Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.

Ironworking in late medieval Ireland, c. AD. 1200 to 1600

The landscape of late medieval Ireland, like most places in Europe, was characterized by intensified agricultural exploitation, the growth and founding of towns and cities and the construction of large stone edifices, such as castles and monasteries. None of these could have taken place without iron. Axes were needed for clearing woodland, ploughs for turning the soil, saws for wooden buildings and hammers and chisels for the stone ones, all of which could not realistically have been made from any other material. The many battles, waged with ever increasingly sophisticated weaponry, needed a steady supply of iron and steel. During the same period, the European iron industry itself underwent its most fundamental transformation since its inception; at the beginning of the period it was almost exclusively based on small furnaces producing solid blooms and by the turn of the seventeenth century it was largely based on liquid-iron production in blast-furnaces the size of a house. One of the great advantages of studying the archaeology of ironworking is that its main residue, slag, is often produced in copious amounts both during smelting and smithing, is virtually indestructible and has very little secondary use. This means that most sites where ironworking was carried out are readily recognizable as such by the occurrence of this slag. Moreover, visual examination can distinguish between various types of slag, which are often characteristic for the activity from which they derive. The ubiquity of ironworking in the period under study further means that we have large amounts of residues available for study, allowing us to distinguish patterns both inside assemblages and between sites. Disadvantages of the nature of the remains related to ironworking include the poor preservation of the installations used, especially the furnaces, which were often built out of clay and located above ground. Added to this are the many parameters contributing to the formation of the above-mentioned slag, making its composition difficult to connect to a certain technology or activity. Ironworking technology in late medieval Ireland has thus far not been studied in detail. Much of the archaeological literature on the subject is still tainted by the erroneous attribution of the main type of slag, bun-shaped cakes, to smelting activities. The large-scale infrastructure works of the first decade of the twenty-first century have led to an exponential increase in the amount of sites available for study. At the same time, much of the material related to metalworking recovered during these boom-years was subjected to specialist analysis. This has led to a near-complete overhaul of our knowledge of early ironworking in Ireland. Although many of these new insights are quickly seeping into the general literature, no concise overviews on the current understanding of the early Irish ironworking technology have been published to date. The above then presented a unique opportunity to apply these new insights to the extensive body of archaeological data we now possess. The resulting archaeological information was supplemented with, and compared to, that contained in the historical sources relating to Ireland for the same period. This added insights into aspects of the industry often difficult to grasp solely through the archaeological sources, such as the people involved and the trade in iron. Additionally, overviews on several other topics, such as a new distribution map of Irish iron ores and a first analysis of the information on iron smelting and smithing in late medieval western Europe, were compiled to allow this new knowledge on late medieval Irish ironworking to be put into a wider context. Contrary to current views, it appears that it is not smelting technology which differentiates Irish ironworking from the rest of Europe in the late medieval period, but its smithing technology and organisation. The Irish iron-smelting furnaces are generally of the slag-tapping variety, like their other European counterparts. Smithing, on the other hand, is carried out at ground-level until at least the sixteenth century in Ireland, whereas waist-level hearths become the norm further afield from the fourteenth century onwards. Ceramic tuyeres continue to be used as bellows protectors, whereas these are unknown elsewhere on the continent. Moreover, the lack of market centres at different times in late medieval Ireland, led to the appearance of isolated rural forges, a type of site unencountered in other European countries during that period. When these market centres are present, they appear to be the settings where bloom smithing is carried out. In summary, the research below not only offered us the opportunity to give late medieval ironworking the place it deserves in the broader knowledge of Ireland's past, but it also provided both a base for future research within the discipline, as well as a research model applicable to different time periods, geographical areas and, perhaps, different industries..