Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Energy storage systems for wave energy converters and microgrids

The thesis initially gives an overview of the wave industry and the current state of some of the leading technologies as well as the energy storage systems that are inherently part of the power take-off mechanism. The benefits of electrical energy storage systems for wave energy converters are then outlined as well as the key parameters required from them. The options for storage systems are investigated and the reasons for examining supercapacitors and lithium-ion batteries in more detail are shown. The thesis then focusses on a particular type of offshore wave energy converter in its analysis, the backward bent duct buoy employing a Wells turbine. Variable speed strategies from the research literature which make use of the energy stored in the turbine inertia are examined for this system, and based on this analysis an appropriate scheme is selected. A supercapacitor power smoothing approach is presented in conjunction with the variable speed strategy. As long component lifetime is a requirement for offshore wave energy converters, a computer-controlled test rig has been built to validate supercapacitor lifetimes to manufacturer’s specifications. The test rig is also utilised to determine the effect of temperature on supercapacitors, and determine application lifetime. Cycle testing is carried out on individual supercapacitors at room temperature, and also at rated temperature utilising a thermal chamber and equipment programmed through the general purpose interface bus by Matlab. Application testing is carried out using time-compressed scaled-power profiles from the model to allow a comparison of lifetime degradation. Further applications of supercapacitors in offshore wave energy converters are then explored. These include start-up of the non-self-starting Wells turbine, and low-voltage ride-through examined to the limits specified in the Irish grid code for wind turbines. These applications are investigated with a more complete model of the system that includes a detailed back-to-back converter coupling a permanent magnet synchronous generator to the grid. Supercapacitors have been utilised in combination with battery systems for many applications to aid with peak power requirements and have been shown to improve the performance of these energy storage systems. The design, implementation, and construction of coupling a 5 kW h lithium-ion battery to a microgrid are described. The high voltage battery employed a continuous power rating of 10 kW and was designed for the future EV market with a controller area network interface. This build gives a general insight to some of the engineering, planning, safety, and cost requirements of implementing a high power energy storage system near or on an offshore device for interface to a microgrid or grid.

Electrical machine characterisation and analysis for renewable energy applications

There has been an increased use of the Doubly-Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) in ac drive applications in recent times, particularly in the field of renewable energy systems and other high power variable-speed drives. The DFIM is widely regarded as the optimal generation system for both onshore and offshore wind turbines and has also been considered in wave power applications. Wind power generation is the most mature renewable technology. However, wave energy has attracted a large interest recently as the potential for power extraction is very significant. Various wave energy converter (WEC) technologies currently exist with the oscillating water column (OWC) type converter being one of the most advanced. There are fundemental differences in the power profile of the pneumatic power supplied by the OWC WEC and that of a wind turbine and this causes significant challenges in the selection and rating of electrical generators for the OWC devises. The thesis initially aims to provide an accurate per-phase equivalent circuit model of the DFIM by investigating various characterisation testing procedures. Novel testing methodologies based on the series-coupling tests is employed and is found to provide a more accurate representation of the DFIM than the standard IEEE testing methods because the series-coupling tests provide a direct method of determining the equivalent-circuit resistances and inductances of the machine. A second novel method known as the extended short-circuit test is also presented and investigated as an alternative characterisation method. Experimental results on a 1.1 kW DFIM and a 30 kW DFIM utilising the various characterisation procedures are presented in the thesis. The various test methods are analysed and validated through comparison of model predictions and torque-versus-speed curves for each induction machine. Sensitivity analysis is also used as a means of quantifying the effect of experimental error on the results taken from each of the testing procedures and is used to determine the suitability of the test procedures for characterising each of the devices. The series-coupling differential test is demonstrated to be the optimum test. The research then focuses on the OWC WEC and the modelling of this device. A software model is implemented based on data obtained from a scaled prototype device situated at the Irish test site. Test data from the electrical system of the device is analysed and this data is used to develop a performance curve for the air turbine utilised in the WEC. This performance curve was applied in a software model to represent the turbine in the electro-mechanical system and the software results are validated by the measured electrical output data from the prototype test device. Finally, once both the DFIM and OWC WEC power take-off system have been modeled succesfully, an investigation of the application of the DFIM to the OWC WEC model is carried out to determine the electrical machine rating required for the pulsating power derived from OWC WEC device. Thermal analysis of a 30 kW induction machine is carried out using a first-order thermal model. The simulations quantify the limits of operation of the machine and enable thedevelopment of rating requirements for the electrical generation system of the OWC WEC. The thesis can be considered to have three sections. The first section of the thesis contains Chapters 2 and 3 and focuses on the accurate characterisation of the doubly-fed induction machine using various testing procedures. The second section, containing Chapter 4, concentrates on the modelling of the OWC WEC power-takeoff with particular focus on the Wells turbine. Validation of this model is carried out through comparision of simulations and experimental measurements. The third section of the thesis utilises the OWC WEC model from Chapter 4 with a 30 kW induction machine model to determine the optimum device rating for the specified machine. Simulations are carried out to perform thermal analysis of the machine to give a general insight into electrical machine rating for an OWC WEC device.

Feasibility of combined wind-wave energy platforms

The European Union has set out an ambitious 20% target for renewable energy use by 2020. It is expected that this will be met mainly by wind energy. Looking towards 2050, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% are to be sought. Given the issues securing this target in the transport and agriculture sectors, it may only be possible to achieve this target if the power sector is carbon neutral well in advance of 2050. This has permitted the vast expansion of offshore renewables, wind, wave and tidal energy. Offshore wind has undergone rapid development in recent years however faces significant challenges up to 2020 to ensure commercial viability without the need for government subsidies. Wave energy is still in the very early stages of development so as yet there has been no commercial roll out. As both of these technologies are to face similar challenges in ensuring they are a viable alternative power generation method to fossil fuels, capitalising on the synergies is potentially a significant cost saving initiative. The advent of hybrid solutions in a variety of configurations is the subject of this thesis. A singular wind-wave energy platform embodies all the attributes of a hybrid system, including sharing space, transmission infrastructure, O&M activities and a platform/foundation. This configuration is the subject of this thesis, and it is found that an OWC Array platform with multi-MegaWatt wind turbines is a technically feasible, and potentially an economically feasible solution in the long term. Methods of design and analysis adopted in this thesis include numerical and physical modelling of power performance, structural analysis, fabrication cost modelling, simplified project economic modelling and time domain reliability modelling of a 210MW hybrid farm. The application of these design and analysis methods has resulted in a hybrid solution capable of producing energy at a cost between €0.22/kWh and €0.31/kWh depending on the source of funding for the project. Further optimisation through detailed design is expected to lower this further. This thesis develops new and existing methods of design and analysis of wind and wave energy devices. This streamlines the process of early stage development, while adhering to the widely adopted Concept Development Protocol, to develop a technically and economically feasible, combined wind-wave energy hybrid solution.

Development of a triple stage heat transformer for the recycling of low temperature heat energy

Absorption heat transformers are thermodynamic systems which are capable of recycling industrial waste heat energy by increasing its temperature. Triple stage heat transformers (TAHTs) can increase the temperature of this waste heat by up to approximately 145˚C. The principle factors influencing the thermodynamic performance of a TAHT and general points of operating optima were identified using a multivariate statistical analysis, prior to using heat exchange network modelling techniques to dissect the design of the TAHT and systematically reassemble it in order to minimise internal exergy destruction within the unit. This enabled first and second law efficiency improvements of up to 18.8% and 31.5% respectively to be achieved compared to conventional TAHT designs. The economic feasibility of such a thermodynamically optimised cycle was investigated by applying it to an oil refinery in Ireland, demonstrating that in general the capital cost of a TAHT makes it difficult to achieve acceptable rates of return. Decreasing the TAHT's capital cost may be achieved by redesigning its individual pieces of equipment and reducing their size. The potential benefits of using a bubble column absorber were therefore investigated in this thesis. An experimental bubble column was constructed and used to track the collapse of steam bubbles being absorbed into a hotter lithium bromide salt solution. Extremely high mass transfer coefficients of approximately 0.0012m/s were observed, showing significant improvements over previously investigated absorbers. Two separate models were developed, namely a combined heat and mass transfer model describing the rate of collapse of the bubbles, and a stochastic model describing the hydrodynamic motion of the collapsing vapour bubbles taking into consideration random fluctuations observed in the experimental data. Both models showed good agreement with the collected data, and demonstrated that the difference between the solution's temperature and its boiling temperature is the primary factor influencing the absorber's performance.

Infant milk formula manufacture: process and compositional interactions in high dry matter wet-mixes

Infant milk formula (IMF) is fortified milk with composition based on the nutrient content in human mother's milk, 0 to 6 months postpartum. Extensive medical and clinical research has led to advances in the nutritional quality of infant formula; however, relatively few studies have focused on interactions between nutrients and the manufacturing process. The objective of this research was to investigate the impact of composition and processing parameters on physical behaviour of high dry matter (DM) IMF systems with a view to designing more sustainable manufacturing processes. The study showed that commercial IMF, with similar compositions, manufactured by different processes, had markedly different physical properties in dehydrated or reconstituted state. Commercial products made with hydrolysed protein were more heat stable compared to products made with intact protein, however, emulsion quality was compromised. Heat-induced denaturation of whey proteins resulted in increased viscosity of wet-mixes, an effect that was dependant on both whey concentration and interactions with lactose and caseins. Expanding on fundamental laboratory studies, a novel high velocity steam injection process was developed whereby high DM (60%) wet-mixes with lower denaturation/viscosity compared to conventional processes could be achieved; powders produced using this process were of similar quality to those manufactured conventionally. Hydrolysed proteins were also shown to be an effective way of reducing viscosity in heat-treated high DM wet-mixes. In particular, using a whey protein concentrate whereby β-Lactoglobulin was selectively hydrolysed, i.e., α-Lactalbumin remained intact, reduced viscosity of wet-mixes during processing while still providing good emulsification. The thesis provides new insights into interactions between nutrients and/or processing which influence physical stability of IMF both in concentrated liquid and powdered form. The outcomes of the work have applications in such areas as; increasing the DM content of spray drier feeds in order to save energy, and, controlling final powder quality.