunal biodiversity, and socio-economic data were recorded. Heavy metal concentrations of surface soils from three sites in each village were analysed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS, chromium, nickel, copper, cadmium, and lead) and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS, zinc). The floral biodiversity of four land-use types was recorded following the Braun-Blanquet coverage-abundance method using 0.5×0.5m quadrats. The faunal biodiversity of two representative farmland plots was recorded using 0.3×0.3m quadrats at four 0.1m layers. The socio-economic data were recorded through face-to-face interviews of one hundred randomly selected households at each village. Results demonstrate different cultivation methods lead to different impact on above variables. Traditional cultivation led to lower heavy metal concentrations; both alternative managements were associated with massive agrochemical input causing heavy metal pollution in farmlands. Floral distribution was significantly affected by village factors. Diverse cultivation supported high floral biodiversity through multi-scale heterogeneous landscapes containing niches and habitats. Faunal distribution was also significantly affected by village factor nested within soil depth. Different faunal groups responded differently, with Acari being taxonomically diverse and Collembola high in densities. Increase in manual labour and crop number in villages using alternative cultivation may positively affect biodiversity. The results point to the conservation potential of diverse cultivation methods in traditional rural China and other regions under social and political reforms, where traditional agriculture is changing to unified, large-scale mechanized agriculture. This study serves as a baseline for conservation in small-holding agricultural areas of China, and points to the necessity of further studies at larger and longer scales.

A recessionary debate: who suffered more? A study of sectoral well-being and economic insecurity in Ireland

The aim of this thesis is to identify the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity for public and private sector workers in Ireland using the European Social Survey 2010-2012. Life satisfaction and job satisfaction are the indicators used to measure subjective well-being. Economic insecurity is approximated by regional unemployment rates and self-perceived job insecurity. Potential sample selection bias and endogeneity bias are accounted for. It is traditionally believed that public sector workers are relatively more protected against insecurity due to very institution of public sector employment. The institution of public sector employment is made up of stricter dismissal practices (Luechinger et al., 2010a) and less volatile employment (Freeman, 1987) where workers are subsequently less likely to be affected by business cycle downturns (Clark and Postal-Vinay, 2009). It is found in the literature that economic insecurity depresses the well-being of public sector workers to a lesser degree than private sector workers (Luechinger et al., 2010a; Artz and Kaya, 2014). These studies provide the rationale for this thesis in testing for similar relationships in an Irish context. Sample selection bias arises when a selection into a particular category is not random (Heckman, 1979). An example of this is non-random selection into public sector employment based on personal characteristics (Heckman, 1979; Luechinger et al., 2010b). If selection into public sector employment is not corrected for this can lead to biased and inconsistent estimators (Gujarati, 2009). Selection bias of public sector employment is corrected for by using a standard Two-Step Heckman Probit OLS estimation method. Following Luechinger et al. (2010b), the propensity for individuals to select into public sector employment is estimated by a binomial probit model with the inclusion of the additional regressor Irish citizenship. Job satisfaction is then estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with the inclusion of a sample correction term similar as is done in Clark (1997). Endogeneity is where an independent variable included in the model is determined within in the context of the model (Chenhall and Moers, 2007). The econometric definition states that an endogenous independent variable is one that is correlated with the error term (Wooldridge, 2010). Endogeneity is expected to be present due to a simultaneous relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction whereby both variables are jointly determined (Theodossiou and Vasileiou, 2007). Simultaneity, as an instigator of endogeneity, is corrected for using Instrumental Variables (IV) techniques. Limited Information Methods and Full Information Methods of estimation of simultaneous equations models are assed and compared. The general results show that job insecurity depresses the subjective well-being of all workers in both the public and private sectors in Ireland. The magnitude of this effect differs among sectoral workers. The subjective well-being of private sector workers is more adversely affected by job insecurity than the subjective well-being of public sector workers. This is observed in basic ordered probit estimations of both a life satisfaction equation and a job satisfaction equation. The marginal effects from the ordered probit estimation of a basic job satisfaction equation show that as job insecurity increases the probability of reporting a 9 on a 10-point job satisfaction scale significantly decreases by 3.4% for the whole sample of workers, 2.8% for public sector workers and 4.0% for private sector workers. Artz and Kaya (2014) explain that as a result of many austerity policies implemented to reduce government expenditure during the economic recession, workers in the public sector may for the first time face worsening perceptions of job security which can have significant implications for their well-being (Artz and Kaya, 2014). This can be observed in the marginal effects where job insecurity negatively impacts the well-being of public sector workers in Ireland. However, in accordance with Luechinger et al. (2010a) the results show that private sector workers are more adversely impacted by economic insecurity than public sector workers. This suggests that in a time of high economic volatility, the institution of public sector employment held and was able to protect workers against some of the well-being consequences of rising insecurity. In estimating the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity advanced econometric issues arise. The results show that when selection bias is corrected for, any statistically significant relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction disappears for public sector workers. Additionally, in order to correct for endogeneity bias the simultaneous equations model for job satisfaction and job insecurity is estimated by Limited Information and Full Information Methods. The results from two different estimators classified as Limited Information Methods support the general findings of this research. Moreover, the magnitude of the endogeneity-corrected estimates are twice as large as those not corrected for endogeneity bias which is similarly found in Geishecker (2010, 2012). As part of the analysis into the effect of economic insecurity on subjective well-being, the effects of other socioeconomic variables and work-related variables are examined for public and private sector workers in Ireland.