Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Soft sediment ecology of Lough Hyne Marine Reserve - spatial and temporal patterns

Distribution of soft sediment benthic fauna and the environmental factors affecting them were studied, to investigate changes across spatial and temporal scales. Investigations took place at Lough Hyne Marine Reserve using a range of methods. Data on the sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter were collected at monthly intervals for one year at a number of sites around the Lough, by use of vertical midwater-column sediment traps. Sedimentation of these two fractions were not coupled; inorganic matter sedimentation depended on hydrodynamic and weather factors, while the organic matter sedimentation was more complex, being dependent on biological and chemical processes in the water column. The effects of regular hypoxic episodes on benthic fauna due to a natural seasonal thermocline were studied in the deep Western Trough, using camera-equipped remotely-operated vehicle to follow transects, on a three-monthly basis over one year. In late summer, the area below the thermocline of the Western Trough was devoid of visible fauna. Decapod crustaceans were the first taxon to make use of ameliorating oxygen conditions in autumn, by darting below the thermocline depth, most likely to scavenge. This was indicated by tracks that they left on the surface of the Trough floor. Some species, most noticeably Fries’ goby Lesueurigobius friesii, migrated below the thermocline depth when conditions were normoxic and established semi-permanent burrows. Their population encompassed all size classes, indicating that this habitat was not limited to juveniles of this territorial species. Recolonisation by macrofauna and burrowing megafauna was studied during normoxic conditions, from November 2009 to May 2010. Macrofauna displayed a typical post-disturbance pattern of recolonisation with one species, the polychaete Scalibregma inflatum, occurring at high abundance levels in March 2010. In May, this population had become significantly reduced and a more diverse community was established. The abundance of burrowing infauna comprising decapods crabs and Fries’ gobies, was estimated by identifying and counting their distinctive burrow structures. While above the summer thermocline depth, burrow abundance increased in a linear fashion, below the thermocline depth a slight reduction of burrow abundance occurred in May, when oxygen conditions deteriorated again. The majority of the burrows occurring in May were made by Fries’ gobies, which are thought to encounter low oxygen concentrations in their burrows. Reduction in burrow abundance of burrowing shrimps Calocaris macandreae and Callianassa subterranea (based on descriptions of burrow structures from the literature), from March to May, might be related to their reduced activity in hypoxia, leading to loss of structural burrow maintenance. Spatial and temporal changes to macrofaunal assemblage structures were studied seasonally for one year across 5 sites in the Lough and subject to multivariate statistical analysis. Assemblage structures were significantly correlated with organic matter levels in the sediment, the amounts of organic matter settling out of the water column one month before macrofaunal sampling took place as well as current speed and temperature. This study was the first to investigate patterns and processes in the Lough soft sediment ecology across all 3 basins on a temporal and spatial scale. An investigation into the oceanographic aspects of the development, behaviour and break-down of the summer thermocline of Lough Hyne was performed in collaboration with researchers from other Irish institutions.

The importance of interaction strength for food web dynamics and ecosystem functioning

Global biodiversity is eroding at an alarming rate, through a combination of anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change. Ecological communities are bewildering in their complexity. Experimental ecologists strive to understand the mechanisms that drive the stability and structure of these complex communities in a bid to inform nature conservation and management. Two fields of research have had high profile success at developing theories related to these stabilising structures and testing them through controlled experimentation. Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has explored the likely consequences of biodiversity loss on the functioning of natural systems and the provision of important ecosystem services. Empirical tests of BEF theory often consist of simplified laboratory and field experiments, carried out on subsets of ecological communities. Such experiments often overlook key information relating to patterns of interactions, important relationships, and fundamental ecosystem properties. The study of multi-species predator-prey interactions has also contributed much to our understanding of how complex systems are structured, particularly through the importance of indirect effects and predator suppression of prey populations. A growing number of studies describe these complex interactions in detailed food webs, which encompass all the interactions in a community. This has led to recent calls for an integration of BEF research with the comprehensive study of food web properties and patterns, to help elucidate the mechanisms that allow complex communities to persist in nature. This thesis adopts such an approach, through experimentation at Lough Hyne marine reserve, in southwest Ireland. Complex communities were allowed to develop naturally in exclusion cages, with only the diversity of top trophic levels controlled. Species removals were carried out and the resulting changes to predator-prey interactions, ecosystem functioning, food web properties, and stability were studied in detail. The findings of these experiments contribute greatly to our understanding of the stability and structure of complex natural communities.

The impacts of past land-use on the ecology of an ancient woodland in south-west Ireland

A multi-disciplinary study was conducted to compare stands of ancient and secondary origin within a single wood, the Gearagh woodland, County Cork. These sites were compared with adjacent areas of grassland, which provided a reference for the former land-use (pasture) of the secondary woodland. A historical study confirmed that while the core of the Gearagh has been subject to minimal human interference, other sections have been cleared in the past for agricultural purposes. Investigations into soil structure and composition showed that soil properties in these secondary woodland areas were significantly altered by this past woodland clearance and conversion to agriculture, while the soil of the ancient woodland showed little signs of disturbance. The vegetation community also differed between the two woodland areas, partly due to altered environmental conditions. Many of the ancient woodland plant species were unable to form a persistent seed bank, while there was increased representation of species associated with more open-habitat conditions in the seed bank of the secondary woodland. While germination of woodland species was low in all sites, overall, seeds tended to germinate more successfully in the ancient woodland. The ancient woodland also provided a suitable habitat for many soil and ground detritivores, most notably enchytraeids, although earthworms were not abundant. Past agricultural use, however, changed the decomposer community considerably, with increased representation of earthworm species and a decline in the abundance of enchytraeids in the secondary stands. In conclusion, the legacies of historical agricultural activities can continue to significantly affect the structure and composition of present-day woodlands so that they may differ considerably from undisturbed ancient woodland stands, even within the same woodland. A greater understanding of the origin, development and ecological functioning of ancient woodlands should aid in determining future conservation and management requirements.

Ecotoxicology of marine biotoxins in bivalve shellfish

A small proportion of harmful algae produce toxins which are harmful to human health. Strict monitoring programmes are in place within Ireland and the EU to effectively manage risk to human consumers of shellfish species that have accumulated marine biotoxins in their tissues. However, little is known about the impacts of HABs on shellfish health. This study used Solid Phase Adsorption and Toxin Tracking (SPATT) for the passive sampling of algal biotoxins at Lough Hyne Marine Nature Reserve in West Cork, Ireland. Spatial and temporal monitoring of the incidence of a wide range of lipophilic toxins was assessed over a 4-month period. Active sampling accumulated sufficient quantities of toxin for use in subsequent experimentation. In addition to commonly occurring Diarrhetic Shellfish Poisoning (DSP) toxins, Dinophysis toxin-1 and Pinnatoxin-G were both detected in the samples. This is the first identification of these latter two toxins in Irish waters. The effects of the DSP toxin okadaic acid (OA) were investigated on three shellfish species: Mytilus edulis, Ruditapes philippinarum and Crassostrea gigas. Histological examination of the gill, mantle and hepatopancreas tissues revealed varying intensity of damage depending both on the tissue type and the species involved. At the cellular level, flow cytometric analysis of the differential cell population distribution was assessed. No change in cell population distribution was observed in Mytilus edulis or Ruditapes philippinarum, however significant changes were observed in Crassostrea gigas granulocytes at the lower levels of toxin exposure. This indicated a chemically-induced response to OA. DNA fragmentation was measured in the haemolymph and hepatopancreas cells post OA-exposure in Mytilus edulis and Crassostrea gigas. A significant increase in DNA fragmentation was observed in both species over time, even at the lowest OA concentrations. DNA fragmentation could be due to genotoxicity of OA and/or to the induction of cell apoptosis.

Mesenchymal stem cell therapy for the treatment of myocardial infarction

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are currently under investigation as repair agents in the preservation of cardiac function following myocardial infarction (MI). However concerns have emerged regarding the safety of acute intracoronary (IC) MSC delivery specifically related to mortality, micro-infarction and microvascular flow restriction post cell therapy in animal models. This thesis aimed to firstly identify an optimal dose of MSC that could be tolerated when delivered via the coronary artery in a porcine model of acute MI (AMI). Initial dosing studies identified 25x106 MSC to be a safe MSC cell dose, however, angiographic observations from these studies recognised that on delivery of MSC there was a significant adverse decrease in distal blood flow within the artery. This observation along with additional supportive data in the literature (published during the course of this thesis) suggested MSC may be contributing to such adverse events through the propagation of thrombosis. Therefore further studies aimed to investigate the innate prothrombotic activity of MSC. Expression of the initiator of the coagulation cascade initiator tissue factor (TF) on MSC was detected in high levels on the surface of these cells. MSC-derived TF antigen was catalytically active, capable of supporting thrombin generation in vitro and enhancing platelet-driven thrombus deposition on collagen under flow. Infusion of MSC via IC route was associated with a decreased coronary flow reserve when delivered but not when coadministered with an antithrombin agent heparin. Heparin also reduced MSC-associated in situ thrombosis incorporating platelets and VWF in the microvasculature. Heparin-assisted MSC delivery reduced acute apoptosis and significantly improved infarct size, left ventricular ejection fraction, LV volumes, wall motion and scar formation at 6 weeks post AMI. In addition, this thesis investigated the paracrine factors secreted by MSC, in particular focusing on the effect on cardiac repair of a novel MSC-paracrine factor SPARCL1. In summary this work provides new insight into the mechanism by which MSC may be deleterious when delivered by an IC route and a means of abrogating this effect. Moreover we present new data on the MSC secretome with elucidation of the challenges encountered using a single paracrine factor cardiac repair strategy.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.