Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The ecology of the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) in rural Ireland

This study on the ecology of Irish hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) has provided information on detection techniques, home range, habitat selection, hedgehog prey, nesting, courtship, genetics, road mortality, parasites, ageing and morphology of this species. Data were obtained from a focal study area in rural Cork, in which 24 radio tagged hedgehogs were monitored from June 2008 to June 2010. Further data were obtained through road kill surveys and the collection of hedgehog carcasses from around Ireland. Hedgehogs of both sexes were found to display philopatry. Habitat was not used in proportion to its availability, but certain habitats were selected and a similar pattern of habitat selection was evident in successive years. Hedgehogs preferred arable land in September and October and, unlike studies elsewhere, were observed to forage in the centre of fields. Badgers were regularly seen at the study site and did not appear to negatively affect hedgehogs’ use of the area. Instead the intra- and inter-habitat distribution of hedgehogs was closely correlated with that of their potential prey. Male hedgehogs had a mean annual home range of 56 ha and females 16.5 ha, although monthly home ranges were much more conservative. Male home range peaked during the breeding season (April-July) and a peak in road deaths was observed during these months. The majority of road kill (54%) were individuals of one year old or less, however, individuals were found up to eight and nine years of age. Genetic analysis showed a distinct lack of genetic variation amongst Irish hedgehogs and suggests colonisation by a small number of individuals. The ectoparasites, Archaeopsylla erinacei, Ixodes hexagonus and Ixodes canisuga were recorded in addition to the endoparasites Crenosoma striatum and Capillaria erinacei. In light of the reported decline in many areas of the hedgehogs’ range, it is a species of conservation concern, and this is the first study examining the ecology of the hedgehog in Ireland.

Modular average case analysis: Language implementation and extension

Motivated by accurate average-case analysis, MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA) is developed at the Centre for Efficiency Oriented Languages (CEOL). In essence, MOQA allows the programmer to determine the average running time of a broad class of programmes directly from the code in a (semi-)automated way. The MOQA approach has the property of randomness preservation which means that applying any operation to a random structure, results in an output isomorphic to one or more random structures, which is key to systematic timing. Based on original MOQA research, we discuss the design and implementation of a new domain specific scripting language based on randomness preserving operations and random structures. It is designed to facilitate compositional timing by systematically tracking the distributions of inputs and outputs. The notion of a labelled partial order (LPO) is the basic data type in the language. The programmer uses built-in MOQA operations together with restricted control flow statements to design MOQA programs. This MOQA language is formally specified both syntactically and semantically in this thesis. A practical language interpreter implementation is provided and discussed. By analysing new algorithms and data restructuring operations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the MOQA approach. Also we extend MOQA theory to a number of other domains besides average-case analysis. We show the strong connection between MOQA and parallel computing, reversible computing and data entropy analysis.

Comparing impacts of new cropping systems on biodiversity in traditional rural China

This study selected six geographically-similar villages with traditional and alternative cultivation methods (two groups of three, one traditional and two alternatives) in two counties of Henan Province, China—a representative area of the Huang-huai-hai Plain representing traditional rural China. Soil heavy metal concentrations, floral and faunal biodiversity, and socio-economic data were recorded. Heavy metal concentrations of surface soils from three sites in each village were analysed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS, chromium, nickel, copper, cadmium, and lead) and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS, zinc). The floral biodiversity of four land-use types was recorded following the Braun-Blanquet coverage-abundance method using 0.5×0.5m quadrats. The faunal biodiversity of two representative farmland plots was recorded using 0.3×0.3m quadrats at four 0.1m layers. The socio-economic data were recorded through face-to-face interviews of one hundred randomly selected households at each village. Results demonstrate different cultivation methods lead to different impact on above variables. Traditional cultivation led to lower heavy metal concentrations; both alternative managements were associated with massive agrochemical input causing heavy metal pollution in farmlands. Floral distribution was significantly affected by village factors. Diverse cultivation supported high floral biodiversity through multi-scale heterogeneous landscapes containing niches and habitats. Faunal distribution was also significantly affected by village factor nested within soil depth. Different faunal groups responded differently, with Acari being taxonomically diverse and Collembola high in densities. Increase in manual labour and crop number in villages using alternative cultivation may positively affect biodiversity. The results point to the conservation potential of diverse cultivation methods in traditional rural China and other regions under social and political reforms, where traditional agriculture is changing to unified, large-scale mechanized agriculture. This study serves as a baseline for conservation in small-holding agricultural areas of China, and points to the necessity of further studies at larger and longer scales.

The relationship between rural livelihoods and livestock keeping: the case of Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia

This study examines the relationship between rural livelihoods and livestock keeping in Sidama Zones, southern Ethiopia. The livelihood context, assets and strategies of households are the key features of rural livelihoods considered in the study; while households’ livestock ownership, dependence on livestock and livestock management are the main aspects of livestock keeping examined. The study used the sustainable livelihood approach as a framework for data collection and analysis. Describing the main features of rural livelihoods and livestock keeping, and the general pattern of relationship between them, this study mainly aims at identifying the main livelihood factors that determine livestock keeping in the study area. Descriptive statistics, pair wise correlations, mean comparisons and analysis of variance were used to describe rural livelihoods and livestock keeping as well as the relationship between them. Tobit regressions were used to examine the effect of the various livelihood factors on households’ livestock ownership and dependence; Poisson regressions are used to investigate the factors that influence the intensity of livestock management measured by the use of different technologies and inputs. The findings indicated that a number of livelihood factors - assets, livelihood strategies, livelihood shocks and institutional supports - significantly determine the different aspects of livestock keeping. These include: human assets such as age, education and family size; social assets such as membership to social groups; financial assets such as credit; natural assets such as land, and household physical assets; and livelihood strategies such as diversification into farm and nonfarm activities, and coping mechanisms. In addition the livelihood vulnerability context such as shocks and institutional support are among the main determinants of livestock keeping. The results, by and large, matched the findings of previous studies, and it is concluded that households livestock keeping depends on their livelihoods. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies aiming at livestock asset building and productivity improvement should take the livelihoods of rural households in to consideration. As such the study contribute to scholarly works in the area of rural livelihoods, in general, and livestock keeping, in particular. It also contributes to a better understanding of the problems of livestock keeping within the context of rural livelihoods in the country and to the formulation of appropriate policy for the development of the sector.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Guam – a case-study of the perceptions, attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge of a small rural community towards their watershed

This thesis argues that examining the attitudes, perceptions, behaviors, and knowledge of a community towards their specific watershed can reveal their social vulnerability to climate change. Understanding and incorporating these elements of the human dimension in coastal zone management will lead to efficient and effective strategies that safeguard the natural resources for the benefit of the community. By having healthy natural resources, ecological and community resilience to climate change will increase, thus decreasing vulnerability. In the Pacific Ocean, climate and SLR are strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. SLR is three times the global average in the Western Pacific Ocean (Merrifield and Maltrud 2011; Merrifield 2011). Changes in annual rainfall in the Western North Pacific sub‐region from 1950-2010 show that islands in the east are getting much less than in the past, while the islands in the west are getting slightly more rainfall (Keener et al. 2013). For Guam, a small island owned by the United States and located in the Western Pacific Ocean, these factors mean that SLR is higher than any other place in the world and will most likely see increased precipitation. Knowing this, the social vulnerability may be examined. Thus, a case-study of the community residing in the Manell and Geus watersheds was conducted on the island of Guam. Measuring their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors should bring to light their vulnerability to climate change. In order to accomplish this, a household survey was administered from July through August 2010. Approximately 350 surveys were analysed using SPSS. To supplement this quantitative data, informal interviews were conducted with the elders of the community to glean traditional ecological knowledge about perceived climate change. A GIS analysis was conducted to understand the physical geography of the Manell and Geus watersheds. This information about the human dimension is valuable to CZM managers. It may be incorporated into strategic watershed plans, to better administer the natural resources within the coastal zone. The research conducted in this thesis is the basis of a recent watershed management plan for the Guam Coastal Management Program (see King 2014).