Developing a health and wellbeing platform in a living lab setting: An action design research study

The world’s population is rapidly aging, which affects healthcare budgets, resources, pensions and social security systems. Although most older adults prefer to live independently in their own home as long as possible, smart living solutions to support elderly people at home did not reach mass adoption, yet. To support people age-in-place a Living Lab is established in one of the metropolitan areas in the Netherlands. The main goal of the Living Lab is to develop an online health and wellbeing platform that matches service providers, caretakers and users and to implement that platform in one particular city district. In this paper we describe the narrative of the action design research process that will give researchers insight how to deal with complex multi-stakeholder design projects as well as cooperation issues to develop an artifact in a real-life setting.

Market-oriented new product development of health promoting foods for the ageing population

Major factors influencing food development and food marketing strategies in global market places at present can be attributable to the changing age structure of the population. The significant shifts in global age structure will inevitably lead to the number of people aged 60 reaching an all-time high of one billion by the year 2020. The rapidly growing population of ageing people globally represents a large, neglected and very much under-developed category within the Food Industry. The primary focus of this study was the integration of knowledge creation techniques at early NPD stages, for the development of market-oriented new health promoting foods for the ageing population. The methodology of this study was centered on an exploratory sequential mixed methods strategy. Stage one of the study involved in-depth semi-structured interviews with 16 Stakeholders to facilitate the need identification stage of the NPD process. The main outputs identified were the need for: the fortification of foods for a preventative nutrition approach, the development of foods that targeted age-related conditions such as cognitive, heart, gut and bone health, the integration of ageing compensatory packaging adaptations and the creation of marketing messages with an active lifestyle message. Stage two consisted of a market-oriented computer assisted NPD technique, a user centered design interaction (UCD) to integrate consumers as co-creators throughout the idea generation stage of the NPD process. The most important product attributes identified in this stage included: products targeted at brain and cognitive health, liquid based beverages, easy to use packaging with environmentally friendly elements, simplistic marketing with a clear focus on health not age and realistic health claims constructed with consumer friendly terminology. Finally, Stage three used an abbreviated means-end chain (MEC) analysis to complete the concept development stage of the NPD process. This stage identified commercial information that could be used by food firms for the development of positioning and communication strategies. Equally, the information generated could be of high strategic importance to governments, policy makers, health professionals and medical professionals. The values and goals listed in this stage included: better overall health, active lifestyle, optimum nutrition and wellbeing feelings. Overall, this research illustrated that knowledge creation techniques can assist firms in the development of market-oriented health promoting foods for the ageing population.

Scaling up strategies of the chronic respiratory disease programme of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (Action Plan B3: Area 5)

Action Plan B3 of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) focuses on the integrated care of chronic diseases. Area 5 (Care Pathways) was initiated using chronic respiratory diseases as a model. The chronic respiratory disease action plan includes (1) AIRWAYS integrated care pathways (ICPs), (2) the joint initiative between the Reference site MACVIA-LR (Contre les MAladies Chroniques pour un VIeillissement Actif) and ARIA (Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma), (3) Commitments for Action to the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing and the AIRWAYS ICPs network. It is deployed in collaboration with the World Health Organization Global Alliance against Chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD). The European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing has proposed a 5-step framework for developing an individual scaling up strategy: (1) what to scale up: (1-a) databases of good practices, (1-b) assessment of viability of the scaling up of good practices, (1-c) classification of good practices for local replication and (2) how to scale up: (2-a) facilitating partnerships for scaling up, (2-b) implementation of key success factors and lessons learnt, including emerging technologies for individualised and predictive medicine. This strategy has already been applied to the chronic respiratory disease action plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing.

Shear effects on the properties and separation characteristics of whey protein precipitates

Selective isoelectric whey protein precipitation and aggregation is carried out at laboratory scale in a standard configuration batch agitation vessel. Geometric scale-up of this operation is implemented on the basis of constant impeller power input per unit volume and subsequent clarification is achieved by high speed disc-stack centrifugation. Particle size and fractal geometry are important in achieving efficient separation while aggregates need to be strong enough to resist the more extreme levels of shear that are encountered during processing, for example through pumps, valves and at the centrifuge inlet zone. This study investigates how impeller agitation intensity and ageing time affect aggregate size, strength, fractal dimension and hindered settling rate at laboratory scale in order to determine conditions conducive for improved separation. Particle strength is measured by observing the effects of subjecting aggregates to moderate and high levels of process shear in a capillary rig and through a partially open ball-valve respectively. The protein precipitate yield is also investigated with respect to ageing time and impeller agitation intensity. A pilot scale study is undertaken to investigate scale-up and how agitation vessel shear affects centrifugal separation efficiency. Laboratory scale studies show that precipitates subject to higher impeller shear-rates during the addition of the precipitation agent are smaller but more compact than those subject to lower impeller agitation and are better able to resist turbulent breakage. They are thus more likely to provide a better feed for more efficient centrifugal separation. Protein precipitation yield improves significantly with ageing, and 50 minutes of ageing is required to obtain a 70 - 80% yield of α-lactalbumin. Geometric scale-up of the agitation vessel at constant power per unit volume results in aggregates of broadly similar size exhibiting similar trends but with some differences due to the absence of dynamic similarity due to longer circulation time and higher tip speed in the larger vessel. Disc stack centrifuge clarification efficiency curves show aggregates formed at higher shear-rates separate more efficiently, in accordance with laboratory scale projections. Exposure of aggregates to highly turbulent conditions, even for short exposure times, can lead to a large reduction in particle size. Thus, improving separation efficiencies can be achieved by the identification of high shear zones in a centrifugal process and the subsequent elimination or amelioration of such.

Childhood obesity in Ireland: recent trends and modifiable determinants

Background: Childhood obesity is a global epidemic posing a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of children. To reverse this epidemic, it is essential that we gain a deeper understanding of the complex array of driving factors at an individual, family and wider ecological level. Using a social-ecological framework, this thesis investigates the direction, magnitude and contribution of risk factors for childhood overweight and obesity at multiple levels of influence, with a particular focus on diet and physical activity. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to describe recent trends (from 2002-2012) in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Irish school children from the Republic of Ireland. Two datasets (Cork Children’s Lifestyle [CCLaS] Study and the Growing Up in Ireland [GUI] Study) were used to explore determinants of childhood overweight and obesity. Individual lifestyle factors examined were diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour. The determinants of physical activity were also explored. Family factors examined were parental weight status and household socio-economic status. The impact of food access in the local area on diet quality and body mass index (BMI) was investigated as an environmental level risk factor. Results: Between 2002 and 2012, the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity in Ireland remained stable. There was some evidence to suggest that childhood obesity rates may have decreased slightly though one in four Irish children remained either overweight or obese. In the CCLaS study, overweight and obese children consumed more unhealthy foods than normal weight children. A diet quality score was constructed based on a previously validated adult diet score. Each one unit increase in diet quality was significantly associated with a decreased risk of childhood overweight and obesity. Individual level factors (including gender, being a member of a sports team, weight status) were more strongly associated with physical activity levels than family or environmental factors. Overweight and obese children were more sedentary and less active than normal weight children. There was a dose response relationship between time spent at moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and the risk of childhood obesity independent of sedentary time. In contrast, total sedentary time was not associated with the risk of childhood obesity independent of MVPA though screen time was associated with childhood overweight and obesity. In the GUI Study, only one in five children had 2 normal weight parents (or one normal weight parent in the case of single parent families). Having overweight and obese parents was a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity regardless of socio-economic characteristics of the household. Family income was not associated with the odds of childhood obesity but social class and parental education were important risk factors for childhood obesity. Access to food stores in the local environment did not impact dietary quality or the BMI of Irish children. However, there was some evidence to suggest that the economic resources of the family influenced diet and BMI. Discussion: Though childhood overweight and obesity rates appear to have stabilised over the previous decade, prevalence rates are unacceptably high. As expected, overweight and obesity were associated with a high energy intake and poor dietary quality. The findings also highlight strong associations between physical inactivity and the risk of overweight and obesity, with effect sizes greater than what have been typically found in adults. Important family level determinants of childhood overweight and obesity were also identified. The findings highlight the need for a multifaceted approach, targeting a range of modifiable determinants to tackle the problem. In particular, policies and interventions at the shared family environment or community level may be an effective mean of tackling this current epidemic.

Alcohol consumption and related harm among university students in Ireland

Aim: Alcohol consumption is a leading cause of global suffering. The harms caused by alcohol to the individual, their peers and the society in which they live provokes public health concern. Elevated levels of consumption and consequences have been noted in those aged 18-29 years. University students represent a unique subsection of society within this age group. University authorities have attempted to tackle this issue throughout the past decade. However, the issue persists. Thus, the aim of this study is to contribute to the evidence base for policy and practice in relation to alcohol harm reduction among third-level students in Ireland. Methods: A mixed methods approach was employed. A systematic review of the prevalence of hazardous alcohol consumption among university students in Ireland and the United Kingdom from 2002 to 2014 was conducted. In addition, a narrative synthesis of studies of drinking types evidenced among youths in western societies was undertaken. A cross-sectional study focused on university students’ health and lifestyle behaviours with particular reference to alcohol consumption was undertaken using previously validated instruments. Undergraduate students registered to one university in Ireland were recruited using two separate modes; classroom and online. Studies investigated the impact of mode of data collection, the prevalence of hazardous alcohol consumption and resultant adverse consequences for mental health and wellbeing. In addition a study using a Q-methodology approach was undertaken to gain a deeper understanding of the cultural factors influencing current patterns of alcohol consumption. Data were analysed using IBM SPPS statistics 20, Stata 12, MPLUS and PQ Method. Results: The literature review focusing on students’ alcohol consumption found that there has been both an increase in hazardous alcohol consumption among university students and a convergence of male and female drinking patterns throughout the past decade. Updating this research, the thesis found that two-thirds of university students consume alcohol at a hazardous level, detailing the range of adverse consequences reported by university students in Ireland. Finally, the heterogeneous nature of this drinking was described in a narrative synthesis exposing six types of consumption. The succeeding chapters develop this review further by describing three typologies of consumption, two quantitative and one quali-quantilogical. The quantitative typology describes three types of drinking for men (realistic hedonist, responsible conformer and guarded drinker) and four types for women (realistic hedonist, peer-influenced, responsible conformer and guarded drinker). The quali-quantilogical approach describes four types of consumption. These are defined as the ‘guarded drinker’, the ‘calculated hedonist’, the ‘peer-influenced drinker’ and the ‘inevitable binger’. Discussion: The findings of this thesis highlight the scale of the issue and provide up-to-date estimates of alcohol consumption among university students in Ireland. Hazardous alcohol consumption is associated with a range of harms to self and harms to others in proximity to the alcohol consumer. The classification of drinkers into types signal the necessity for university management, health promotion practitioners and public health policy makers to tackle this issue using a multi-faceted approach.

Management of safety climate and the psychosocial work environment – new challenges for occupational health and safety professionals?

Introduction: The work environment and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) practice have changed over the last number of years. A holistic OHS approach has been recommended by the authorities in this field (e.g. World Health Organisation (WHO), European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO)). This involves a unified action engaging elements of the physical and psychosocial workplace with greater focus on prevention and promotion of health and wellbeing. The health and safety practitioner (HSP) has been recognised as one of the main agents for implementation of OHS. Within an organisation they act as a leader of change and a professional who shapes health and safety while safeguarding the wellbeing of individuals at work. Additionally, safety climate (SC) has been developed as an essential concept for OHS of an organisation, its productivity and the wellbeing of its workforce. Scholars and practitioners have recognised the great need for further empirical evidence on the HSP’s role in a changing work environment that increasingly requires the use of preventative measures and the assessment and management of psychosocial work-related risks. This doctoral research brings together the different concepts used in OHS and Public Health including SC, Psychosocial workplace risks, Health Promotion and OHS performance. The associations between these concepts are analysed bearing in mind the WHO Healthy Workplace Framework and three of its main components (physical and psychosocial work environment and health resources). This thesis aims to establish a deeper understanding of the practice and management of OHS in Ireland and the UK, exploring the role of HSPs (employed in diverse sectors of activity) and of SC in the OHS of organisations. Methods: One systematic review and three cross-sectional research studies were performed. The systematic review focussed on the evidence compiled for the association of SC with accidents and injuries at work, clarifying this concept’s definition and its most relevant dimensions. The second article (chapter 3) explored the association of SC with accidents and injuries in a sample of workers (n=367) from a pharmaceutical industry and compared permanent with non-permanent workers. Associations of safety climate with employment status and with self-reported occupational accidents/injuries were studied through logistic regression modelling. The third and fourth papers in this thesis investigated the main tasks performed by HSPs, their perceptions of SC, health climate (HC), psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes as well as work efficacy. Validated questionnaires were applied to a sample of HSPs in Ireland and UK, members of the Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (n=1444). Chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used to assess the association between HSPs work characteristics and their involvement in the management of Psychosocial Risk Factors, Safety Culture and Health Promotion (paper 3). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between SC, HC, psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes (general health and mental wellbeing) and self-efficacy. Results: As shown in the systematic review, scientific evidence is unable to establish the widely assumed causal link between SC and accidents and injuries. Nevertheless, the current results suggested that, particularly, the organisational dimensions of SC were associated with accidents and injuries and that SC is linked to health, wellbeing and safety performance in the organisation. According to the present research, contingent workers had lower SC perceptions but showed a lower accident/injury rate than their permanent colleagues. The associations of safety climate with accidents/injuries had opposite directions for the two types of workers as for permanent employees it showed an inverse relationship while for temporary workers, although not significant, a positive association was found. This thesis’ findings showed that HSPs are, to a very small degree, included in activities related to psychosocial risk management and assessment, to a moderate degree, involved in HP activities and, to a large degree, engaged in the management of safety culture in organisations. In the final research study, SC and HC were linked to job demands-control-support (JDCS), health, wellbeing and efficacy. JDCS were also associated with all three outcomes under study. Results also showed the contribution of psychosocial risk factors to the association of SC and HC with all the studied outcomes. These associations had rarely been recorded previously. Discussion & Conclusions: Health and safety climate showed a significant association with health, wellbeing and efficacy - a relationship which affects working conditions and the health and wellbeing of the workforce. This demonstrates the link of both SC and HC with the OHS and the general strength or viability of organisations. A division was noticed between the area of “health” and “safety” in the workplace and in the approach to the physical and psychosocial work environment. These findings highlighted the current challenge in ensuring a holistic and multidisciplinary approach for prevention of hazards and for an integrated OHS management. HSPs have shown to be a pivotal agent in the shaping and development of OHS in organisations. However, as observed in this thesis, the role of these professionals is still far from the recommended involvement in the management of psychosocial risk factors and could have a more complete engagement in other areas of OHS such as health promotion. Additionally, a strong culture of health and safety with supportive management and buy-in from all stakeholders is essential to achieve the ideal unified and prevention-focussed approach to OHS as recommended by the WHO, EU-OSHA and ILO.

Exploring the relationship between patterns of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and cardiometabolic health in middle-aged Irish adults

Background and Study Rationale Being physically active is a major contributor to both physical and mental health. More specifically, being physically active lowers risk of coronary heart disease, high blood pressure, stroke, metabolic syndrome (MetS), diabetes, certain cancers and depression, and increases cognitive function and wellbeing. The physiological mechanisms that occur in response to physical activity and the impact of total physical activity and sedentary behaviour on cardiometabolic health have been extensively studied. In contrast, limited data evaluating the specific effects of daily and weekly patterns of physical behaviour on cardiometabolic health exist. Additionally, no other study has examined interrelated patterns and minute-by-minute accumulation of physical behaviour throughout the day across week days in middle-aged adults. Study Aims The overarching aims of this thesis are firstly to describe patterns of behaviour throughout the day and week, and secondly to explore associations between these patterns and cardiometabolic health in a middle-aged population. The specific objectives are to: 1 Compare agreement between the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) and GENEActiv accelerometer-derived moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) activity and secondly to compare their associations with a range of cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers in middle-aged adults. 2 Determine a suitable monitoring frame needed to reliably capture weekly, accelerometer-measured, activity in our population. 3 Identify groups of participants who have similar weekly patterns of physical behaviour, and determine if underlying patterns of cardiometabolic profiles exist among these groups. 4 Explore the variation of physical behaviour throughout the day to identify whether daily patterns of physical behaviour vary by cardiometabolic health. Methods All results in this thesis are based on data from a subsample of the Mitchelstown Cohort; 475 (46.1% males; mean aged 59.7±5.5 years) middle-aged Irish adults. Subjective physical activity levels were assessed using the IPAQ-SF. Participants wore the wrist GENEActiv accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. Data was collected at 100Hz and summarised into a signal magnitude vector using 60s epochs. Each time interval was categorised based on validated cut-offs. Data on cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers was collected according to standard protocol. Cardiometabolic outcomes (obesity, diabetes, hypertension and MetS) were defined according to internationally recognised definitions by World Health Organisation (WHO) and Irish Diabetes Federation (IDF). Results The results of the first chapter suggest that the IPAQ-SF lacks the sensitivity to assess patterning of activity and guideline adherence and assessing the relationship with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. Furthermore, GENEActiv accelerometer-derived MVPA appears to be better at detecting relationships with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. The second chapter examined variations in day-to-day physical behaviour levels between- and within-subjects. The main findings were that Sunday differed from all other days in the week for sedentary behaviour and light activity and that a large within-subject variation across days of the week for vigorous activity exists. Our data indicate that six days of monitoring, four weekdays plus Saturday and Sunday, are required to reliably estimate weekly habitual activity in all activity intensities. In the next chapter, latent profile analysis of weekly, interrelated patterns of physical behaviour identified four distinct physical behaviour patterns; Sedentary Group (15.9%), Sedentary; Lower Activity Group (28%), Sedentary; Higher Activity Group (44.2%) and a Physically Active Group (11.9%). Overall the Sedentary Group had poorer outcomes, characterised by unfavourable cardiometabolic and inflammatory profiles. The remaining classes were characterised by healthier cardiometabolic profiles with lower sedentary behaviour levels. The final chapter, which aimed to compare daily cumulative patterns of minute-by-minute physical behaviour intensities across those with and without MetS, revealed significant differences in weekday and weekend day MVPA. In particular, those with MetS start accumulating MVPA later in the day and for a shorted day period. Conclusion In conclusion, the results of this thesis add to the evidence base regards an optimal monitoring period for physical behaviour measurement to accurately capture weekly physical behaviour patterns. In addition, the results highlight whether weekly and daily distribution of activity is associated with cardiometabolic health and inflammatory profiles. The key findings of this thesis demonstrate the importance of daily and weekly physical behaviour patterning of activity intensity in the context of cardiometabolic health risk. In addition, these findings highlight the importance of using physical behaviour patterns of free-living adults observed in a population-based study to inform and aid health promotion activity programmes and primary care prevention and treatment strategies and development of future tailored physical activity based interventions.

Barriers and facilitators to initial and continued attendance at community-based lifestyle programmes among families of overweight and obese children: a systematic review

The success of childhood weight management programmes relies on family engagement. While attendance offers many benefits including the support to make positive lifestyle changes, the majority of families referred to treatment decline. Moreover, for those who do attend, benefits are often compromised by high programme attrition. This systematic review investigated factors influencing attendance at community-based lifestyle programmes among families of over-weight or obese children. A narrative synthesis approach was used to allow for the inclusion of quantitative, qualitative and mixed-method study designs. Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Results suggest that parents provided the impetus for programme initiation, and this was driven largely by a concern for their child's psychological health and wellbeing. More often than not, children went along without any real reason or interest in attending. Over the course of the programme, however, children's positive social experiences such as having fun and making friends fostered the desire to continue. The stigma surrounding excess weight and the denial of the issue amongst some parents presented barriers to enrolment and warrant further study. This study provides practical recommendations to guide future policy makers, programme delivery teams and researchers in developing strategies to boost recruitment and minimise attrition.

The ecology of the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) in rural Ireland

This study on the ecology of Irish hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) has provided information on detection techniques, home range, habitat selection, hedgehog prey, nesting, courtship, genetics, road mortality, parasites, ageing and morphology of this species. Data were obtained from a focal study area in rural Cork, in which 24 radio tagged hedgehogs were monitored from June 2008 to June 2010. Further data were obtained through road kill surveys and the collection of hedgehog carcasses from around Ireland. Hedgehogs of both sexes were found to display philopatry. Habitat was not used in proportion to its availability, but certain habitats were selected and a similar pattern of habitat selection was evident in successive years. Hedgehogs preferred arable land in September and October and, unlike studies elsewhere, were observed to forage in the centre of fields. Badgers were regularly seen at the study site and did not appear to negatively affect hedgehogs’ use of the area. Instead the intra- and inter-habitat distribution of hedgehogs was closely correlated with that of their potential prey. Male hedgehogs had a mean annual home range of 56 ha and females 16.5 ha, although monthly home ranges were much more conservative. Male home range peaked during the breeding season (April-July) and a peak in road deaths was observed during these months. The majority of road kill (54%) were individuals of one year old or less, however, individuals were found up to eight and nine years of age. Genetic analysis showed a distinct lack of genetic variation amongst Irish hedgehogs and suggests colonisation by a small number of individuals. The ectoparasites, Archaeopsylla erinacei, Ixodes hexagonus and Ixodes canisuga were recorded in addition to the endoparasites Crenosoma striatum and Capillaria erinacei. In light of the reported decline in many areas of the hedgehogs’ range, it is a species of conservation concern, and this is the first study examining the ecology of the hedgehog in Ireland.

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.