Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Experimental quantification and modelling of attrition of infant formulae during pneumatic conveying

Infant formula is often produced as an agglomerated powder using a spray drying process. Pneumatic conveying is commonly used for transporting this product within a manufacturing plant. The transient mechanical loads imposed by this process cause some of the agglomerates to disintegrate, which has implications for key quality characteristics of the formula including bulk density and wettability. This thesis used both experimental and modelling approaches to investigate this breakage during conveying. One set of conveying trials had the objective of establishing relationships between the geometry and operating conditions of the conveying system and the resulting changes in bulk properties of the infant formula upon conveying. A modular stainless steel pneumatic conveying rig was constructed for these trials. The mode of conveying and air velocity had a statistically-significant effect on bulk density at a 95% level, while mode of conveying was the only factor which significantly influenced D[4,3] or wettability. A separate set of conveying experiments investigated the effect of infant formula composition, rather than the pneumatic conveying parameters, and also assessed the relationships between the mechanical responses of individual agglomerates of four infant formulae and their compositions. The bulk densities before conveying, and the forces and strains at failure of individual agglomerates, were related to the protein content. The force at failure and stiffness of individual agglomerates were strongly correlated, and generally increased with increasing protein to fat ratio while the strain at failure decreased. Two models of breakage were developed at different scales; the first was a detailed discrete element model of a single agglomerate. This was calibrated using a novel approach based on Taguchi methods which was shown to have considerable advantages over basic parameter studies which are widely used. The data obtained using this model compared well to experimental results for quasi-static uniaxial compression of individual agglomerates. The model also gave adequate results for dynamic loading simulations. A probabilistic model of pneumatic conveying was also developed; this was suitable for predicting breakage in large populations of agglomerates and was highly versatile: parts of the model could easily be substituted by the researcher according to their specific requirements.

Shear effects on the properties and separation characteristics of whey protein precipitates

Selective isoelectric whey protein precipitation and aggregation is carried out at laboratory scale in a standard configuration batch agitation vessel. Geometric scale-up of this operation is implemented on the basis of constant impeller power input per unit volume and subsequent clarification is achieved by high speed disc-stack centrifugation. Particle size and fractal geometry are important in achieving efficient separation while aggregates need to be strong enough to resist the more extreme levels of shear that are encountered during processing, for example through pumps, valves and at the centrifuge inlet zone. This study investigates how impeller agitation intensity and ageing time affect aggregate size, strength, fractal dimension and hindered settling rate at laboratory scale in order to determine conditions conducive for improved separation. Particle strength is measured by observing the effects of subjecting aggregates to moderate and high levels of process shear in a capillary rig and through a partially open ball-valve respectively. The protein precipitate yield is also investigated with respect to ageing time and impeller agitation intensity. A pilot scale study is undertaken to investigate scale-up and how agitation vessel shear affects centrifugal separation efficiency. Laboratory scale studies show that precipitates subject to higher impeller shear-rates during the addition of the precipitation agent are smaller but more compact than those subject to lower impeller agitation and are better able to resist turbulent breakage. They are thus more likely to provide a better feed for more efficient centrifugal separation. Protein precipitation yield improves significantly with ageing, and 50 minutes of ageing is required to obtain a 70 - 80% yield of α-lactalbumin. Geometric scale-up of the agitation vessel at constant power per unit volume results in aggregates of broadly similar size exhibiting similar trends but with some differences due to the absence of dynamic similarity due to longer circulation time and higher tip speed in the larger vessel. Disc stack centrifuge clarification efficiency curves show aggregates formed at higher shear-rates separate more efficiently, in accordance with laboratory scale projections. Exposure of aggregates to highly turbulent conditions, even for short exposure times, can lead to a large reduction in particle size. Thus, improving separation efficiencies can be achieved by the identification of high shear zones in a centrifugal process and the subsequent elimination or amelioration of such.

Mathematical modelling and optimisation of the formulation and manufacture of aggregate food products

In this PhD study, mathematical modelling and optimisation of granola production has been carried out. Granola is an aggregated food product used in breakfast cereals and cereal bars. It is a baked crispy food product typically incorporating oats, other cereals and nuts bound together with a binder, such as honey, water and oil, to form a structured unit aggregate. In this work, the design and operation of two parallel processes to produce aggregate granola products were incorporated: i) a high shear mixing granulation stage (in a designated granulator) followed by drying/toasting in an oven. ii) a continuous fluidised bed followed by drying/toasting in an oven. In addition, the particle breakage of granola during pneumatic conveying produced by both a high shear granulator (HSG) and fluidised bed granulator (FBG) process were examined. Products were pneumatically conveyed in a purpose built conveying rig designed to mimic product conveying and packaging. Three different conveying rig configurations were employed; a straight pipe, a rig consisting two 45° bends and one with 90° bend. It was observed that the least amount of breakage occurred in the straight pipe while the most breakage occurred at 90° bend pipe. Moreover, lower levels of breakage were observed in two 45° bend pipe than the 90° bend vi pipe configuration. In general, increasing the impact angle increases the degree of breakage. Additionally for the granules produced in the HSG, those produced at 300 rpm have the lowest breakage rates while the granules produced at 150 rpm have the highest breakage rates. This effect clearly the importance of shear history (during granule production) on breakage rates during subsequent processing. In terms of the FBG there was no single operating parameter that was deemed to have a significant effect on breakage during subsequent conveying. A population balance model was developed to analyse the particle breakage occurring during pneumatic conveying. The population balance equations that govern this breakage process are solved using discretization. The Markov chain method was used for the solution of PBEs for this process. This study found that increasing the air velocity (by increasing the air pressure to the rig), results in increased breakage among granola aggregates. Furthermore, the analysis carried out in this work provides that a greater degree of breakage of granola aggregates occur in line with an increase in bend angle.

Optimisation of granola breakfast cereal manufacturing process by wet granulation and pneumatic conveying

This study has considered the optimisation of granola breakfast cereal manufacturing processes by wet granulation and pneumatic conveying. Granola is an aggregated food product used as a breakfast cereal and in cereal bars. Processing of granola involves mixing the dry ingredients (typically oats, nuts, etc.) followed by the addition of a binder which can contain honey, water and/or oil. In this work, the design and operation of two parallel wet granulation processes to produce aggregate granola products were incorporated: a) a high shear mixing granulation process followed by drying/toasting in an oven. b) a continuous fluidised bed followed by drying/toasting in an oven. In high shear granulation the influence of process parameters on key granule aggregate quality attributes such as granule size distribution and textural properties of granola were investigated. The experimental results show that the impeller rotational speed is the single most important process parameter which influences granola physical and textural properties. After that binder addition rate and wet massing time also show significant impacts on granule properties. Increasing the impeller speed and wet massing time increases the median granule size while also presenting a positive correlation with density. The combination of high impeller speed and low binder addition rate resulted in granules with the highest levels of hardness and crispness. In the fluidised bed granulation process the effect of nozzle air pressure and binder spray rate on key aggregate quality attributes were studied. The experimental results show that a decrease in nozzle air pressure leads to larger in mean granule size. The combination of lowest nozzle air pressure and lowest binder spray rate results in granules with the highest levels of hardness and crispness. Overall, the high shear granulation process led to larger, denser, less porous and stronger (less likely to break) aggregates than the fluidised bed process. The study also examined the particle breakage of granola during pneumatic conveying produced by both the high shear granulation and the fluidised bed granulation process. Products were pneumatically conveyed in a purpose built conveying rig designed to mimic product conveying and packaging. Three different conveying rig configurations were employed; a straight pipe, a rig consisting two 45° bends and one with 90° bend. Particle breakage increases with applied pressure drop, and a 90° bend pipe results in more attrition for all conveying velocities relative to other pipe geometry. Additionally for the granules produced in the high shear granulator; those produced at the highest impeller speed, while being the largest also have the lowest levels of proportional breakage while smaller granules produced at the lowest impeller speed have the highest levels of breakage. This effect clearly shows the importance of shear history (during granule production) on breakage during subsequent processing. In terms of the fluidised bed granulation, there was no single operating parameter that was deemed to have a significant effect on breakage during subsequent conveying. Finally, a simple power law breakage model based on process input parameters was developed for both manufacturing processes. It was found suitable for predicting the breakage of granola breakfast cereal at various applied air velocities using a number of pipe configurations, taking into account shear histories.

Development of a triple stage heat transformer for the recycling of low temperature heat energy

Absorption heat transformers are thermodynamic systems which are capable of recycling industrial waste heat energy by increasing its temperature. Triple stage heat transformers (TAHTs) can increase the temperature of this waste heat by up to approximately 145˚C. The principle factors influencing the thermodynamic performance of a TAHT and general points of operating optima were identified using a multivariate statistical analysis, prior to using heat exchange network modelling techniques to dissect the design of the TAHT and systematically reassemble it in order to minimise internal exergy destruction within the unit. This enabled first and second law efficiency improvements of up to 18.8% and 31.5% respectively to be achieved compared to conventional TAHT designs. The economic feasibility of such a thermodynamically optimised cycle was investigated by applying it to an oil refinery in Ireland, demonstrating that in general the capital cost of a TAHT makes it difficult to achieve acceptable rates of return. Decreasing the TAHT's capital cost may be achieved by redesigning its individual pieces of equipment and reducing their size. The potential benefits of using a bubble column absorber were therefore investigated in this thesis. An experimental bubble column was constructed and used to track the collapse of steam bubbles being absorbed into a hotter lithium bromide salt solution. Extremely high mass transfer coefficients of approximately 0.0012m/s were observed, showing significant improvements over previously investigated absorbers. Two separate models were developed, namely a combined heat and mass transfer model describing the rate of collapse of the bubbles, and a stochastic model describing the hydrodynamic motion of the collapsing vapour bubbles taking into consideration random fluctuations observed in the experimental data. Both models showed good agreement with the collected data, and demonstrated that the difference between the solution's temperature and its boiling temperature is the primary factor influencing the absorber's performance.