Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency.

A knowledge management system to optimise comfort throughout the building life-cycle

Comfort is, in essence, satisfaction with the environment, and with respect to the indoor environment it is primarily satisfaction with the thermal conditions and air quality. Improving comfort has social, health and economic benefits, and is more financially significant than any other building cost. Despite this, comfort is not strictly managed throughout the building lifecycle. This is mainly due to the lack of an appropriate system to adequately manage comfort knowledge through the construction process into operation. Previous proposals to improve knowledge management have not been successfully adopted by the construction industry. To address this, the BabySteps approach was devised. BabySteps is an approach, proposed by this research, which states that for an innovation to be adopted into the industry it must be implementable through a number of small changes. This research proposes that improving the management of comfort knowledge will improve comfort. ComMet is a new methodology proposed by this research that manages comfort knowledge. It enables comfort knowledge to be captured, stored and accessed throughout the building life-cycle and so allowing it to be re-used in future stages of the building project and in future projects. It does this using the following: Comfort Performances – These are simplified numerical representations of the comfort of the indoor environment. Comfort Performances quantify the comfort at each stage of the building life-cycle using standard comfort metrics. Comfort Ratings - These are a means of classifying the comfort conditions of the indoor environment according to an appropriate standard. Comfort Ratings are generated by comparing different Comfort Performances. Comfort Ratings provide additional information relating to the comfort conditions of the indoor environment, which is not readily determined from the individual Comfort Performances. Comfort History – This is a continuous descriptive record of the comfort throughout the project, with a focus on documenting the items and activities, proposed and implemented, which could potentially affect comfort. Each aspect of the Comfort History is linked to the relevant comfort entity it references. These three components create a comprehensive record of the comfort throughout the building lifecycle. They are then stored and made available in a common format in a central location which allows them to be re-used ad infinitum. The LCMS System was developed to implement the ComMet methodology. It uses current and emerging technologies to capture, store and allow easy access to comfort knowledge as specified by ComMet. LCMS is an IT system that is a combination of the following six components: Building Standards; Modelling & Simulation; Physical Measurement through the specially developed Egg-Whisk (Wireless Sensor) Network; Data Manipulation; Information Recording; Knowledge Storage and Access.Results from a test case application of the LCMS system - an existing office room at a research facility - highlighted that while some aspects of comfort were being maintained, the building’s environment was not in compliance with the acceptable levels as stipulated by the relevant building standards. The implementation of ComMet, through LCMS, demonstrates how comfort, typically only considered during early design, can be measured and managed appropriately through systematic application of the methodology as means of ensuring a healthy internal environment in the building.

Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.

Guiding stakeholders to participate in Marine Strategy Framework implementation

Large marine areas and regional seas present a challenge in terms of management. They are often bordered by numerous maritime jurisdictions; with multi-use and multi-sector environments; involving varying governance arrangements; and generation of sufficient levels of data to best inform decision-makers. Marine management at the regional scale involves a range of mechanisms and approaches to ensure all relevant stakeholders have an opportunity to engage in the process; and these approaches can differ in their legal and regulatory conditions. At present, no such comparable structures exist at the transnational level for the ecosystem-based management of the Celtic Sea. Against this backdrop, a participative process, involving representatives from differing sectors of activity in the Celtic Sea spanning four Member States, was established for the purpose of identifying realistic and meaningful management principles in line with the goals of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Analysis of institutional arrangements and common pool resources governance: the case of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Although Common Pool Resources (CPRs) make up a significant share of total income for rural households in Ethiopia and elsewhere in developing world, limited access to these resources and environmental degradation threaten local livelihoods. As a result, the issues of management, governance of CPRs and how to prevent their over-exploitation are of great importance for development policy. This study examines the current state and dynamics of CPRs and overall resource governance system of the Lake Tana sub-basin. This research employed the modified form of Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The framework integrates the concept of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) and Interactive Governance (IG) perspectives where social actors, institutions, the politico-economic context, discourses and ecological features across governance and government levels were considered. It has been observed that overexploitation, degradation and encroachment of CPRs have increased dramatically and this threatens the sustainability of Lake Tana ecosystem. The stakeholder analysis result reveals that there are multiple stakeholders with diverse interest in and power over CPRs. The analysis of institutional arrangements reveals that the existing formal rules and regulations governing access to and control over CPRs could not be implemented and were not effective to legally bind and govern CPR user’s behavior at the operational level. The study also shows that a top-down and non-participatory policy formulation, law and decision making process overlooks the local contexts (local knowledge and informal institutions). The outcomes of examining the participation of local resource users, as an alternative to a centralized, command-and-control, and hierarchical approach to resource management and governance, have called for a fundamental shift in CPR use, management and governance to facilitate the participation of stakeholders in decision making. Therefore, establishing a multi-level stakeholder governance system as an institutional structure and process is necessary to sustain stakeholder participation in decision-making regarding CPR use, management and governance.

Building effectiveness communication ratios (BECs): an integrated ‘life-cycle’ methodology for mitigating energy-use in buildings

Current building regulations are generally prescriptive in nature. It is widely accepted in Europe that this form of building regulation is stifling technological innovation and leading to inadequate energy efficiency in the building stock. This has increased the motivation to move design practices towards a more ‘performance-based’ model in order to mitigate inflated levels of energy-use consumed by the building stock. A performance based model assesses the interaction of all building elements and the resulting impact on holistic building energy-use. However, this is a nebulous task due to building energy-use being affected by a myriad of heterogeneous agents. Accordingly, it is imperative that appropriate methods, tools and technologies are employed for energy prediction, measurement and evaluation throughout the project’s life cycle. This research also considers that it is imperative that the data is universally accessible by all stakeholders. The use of a centrally based product model for exchange of building information is explored. This research describes the development and implementation of a new building energy-use performance assessment methodology. Termed the Building Effectiveness Communications ratios (BECs) methodology, this performance-based framework is capable of translating complex definitions of sustainability for energy efficiency and depicting universally understandable views at all stage of the Building Life Cycle (BLC) to the project’s stakeholders. The enabling yardsticks of building energy-use performance, termed Ir and Pr, provide continuous design and operations feedback in order to aid the building’s decision makers. Utilised effectively, the methodology is capable of delivering quality assurance throughout the BLC by providing project teams with quantitative measurement of energy efficiency. Armed with these superior enabling tools for project stakeholder communication, it is envisaged that project teams will be better placed to augment a knowledge base and generate more efficient additions to the building stock.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Participation by place-based community organisations in local development: case studies from East Cork

The past two decades have witnessed concerted efforts by theorists and policy-makers to place civil society at the centre of social, economic and environmental development processes. To this end, policies grounded in a Third Way approach have sought to forge stronger linkages between the state and voluntary community-based organisations. Concepts such as active citizenship, social capital, partnership and sustainability have underpinned this political philosophy, which reflects a movement in development theory and political science away from notions of state-led development and unfettered neo-liberalism. In the Irish context, a series of initiatives have given expression to this new policy agenda, the foremost amongst them the publication of a White Paper in 2000. New local governance structures and development schemes have multiplied since the early 1990s, while the physical planning system has also been modified. All this has taken place against the backdrop of unprecedented economic development and social change precipitated by the ‘Celtic Tiger’.This thesis examines the interaction between community organisations, state institutions and other actors in development processes in East Cork. It focuses upon place-based community organisations, who seek to represent the interests of their particular localities. A case study approach is employed to explore the realpolitik of local development and to gauge the extent to which grassroots community organisations wield influence in determining the development of their communities. The study concludes that the transfer of decision-making power to community organisations has been more illusory than real and that, in practical terms, such groups remain marginal in the circuits of power. However, the situation of community organisations operating in different geographical locales cannot be reduced to an overarching theoretical logic. The case studies show that the modus operandi of community groups varies considerably and can be influenced by specific local geographies, events and personalities.