Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.

Practical programming for static average-case analysis: the MOQA investigation

This work considers the static calculation of a program’s average-case time. The number of systems that currently tackle this research problem is quite small due to the difficulties inherent in average-case analysis. While each of these systems make a pertinent contribution, and are individually discussed in this work, only one of them forms the basis of this research. That particular system is known as MOQA. The MOQA system consists of the MOQA language and the MOQA static analysis tool. Its technique for statically determining average-case behaviour centres on maintaining strict control over both the data structure type and the labeling distribution. This research develops and evaluates the MOQA language implementation, and adds to the functions already available in this language. Furthermore, the theory that backs MOQA is generalised and the range of data structures for which the MOQA static analysis tool can determine average-case behaviour is increased. Also, some of the MOQA applications and extensions suggested in other works are logically examined here. For example, the accuracy of classifying the MOQA language as reversible is investigated, along with the feasibility of incorporating duplicate labels into the MOQA theory. Finally, the analyses that take place during the course of this research reveal some of the MOQA strengths and weaknesses. This thesis aims to be pragmatic when evaluating the current MOQA theory, the advancements set forth in the following work and the benefits of MOQA when compared to similar systems. Succinctly, this work’s significant expansion of the MOQA theory is accompanied by a realistic assessment of MOQA’s accomplishments and a serious deliberation of the opportunities available to MOQA in the future.

Monitoring behaviours and experiences before, during and after pregnancy in Ireland

Background: On-going surveillance of behaviours during pregnancy is an important but overlooked population health activity that is particularly lacking in Ireland. Few, if any, nationally representative estimates of most maternal behaviours and experiences are available. While on-going surveillance of maternal behaviours has not been a priority thus far in European countries including Ireland, on-going surveillance was identified as a key priority in the United States (US) during the 1980’s when the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), was established. Today, PRAMS is the only surveillance programme of maternal behaviours and experiences world-wide. Although on-going prevalence estimates are required in Ireland, studies which examine the offspring health effects of maternal behaviours are also required, since various questions regarding maternal exposures and their offspring health effects remain unanswered. Gestational alcohol consumption is one such important maternal exposure which is common in pregnancy, though its offspring health effects are unclear, particularly at lower or moderate levels. Thus, guidelines internationally have not reached consensus on safe alcohol recommendations for pregnant women. The aims of this thesis are to implement the PRAMS in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland), to describe the prevalence of health behaviours around the time of pregnancy in Ireland and to examine the effect of health behaviours on pregnancy and child outcomes (specifically the relationship between alcohol use during pregnancy and infant and child growth). Structure: In Chapter 1, a brief background and rationale for the work, as well as the thesis aims and objective is provided. A detailed description of the design and implementation of PRAMS Ireland is described in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 describe the methodological results of the implementation of the PRAMS Ireland pilot study and PRAMS Ireland main study. In Chapter 5, a comparison of alcohol prevalence in two Irish studies (PRAMS Ireland and Growing up in Ireland (GUI)) and one multi-centre prospective cohort study, Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) Study is detailed. Chapter 6 describes findings on adherence to National Clinical Guidelines on health behaviours and nutrition around the time of pregnancy in PRAMS Ireland. Findings on exposure to alcohol use in pregnancy and infant growth outcomes are described in Chapter 7 and Chapter 8. The results of analysis conducted to examine the impact of gestational alcohol use on offspring growth trajectories to age ten are described in Chapter 9. Finally, a discussion of the findings, strengths and limitations of the thesis, direction for future research, policy, practice and public health implications are discussed in Chapter 10.Results: Implementation of PRAMS: PRAMS may be an effective system for the surveillance of health behaviours around the time of pregnancy in the Irish context. PRAMS Ireland had high response rates (67% and 61% response rates in the pilot and main study respectively), high item completion rates and valid prevalence estimates for many health behaviours. Examining prevalence of health behaviours: We found high levels of alcohol consumption before and during pregnancy, poor adherence to healthy diets and high levels of smoking before and during pregnancy among women in Ireland. Socially disadvantaged women had higher rates of deleterious health behaviours before pregnancy, although women with the most deleterious behaviour profiles before pregnancy appeared to experience the greatest gain in protective health behaviours during pregnancy. The impact of alcohol use on infant and offspring growth: We found that low and moderate levels of alcohol use did not impact on birth outcomes or offspring growth whereas heavy alcohol consumption resulted in reduced birth length and birth weight; however, this finding was not consistently observed across all studies. Selection, reporting and confounding biases which are common in observational research could be masking harmful effects. Conclusion: PRAMS is a valid and feasible method of surveillance of health behaviours around the time of pregnancy in Ireland. A surveillance program of maternal behaviours and experiences is immediately warranted due to high levels of deleterious health behaviours around the time of pregnancy in Ireland. Although our results do not indicate any evidence of harm, given the quality of evidence available, abstinence and advice of abstinence from alcohol may be the most prudent choice for patients and healthcare professionals respectively. Further studies of the effects of gestational alcohol use are required; particularly those which can reduce selection bias, reporting bias and confounding.

Investigating key decision problems to optimize the operation and maintenance strategy of offshore wind farms

This paper investigates three decision problems with potential to optimize operation and maintenance and logistics strategies for offshore wind farms: the timing of pre-determined jack-up vessel campaigns; selection of crew transfer vessel fleet; and timing of annual services. These problems are compared both in terms of potential cost reduction and the stochastic variability and associated uncertainty of the outcome. Pre-determined jack-up vessel campaigns appear to have a high cost reduction potential but also a higher stochastic variability than the other decision problems. The paper also demonstrates the benefits and difficulties of considering problems together rather than solving them in isolation.