Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Exploring the cardiovascular disease continuum: blood pressure and target organ damage

Introduction The objectives of this thesis are to: (1) examine how ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) refines office blood pressure (BP) measurement; (2) determine if absolute ambulatory BP or dipping status is better associated with target organ damage (TOD); (3) explore the association of isolated nocturnal hypertension (INH) with TOD; and (4) investigate the association of night-time BP with ultrasound markers of cardiovascular damage. Methods Data from the Mitchelstown Cohort Study was analysed to deliver objectives 1 and 2. Objective 3 was addressed by a systematic review and analysis of data from the Mitchelstown Study. A sample of participants from the Mitchelstown Study underwent an echocardiogram for speckle tracking analysis and carotid ultrasound to achieve objective 4. Results ABPM reclassifies hypertension status in approximately a quarter of individuals, with white coat and masked hypertension prevalence rates of 11% and 13% respectively. Night-time systolic BP is better associated with TOD than daytime systolic BP and dipping level. In multi-variable models the odds ratio (OR) for LVH was 1.4 (95% CI 1.1 -1.8) and for albumin:creatinine ratio ≥ 1.1 mg/mmol was 1.5 (95% CI 1.2 – 1.8) for each 10 mmHg rise in night-time systolic BP. The evidence for the association of INH with TOD is inconclusive. Night-time systolic BP is significantly associated with global longitudinal strain (GLS) (beta coefficient 0.85 for every 10 mmHg rise, 95% CI 0.3 – 1.4) and carotid plaques (OR 1.9 for every 10 mmHg rise, 95% CI 1.1 – 3.2) in univariable analysis. The findings persist for GLS in sex and age adjusted models but not in multivariable models. Discussion Hypertension cannot be effectively managed without using ABPM. Night-time systolic BP is better associated with TOD than daytime systolic BP and dipping level, and therefore, may be a better therapeutic target in future studies.