Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Users & use: An exploration of the interaction between the user and the digital archive

This thesis will examine the interaction between the user and the digital archive. The aim of the study is to support an in-depth examination of the interaction process, with a view to making recommendations and tools, for system designers and archival professionals, to promote digital archive domain development. Following a comprehensive literature review process, an urgent requirement for models was identified. The Model of Contextual Interaction presented in this thesis, aims to provide a conceptual model through which the interaction process, between the user and the digital archive, can be examined. Using the five-phased research development framework, the study will present a structured account of its methods, using a multi-method methodology to ensuring robust data collection and analysis. The findings of the study are presented across the Model of Contextual Interaction, and provide a basis on which recommendations and tools for system designers have been made. The thesis concludes with a summary of key findings, and a reflective account of how the findings and the Model of Contextual Interaction have impacted digital provision within the archive domain and how the model could be applied to other domains.

MyRoom: A user-centred model of affective responsive architecture

Can my immediate physical environment affect how I feel? The instinctive answer to this question must be a resounding “yes”. What might seem a throwaway remark is increasingly borne out by research in environmental and behavioural psychology, and in the more recent discipline of Evidence-Based Design. Research outcomes are beginning to converge with findings in neuroscience and neurophysiology, as we discover more about how the human brain and body functions, and reacts to environmental stimuli. What we see, hear, touch, and sense affects each of us psychologically and, by extension, physically, on a continual basis. The physical characteristics of our daily environment thus have the capacity to profoundly affect all aspects of our functioning, from biological systems to cognitive ability. This has long been understood on an intuitive basis, and utilised on a more conscious basis by architects and other designers. Recent research in evidence-based design, coupled with advances in neurophysiology, confirm what have been previously held as commonalities, but also illuminate an almost frightening potential to do enormous good, or alternatively, terrible harm, by virtue of how we make our everyday surroundings. The thesis adopts a design methodology in its approach to exploring the potential use of wireless sensor networks in environments for elderly people. Vitruvian principles of “commodity, firmness and delight” inform the research process and become embedded in the final design proposals and research conclusions. The issue of person-environment fit becomes a key principle in describing a model of continuously-evolving responsive architecture which makes the individual user its focus, with the intention of promoting wellbeing. The key research questions are: What are the key system characteristics of an adaptive therapeutic single-room environment? How can embedded technologies be utilised to maximise the adaptive and therapeutic aspects of the personal life-space of an elderly person with dementia?.

User experience of mobile cloud applications - current state and future directions

The increasing penetration rate of feature rich mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets in the global population has resulted in a large number of applications and services being created or modified to support mobile devices. Mobile cloud computing is a proposed paradigm to address the resource scarcity of mobile devices in the face of demand for more computing intensive tasks. Several approaches have been proposed to confront the challenges of mobile cloud computing, but none has used the user experience as the primary focus point. In this paper we evaluate these approaches in respect of the user experience, propose what future research directions in this area require to provide for this crucial aspect, and introduce our own solution.

Practice-based personas: integrated user and practice models

Practices are routinised behaviours with social and material components and complex relationships over space and time. Practice-based design goes beyond interaction design to consider how these components and their relationships impact on the formation and enactment of a practice, where technology is just one part of the practice. Though situated user-centred design methods such as participatory design are employed for the design of practice, demand exists for additional methods and tools in this area. This paper introduces practice-based personas as an extension of the persona approach popular in interaction design, and demonstrates how a set of practice-based personas was developed for a given domain – academic practice. The three practice-based personas developed here are linked to a catalogue of forty practices, offering designers both a user perspective and a practice perspective when designing for the domain.

Delivering mobile cloud services to the user: description, discovery, and consumption

The mobile cloud computing paradigm can offer relevant and useful services to the users of smart mobile devices. Such public services already exist on the web and in cloud deployments, by implementing common web service standards. However, these services are described by mark-up languages, such as XML, that cannot be comprehended by non-specialists. Furthermore, the lack of common interfaces for related services makes discovery and consumption difficult for both users and software. The problem of service description, discovery, and consumption for the mobile cloud must be addressed to allow users to benefit from these services on mobile devices. This paper introduces our work on a mobile cloud service discovery solution, which is utilised by our mobile cloud middleware, Context Aware Mobile Cloud Services (CAMCS). The aim of our approach is to remove complex mark-up languages from the description and discovery process. By means of the Cloud Personal Assistant (CPA) assigned to each user of CAMCS, relevant mobile cloud services can be discovered and consumed easily by the end user from the mobile device. We present the discovery process, the architecture of our own service registry, and service description structure. CAMCS allows services to be used from the mobile device through a user's CPA, by means of user defined tasks. We present the task model of the CPA enabled by our solution, including automatic tasks, which can perform work for the user without an explicit request.