Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.

Hardware reduction in digital delta-sigma modulators via error masking - part I: MASH DDSM

Two classes of techniques have been developed to whiten the quantization noise in digital delta-sigma modulators (DDSMs): deterministic and stochastic. In this two-part paper, a design methodology for reduced-complexity DDSMs is presented. The design methodology is based on error masking. Rules for selecting the word lengths of the stages in multistage architectures are presented. We show that the hardware requirement can be reduced by up to 20% compared with a conventional design, without sacrificing performance. Simulation and experimental results confirm theoretical predictions. Part I addresses MultistAge noise SHaping (MASH) DDSMs; Part II focuses on single-quantizer DDSMs..

Shear effects on the properties and separation characteristics of whey protein precipitates

Selective isoelectric whey protein precipitation and aggregation is carried out at laboratory scale in a standard configuration batch agitation vessel. Geometric scale-up of this operation is implemented on the basis of constant impeller power input per unit volume and subsequent clarification is achieved by high speed disc-stack centrifugation. Particle size and fractal geometry are important in achieving efficient separation while aggregates need to be strong enough to resist the more extreme levels of shear that are encountered during processing, for example through pumps, valves and at the centrifuge inlet zone. This study investigates how impeller agitation intensity and ageing time affect aggregate size, strength, fractal dimension and hindered settling rate at laboratory scale in order to determine conditions conducive for improved separation. Particle strength is measured by observing the effects of subjecting aggregates to moderate and high levels of process shear in a capillary rig and through a partially open ball-valve respectively. The protein precipitate yield is also investigated with respect to ageing time and impeller agitation intensity. A pilot scale study is undertaken to investigate scale-up and how agitation vessel shear affects centrifugal separation efficiency. Laboratory scale studies show that precipitates subject to higher impeller shear-rates during the addition of the precipitation agent are smaller but more compact than those subject to lower impeller agitation and are better able to resist turbulent breakage. They are thus more likely to provide a better feed for more efficient centrifugal separation. Protein precipitation yield improves significantly with ageing, and 50 minutes of ageing is required to obtain a 70 - 80% yield of α-lactalbumin. Geometric scale-up of the agitation vessel at constant power per unit volume results in aggregates of broadly similar size exhibiting similar trends but with some differences due to the absence of dynamic similarity due to longer circulation time and higher tip speed in the larger vessel. Disc stack centrifuge clarification efficiency curves show aggregates formed at higher shear-rates separate more efficiently, in accordance with laboratory scale projections. Exposure of aggregates to highly turbulent conditions, even for short exposure times, can lead to a large reduction in particle size. Thus, improving separation efficiencies can be achieved by the identification of high shear zones in a centrifugal process and the subsequent elimination or amelioration of such.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.