The Hurst exponent as an indicator of the behaviour of a model monopile in an ocean wave testing basin

With the importance of renewable energy well-established worldwide, and targets of such energy quantified in many cases, there exists a considerable interest in the assessment of wind and wave devices. While the individual components of these devices are often relatively well understood and the aspects of energy generation well researched, there seems to be a gap in the understanding of these devices as a whole and especially in the field of their dynamic responses under operational conditions. The mathematical modelling and estimation of their dynamic responses are more evolved but research directed towards testing of these devices still requires significant attention. Model-free indicators of the dynamic responses of these devices are important since it reflects the as-deployed behaviour of the devices when the exposure conditions are scaled reasonably correctly, along with the structural dimensions. This paper demonstrates how the Hurst exponent of the dynamic responses of a monopile exposed to different exposure conditions in an ocean wave basin can be used as a model-free indicator of various responses. The scaled model is exposed to Froude scaled waves and tested under different exposure conditions. The analysis and interpretation is carried out in a model-free and output-only environment, with only some preliminary ideas regarding the input of the system. The analysis indicates how the Hurst exponent can be an interesting descriptor to compare and contrast various scenarios of dynamic response conditions.

Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.