Towards a model for exploring the relationship between managerial decision problems and decision support opportunities

The organisational decision making environment is complex, and decision makers must deal with uncertainty and ambiguity on a continuous basis. Managing and handling decision problems and implementing a solution, requires an understanding of the complexity of the decision domain to the point where the problem and its complexity, as well as the requirements for supporting decision makers, can be described. Research in the Decision Support Systems domain has been extensive over the last thirty years with an emphasis on the development of further technology and better applications on the one hand, and on the other hand, a social approach focusing on understanding what decision making is about and how developers and users should interact. This research project considers a combined approach that endeavours to understand the thinking behind managers’ decision making, as well as their informational and decisional guidance and decision support requirements. This research utilises a cognitive framework, developed in 1985 by Humphreys and Berkeley that juxtaposes the mental processes and ideas of decision problem definition and problem solution that are developed in tandem through cognitive refinement of the problem, based on the analysis and judgement of the decision maker. The framework facilitates the separation of what is essentially a continuous process, into five distinct levels of abstraction of manager’s thinking, and suggests a structure for the underlying cognitive activities. Alter (2004) argues that decision support provides a richer basis than decision support systems, in both practice and research. The constituent literature on decision support, especially in regard to modern high profile systems, including Business Intelligence and Business analytics, can give the impression that all ‘smart’ organisations utilise decision support and data analytics capabilities for all of their key decision making activities. However this empirical investigation indicates a very different reality.

A support system for mentors of novice entrepreneurs

In this study we present online software to rapidly assess the impact of mentoring techniques on a novice entrepreneur. We have built a prototype that collects data from team members in less than five minutes and that automatically returns a diagnostic analysis to the mentor. Between 2012 and 2015 we have tested three versions of our prototype with longitudinal analyses of teams attending startup weekend competitions, to confirm that our prototype supports mentors with few and yet relevant information. The results of our studies open several avenues of research regarding rapid diagnostic of project teams, whereas, from a practical point of view, our prototype entirely done with Google Docs can be easily used by anyone interested in entrepreneurship education. Keywords: Entrepreneurship education, effectuation, mentoring, decision support, design science.

Uncertainty visualization in 3D scalar data

One problem in most three-dimensional (3D) scalar data visualization techniques is that they often overlook to depict uncertainty that comes with the 3D scalar data and thus fail to faithfully present the 3D scalar data and have risks which may mislead users’ interpretations, conclusions or even decisions. Therefore this thesis focuses on the study of uncertainty visualization in 3D scalar data and we seek to create better uncertainty visualization techniques, as well as to find out the advantages/disadvantages of those state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques. To do this, we address three specific hypotheses: (1) the proposed Texture uncertainty visualization technique enables users to better identify scalar/error data, and provides reduced visual overload and more appropriate brightness than four state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques, as demonstrated using a perceptual effectiveness user study. (2) The proposed Linked Views and Interactive Specification (LVIS) uncertainty visualization technique enables users to better search max/min scalar and error data than four state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques, as demonstrated using a perceptual effectiveness user study. (3) The proposed Probabilistic Query uncertainty visualization technique, in comparison to traditional Direct Volume Rendering (DVR) methods, enables radiologists/physicians to better identify possible alternative renderings relevant to a diagnosis and the classification probabilities associated to the materials appeared on these renderings; this leads to improved decision support for diagnosis, as demonstrated in the domain of medical imaging. For each hypothesis, we test it by following/implementing a unified framework that consists of three main steps: the first main step is uncertainty data modeling, which clearly defines and generates certainty types of uncertainty associated to given 3D scalar data. The second main step is uncertainty visualization, which transforms the 3D scalar data and their associated uncertainty generated from the first main step into two-dimensional (2D) images for insight, interpretation or communication. The third main step is evaluation, which transforms the 2D images generated from the second main step into quantitative scores according to specific user tasks, and statistically analyzes the scores. As a result, the quality of each uncertainty visualization technique is determined.

Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Biased group decision-making and the effect of computer-mediated communication: separating the effects of anonymity, voting and blind picking

The influence of communication technology on group decision-making has been examined in many studies. But the findings are inconsistent. Some studies showed a positive effect on decision quality, other studies have shown that communication technology makes the decision even worse. One possible explanation for these different findings could be the use of different Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) in these studies, with some GDSS better fitting to the given task than others and with different sets of functions. This paper outlines an approach with an information system solely designed to examine the effect of (1) anonymity, (2) voting and (3) blind picking on decision quality, discussion quality and perceived quality of information.

Investigating key decision problems to optimize the operation and maintenance strategy of offshore wind farms

This paper investigates three decision problems with potential to optimize operation and maintenance and logistics strategies for offshore wind farms: the timing of pre-determined jack-up vessel campaigns; selection of crew transfer vessel fleet; and timing of annual services. These problems are compared both in terms of potential cost reduction and the stochastic variability and associated uncertainty of the outcome. Pre-determined jack-up vessel campaigns appear to have a high cost reduction potential but also a higher stochastic variability than the other decision problems. The paper also demonstrates the benefits and difficulties of considering problems together rather than solving them in isolation.

Context-aware real-time assistant architecture for pervasive healthcare

The aging population in many countries brings into focus rising healthcare costs and pressure on conventional healthcare services. Pervasive healthcare has emerged as a viable solution capable of providing a technology-driven approach to alleviate such problems by allowing healthcare to move from the hospital-centred care to self-care, mobile care, and at-home care. The state-of-the-art studies in this field, however, lack a systematic approach for providing comprehensive pervasive healthcare solutions from data collection to data interpretation and from data analysis to data delivery. In this thesis we introduce a Context-aware Real-time Assistant (CARA) architecture that integrates novel approaches with state-of-the-art technology solutions to provide a full-scale pervasive healthcare solution with the emphasis on context awareness to help maintaining the well-being of elderly people. CARA collects information about and around the individual in a home environment, and enables accurately recognition and continuously monitoring activities of daily living. It employs an innovative reasoning engine to provide accurate real-time interpretation of the context and current situation assessment. Being mindful of the use of the system for sensitive personal applications, CARA includes several mechanisms to make the sophisticated intelligent components as transparent and accountable as possible, it also includes a novel cloud-based component for more effective data analysis. To deliver the automated real-time services, CARA supports interactive video and medical sensor based remote consultation. Our proposal has been validated in three application domains that are rich in pervasive contexts and real-time scenarios: (i) Mobile-based Activity Recognition, (ii) Intelligent Healthcare Decision Support Systems and (iii) Home-based Remote Monitoring Systems.

The application of computer modelling to develop a methodology for ‘existing building’ upgrades to move towards carbon-neutral buildings

The retrofitting of existing buildings for decreased energy usage, through increased energy efficiency and for minimum carbon dioxide emissions throughout their remaining lifetime is a major area of research. This research area requires development to provide building professionals with more efficient building retrofit solution determination tools. The overarching objective of this research is to develop a tool for this purpose through the implementation of a prescribed methodology. This has been achieved in three distinct steps. Firstly, the concept of using the degree-days modelling method as an adequate means of basing retrofit decision upon was analysed and the results illustrated that the concept had merit. Secondly, the concept of combining the degree-days modelling method and the Genetic Algorithms optimisation method is investigated as a method of determining optimal thermal energy retrofit solutions. Thirdly, the combination of the degree-days modelling method and the Genetic Algorithms optimisation method were packaged into a building retrofit decision-support tool and named BRaSS (Building Retrofit Support Software). The results demonstrate clearly that, fundamental building information, simplified occupancy profiles and weather data used in a static simulation modelling method is a sufficient and adequate means to base retrofitting decisions upon. The results also show that basing retrofit decisions upon energy analysis results are the best means to guide a retrofit project and also to achieve results which are optimum for a particular building. The results also indicate that the building retrofit decision-support tool, BRaSS, is an effective method to determine optimum thermal energy retrofit solutions.