Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The Celtic dragon slayer - a literary analysis of Tochmarc Emire in connection with Tristan et Iseut

As Celtic scholars have long noted, the medieval Irish tale Tochmarc Emire “The Courtship of Emer” is heavily indebted to other medieval Irish texts. In this tale of courtship and otherworldly quests, the Irish hero Cú Chulainn must prove himself worthy of the hand of the noblewoman Emer. Among his overseas adventures, Cú Chulainn rescues a princess from three attackers of the Fomoire. This episode may represent the only medieval Irish example of AT300 “The Dragon Slayer”, a story pattern known from classical models such as the stories of Perseus and Andromeda; and Hercules and Hesione. Moreover, in the company of Cú Chulainn we find a character otherwise unknown to Irish tradition by the name of Drust mac Seirb. This has led scholars to argue that Tochmarc Emire may preserve a Celtic precursor of the Continental Tristan legend, seeing in Drust the Pictish origin of the character Tristan, himself a famous dragon slayer. In this interdisciplinary dissertation, a number of questions are addressed. If the redactor of Tochmarc Emire drew on material from outside Irish tradition, what does this tell us about medieval Irish concepts of literature and genre? Further, what evidence do we have for tracing the origin of the Continental Tristan legend back to Pictland, and what explanation might we offer for a putative Pictish prince featuring in an Irish Dragon Slayer story? Finally, what place does the Dragon Slayer episode occupy within Tochmarc Emire and can we find other narratives, Celtic or classical or other, fitting the pattern of AT300, which may strengthen the link between Tochmarc Emire and Tristan?