Hazard and early warning analysis based on domain specific modeling technologies

An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.

Early warning sign attributes for the safety of drinking water treatment works

A proactive risk management strategy seeks to prevent accidents from taking place and maintain the safety of a system. In this context, the task of identifying and disseminating early warning signs and signals is among the most important. The problem is that warning signs that are present before an accident takes place are often being overlooked and not picked up or identified as warning signs. If these warning signs were responded to, then an accident may be averted. Accidents occuring in the critical domain of a drinking water treatments works can have serious implications for the public health of consumers of the water supplied. Realising and comprehending early warning signs is a major challenge for the domain of systems safety and especially in the domain of a water treatment works. The approaches that are typically used to enhance the realisation, comprehension and dissemination of early warning signs in the water treatment domain in Ireland mainly involves the creation of accident scenarios, the use of monitoring data and procedures for the dissemination of warnings. While all of these approaches are all useful to inform the mental or process models of possible accident scenarios, nevertheless, accidents are still occurring in this domain. Therefore, a new approach to enhance the comprehension of and effective dissemination of early warning signs is required in order to improve safety and proactive risk management strategies. The contributions of this thesis is the provision of a set of attributes associated with the early warning sign concept that provides meaningful data on the early warning signs and allows recipients to better comprehend them. The values of these attributes were customised for application in the water treatment domain. This research proves that early warning signs at a water treatment works received with information on their attributes are comprehended and communicated more effectively and efficiently than the usual pragmatic approach and thereby improves the safety and proactive risk management strategies.

Using parent report to assess early lexical production in children exposed to more than one language

Limited expressive vocabulary skills in young children are considered to be the first warning signs of a potential Specific Language Impairment (SLI) (Ellis & Thal, 2008). In bilingual language learning environments, the expressive vocabulary size in each of the child’s developing languages is usually smaller compared to the number of words produced by monolingual peers (e.g. De Houwer, 2009). Nonetheless, evidence shows children’s total productive lexicon size across both languages to be comparable to monolingual peers’ vocabularies (e.g. Pearson et al., 1993; Pearson & Fernandez, 1994). Since there is limited knowledge as to which level of bilingual vocabulary size should be considered as a risk factor for SLI, the effects of bilingualism and language-learning difficulties on early lexical production are often confounded. The compilation of profiles for early vocabulary production in children exposed to more than one language, and their comparison across language pairs, should enable more accurate identification of vocabulary delays that signal a risk for SLI in bilingual populations. These considerations prompted the design of a methodology for assessing early expressive vocabulary in children exposed to more than one language, which is described in the present chapter. The implementation of this methodological framework is then outlined by presenting the design of a study that measured the productive lexicons of children aged 24-36 months who were exposed to different language pairs, namely Maltese and English, Irish and English, Polish and English, French and Portuguese, Turkish and German as well as English and Hebrew. These studies were designed and coordinated in COST Action IS0804 Working Group 3 (WG3) and will be described in detail in a series of subsequent publications. Expressive vocabulary size was measured through parental report, by employing the vocabulary checklist of the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory: Words and Sentences (CDI: WS) (Fenson et al., 1993, 2007) and its adaptations to the participants’ languages. Here we describe the novelty of the study’s methodological design, which lies in its attempt to harmonize the use of vocabulary checklist adaptations, together with parental questionnaires addressing language exposure and developmental history, across participant groups characterized by different language exposure variables. This chapter outlines the various methodological considerations that paved the way for meaningful cross-linguistic comparison of the participants’ expressive lexicon sizes. In so doing, it hopes to provide a template for and encourage further research directed at establishing a threshold for SLI risk in children exposed to more than one language.

Effectiveness of Depression-Suicidal Behaviour Gatekeeper training among police officers in three European regions: outcomes of the Optimising Suicide Prevention Programmes and their Implementation in Europe (OSPI-Europe) study

Background: Gatekeeper training for community facilitators, to identify and respond to those at risk of suicide, forms an important part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes. Aims: This study examined the effects of gatekeeper training on attitudes, knowledge and confidence of police officers in dealing with persons at risk of suicide. Methods: A total of 828 police officers across three European regions participated in a 4-hour training programme which addressed the epidemiology of depression and suicidal behaviour, symptoms of depression, warning signs and risk factors associated with suicidal behaviour, motivating help-seeking behaviour, dealing with acute suicidal crisis and informing bereaved relatives. Participants completed internationally validated questionnaires assessing stigmatising attitudes, knowledge about depression and confidence in dealing with suicidal persons pre- and post-training. Results: There were significant differences among countries in terms of previous exposure to suicidal persons and extent of previous training. Post-training evaluation demonstrated significant improvements in stigmatising attitudes, knowledge and confidence in all three countries. Conclusion: The consistently positive effects of gatekeeper training of police officers across different regions support inclusion of this type of training as a fundamental part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes and roll-out, nationally and internationally.

A medical study on wireless inertial measurement technology as a tool for identifying patients at risk of death or imminent clinical deterioration

This paper provides a system description and preliminary results for an ongoing clinical study currently being carried out at the Mid-Western Regional Hospital, Nenagh, Ireland. The goal of the trial is to determine if wireless inertial measurement technology can be employed to identify elderly patients at risk of death or imminent clinical deterioration. The system measures cumulative movement and provides a score that will help provide a robust early warning to clinical staff of clinical deterioration. In addition the study examines some of the logistical barriers to the adoption of wearable wireless technology in front-line medical care.

Applications of finite element computer modelling and thermal infrared remote sensing to the study of geothermal anomalies

Buried heat sources can be investigated by examining thermal infrared images and comparing these with the results of theoretical models which predict the thermal anomaly a given heat source may generate. Key factors influencing surface temperature include the geometry and temperature of the heat source, the surface meteorological environment, and the thermal conductivity and anisotropy of the rock. In general, a geothermal heat flux of greater than 2% of solar insolation is required to produce a detectable thermal anomaly in a thermal infrared image. A heat source of, for example, 2-300K greater than the average surface temperature must be a t depth shallower than 50m for the detection of the anomaly in a thermal infrared image, for typical terrestrial conditions. Atmospheric factors are of critical importance. While the mean atmospheric temperature has little significance, the convection is a dominant factor, and can act to swamp the thermal signature entirely. Given a steady state heat source that produces a detectable thermal anomaly, it is possible to loosely constrain the physical properties of the heat source and surrounding rock, using the surface thermal anomaly as a basis. The success of this technique is highly dependent on the degree to which the physical properties of the host rock are known. Important parameters include the surface thermal properties and thermal conductivity of the rock. Modelling of transient thermal situations was carried out, to assess the effect of time dependant thermal fluxes. One-dimensional finite element models can be readily and accurately applied to the investigation of diurnal heat flow, as with thermal inertia models. Diurnal thermal models of environments on Earth, the Moon and Mars were carried out using finite elements and found to be consistent with published measurements. The heat flow from an injection of hot lava into a near surface lava tube was considered. While this approach was useful for study, and long term monitoring in inhospitable areas, it was found to have little hazard warning utility, as the time taken for the thermal energy to propagate to the surface in dry rock (several months) in very long. The resolution of the thermal infrared imaging system is an important factor. Presently available satellite based systems such as Landsat (resolution of 120m) are inadequate for detailed study of geothermal anomalies. Airborne systems, such as TIMS (variable resolution of 3-6m) are much more useful for discriminating small buried heat sources. Planned improvements in the resolution of satellite based systems will broaden the potential for application of the techniques developed in this thesis. It is important to note, however, that adequate spatial resolution is a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful application of these techniques.

Bridge-vehicle interaction for structural health monitoring: potentials, applications, and limitations

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an integral part of infrastructure maintenance and management systems due to socio-economic, safety and security reasons. The behaviour of a structure under vibration depends on structure characteristics. The change of structure characteristics may suggest the change in system behaviour due to the presence of damage(s) within. Therefore the consistent, output signal guided, and system dependable markers would be convenient tool for the online monitoring, the maintenance, rehabilitation strategies, and optimized decision making policies as required by the engineers, owners, managers, and the users from both safety and serviceability aspects. SHM has a very significant advantage over traditional investigations where tangible and intangible costs of a very high degree are often incurred due to the disruption of service. Additionally, SHM through bridge-vehicle interaction opens up opportunities for continuous tracking of the condition of the structure. Research in this area is still in initial stage and is extremely promising. This PhD focuses on using bridge-vehicle interaction response for SHM of damaged or deteriorating bridges to monitor or assess them under operating conditions. In the present study, a number of damage detection markers have been investigated and proposed in order to identify the existence, location, and the extent of an open crack in the structure. The theoretical and experimental investigation has been conducted on Single Degree of Freedom linear system, simply supported beams. The novel Delay Vector Variance (DVV) methodology has been employed for characterization of structural behaviour by time-domain response analysis. Also, the analysis of responses of actual bridges using DVV method has been for the first time employed for this kind of investigation.

Resonant power conversion topologies for inductive charging of electrical vehicle batteries

This thesis is concerned with inductive charging of electric vehicle batteries. Rectified power form the 50/60 Hz utility feeds a dc-ac converter which delivers high-frequency ac power to the electric vehicle inductive coupling inlet. The inlet configuration has been defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers in Recommended Practice J-1773. This thesis studies converter topologies related to the series resonant converter. When coupled to the vehicle inlet, the frequency-controlled series-resonant converter results in a capacitively-filtered series-parallel LCLC (SP-LCLC) resonant converter topology with zero voltage switching and many other desirable features. A novel time-domain transformation analysis, termed Modal Analysis, is developed, using a state variable transformation, to analyze and characterize this multi-resonant fourth-orderconverter. Next, Fundamental Mode Approximation (FMA) Analysis, based on a voltage-source model of the load, and its novel extension, Rectifier-Compensated FMA (RCFMA) Analysis, are developed and applied to the SP-LCLC converter. The RCFMA Analysis is a simpler and more intuitive analysis than the Modal Analysis, and provides a relatively accurate closed-form solution for the converter behavior. Phase control of the SP-LCLC converter is investigated as a control option. FMA and RCFMA Analyses are used for detailed characterization. The analyses identify areas of operation, which are also validated experimentally, where it is advantageous to phase control the converter. A novel hybrid control scheme is proposed which integrates frequency and phase control and achieves reduced operating frequency range and improved partial-load efficiency. The phase-controlled SP-LCLC converter can also be configured with a parallel load and is an excellent option for the application. The resulting topology implements soft-switching over the entire load range and has high full-load and partial-load efficiencies. RCFMA Analysis is used to analyze and characterize the new converter topology, and good correlation is shown with experimental results. Finally, a novel single-stage power-factor-corrected ac-dc converter is introduced, which uses the current-source characteristic of the SP-LCLC topology to provide power factor correction over a wide output power range from zero to full load. This converter exhibits all the advantageous characteristics of its dc-dc counterpart, with a reduced parts count and cost. Simulation and experimental results verify the operation of the new converter.

Proteomic approaches to environmental stress in mussel Mytilus edulis due to emerging classes of anthropogenic pollutants

Anthropogenic pollutant chemicals pose a major threat to aquatic organisms. There is a need for more research on emerging categories of environmental chemicals such as nanomaterials, endocrine disruptors and pharmaceuticals. Proteomics offers options and advantages for early warning of alterations in environmental quality by detecting sub-lethal changes in sentinel species such as the mussel, Mytilus edulis. This thesis aimed to compare the potential of traditional biomarkers (such as enzyme activity measurement) and newer redox proteomic approaches. Environmental proteomics, especially a redox proteomics toolbox, may be a novel way to study pollutant effects on organisms which can also yield information on risks to human health. In particular, it can probe subtle biochemical changes at sub-lethal concentrations and thus offer novel insights to toxicity mechanisms. In the first instance, the present research involved a field-study in three stations in Cork Harbour, Ireland (Haulbowline, Ringaskiddy and Douglas) compared to an outharbour control site in Bantry Bay, Ireland. Then, further research was carried out to detect effects of anthropogenic pollution on selected chemicals. Diclofenac is an example of veterinary and human pharmaceuticals, an emerging category of chemical pollutants, with potential to cause serious toxicity to non-target organisms. A second chemical used for this study was copper which is a key source of contamination in marine ecosystems. Thirdly, bisphenol A is a major anthropogenic chemical mainly used in polycarbonate plastics manufacturing that is widespread in the environment. It is also suspected to be an endocrine disruptor. Effects on the gill, the principal feeding organ of mussels, were investigated in particular. Effects on digestive gland were also investigated to compare different outcomes from each tissue. Across the three anthropogenic chemicals studied (diclofenac, copper and bisphenol A), only diclofenac exposure did not show any significant difference towards glutathione transferase (GST) responses. Meanwhile, copper and bisphenol A significantly increased GST in gill. Glutathione reductase (GR) enzyme analysis revealed that all three chemicals have significant responses in gill. Catalase activity showed significant differences in digestive gland exposed to diclofenac and gills exposed to bisphenol A. This study focused then on application of redox proteomics; the study of the oxidative modification of proteins, to M. edulis. Thiol proteins were labelled with 5-iodoacetamidofluorescein prior to one-dimensional and two-dimensional electrophoresis. This clearly revealed some similarities on a portion of the redox proteome across chemical exposures indicating where toxicity mechanism may be common and where effects are unique to a single treatment. This thesis documents that proteomics is a robust tool to provide valuable insights into possible mechanisms of toxicity of anthropogenic contaminants in M. edulis. It is concluded that future research should focus on gill tissue, on protein thiols and on key individual proteins discovered in this study such as calreticulin and arginine kinase which have not previously been considered as biomarkers in aquatic toxicology prior to this study.