The legitimation of risk and Bt cotton: a case study of Bantala village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, India

This article explores Ulrich Beck’s theorisation of risk society through focusing on the way in which the risk of Bt cotton is legitimated by six cultivators in Bantala, a village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, in India. The fieldwork for this study was conducted between June 2010 and March 2011, a duration chosen to coincide with a cotton season. The study explores the experience of the cultivators using the ‘categories of legitimation’ defined by Van Leeuwen. These are authorisation, moral evaluation, rationalisation and mythopoesis. As well as permitting an exploration of the legitimation of Bt cotton by cultivators themselves within the high-risk context of the Indian agrarian crisis, the categories also serve as an analytical framework with which to structure a discourse analysis of participant perspectives. The study examines the complex trade-off, which Renn argues the legitimation of ambiguous risk, such as that associated with Bt technology, entails. The research explores the way in which legitimation of the technology is informed by wider normative conceptualisations of development. This highlights that, in a context where indebtedness is strongly linked to farmer suicides, the potential of Bt cotton for poverty alleviation is traded against the uncertainty associated with the technology’s risks, which include its purported links to animal deaths. The study highlights the way in which the wider legitimation of a neoliberal approach to development in Andhra Pradesh serves to reinforce the choice of Bt cotton, and results in a depoliticisation of risk in Bantala. The research indicates, however, that this trade-off is subject to change over time, as economic benefits wane and risks accumulate. It also highlights the need for caution in relation to the proposed extension of Bt technology to food crops, such as Bt brinjal (aubergine).

The legitimation of risk and democracy: A case study of Bt cotton in Andhra Pradesh, India

This thesis explores the inter-related attempts to secure the legitimation of risk and democracy with regard to Bt cotton, a genetically modified crop, in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India. The research included nine months of ethnographic fieldwork, extensive library and newspaper research, as well as university attendance in India, undertaken between June, 2010 and March, 2011. This comparative study (involving organic, NPM and Bt cotton cultivation) was conducted in three villages in Telangana, a region which was granted secession from Andhra Pradesh in July, 2013, and in Hyderabad, the state capital. Andhra Pradesh is renowned for its agrarian crisis and farmer suicides, as well as for the conflict which Bt cotton represents. This study adopts the categories of legitimation developed by Van Leeuwen (2007; 2008) in order to explore the theory of risk society (Beck, 1992; 1994; 1999; 2009), and the Habermasian (1996: 356-366) core-periphery model as means of theoretically analysing democratic legitimacy. The legitimation of risk and democracy in relation to Bt cotton refers to normative views on the way in which power should be exercised with regard to risk differentiation, construction and definition. The analysis finds that the more legitimate the exercise of power, the lower the exposure to risk as a concern for the collective. This also has consequences for the way in which resources are distributed, knowledge constructed, and democratic praxis institutionalised as a concern for social and epistemic justice. The thesis argues that the struggle to legitimate risk and democracy has implications not only for the constitution of the new state of Telangana and the region’s development, but also for the emergence of global society and the future development of humanity as a whole.

Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds

We examine the role of liquidity risk, both as a stock characteristic as well as systematic liquidity risk, in UK mutual fund performance for the first time. Using four alternative measures of stock liquidity we extract principal components across stocks in order to construct systematic or market liquidity factors. We find that on average UK mutual funds are tilted towards liquid stocks (except for small stock funds as might be expected) but that, counter-intuitively, liquidity as a stock characteristic is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. We find that systematic liquidity risk is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. Overall, our results reveal a strong role for stock liquidity level and systematic liquidity risk in fund performance evaluation models.

The quality of financial information in the extractive industries: a value relevance analysis

The extractive industry is characterized by high levels of risk and uncertainty. These attributes create challenges when applying traditional accounting concepts (such as the revenue recognition and matching concepts) to the preparation of financial statements in the industry. The International Accounting Standards Board (2010) states that the objective of general purpose financial statements is to provide useful financial information to assist the capital allocation decisions of existing and potential providers of capital. The usefulness of information is defined as being relevant and faithfully represented so as to best aid in the investment decisions of capital providers. Value relevance research utilizes adaptations of the Ohlson (1995) to assess the attribute of value relevance which is one part of the attributes resulting in useful information. This study firstly examines the value relevance of the financial information disclosed in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings reveal that the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports depends on the circumstances of the firm including sector, size and profitability. Traditional accounting concepts such as the matching concept can be ineffective when applied to small firms who are primarily engaged in nonproduction activities that involve significant levels of uncertainty such as exploration activities or the development of sites. Standard setting bodies such as the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have addressed the financial reporting challenges in the extractive industry by allowing a significant amount of accounting flexibility in industryspecific accounting standards, particularly in relation to the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure. Therefore, secondly this study examines whether the choice of exploration accounting policy has an effect on the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports. The findings show that, in general, the Successful Efforts method produces value relevant information in the financial reports of profitable extractive firms. However, specifically in the oil & gas sector, the Full Cost method produces value relevant asset disclosures if the firm is lossmaking. This indicates that investors in production and non-production orientated firms have different information needs and these needs cannot be simultaneously fulfilled by a single accounting policy. In the mining sector, a preference by large profitable mining companies towards a more conservative policy than either the Full Cost or Successful Efforts methods does not result in more value relevant information being disclosed in the financial reports. This finding supports the fact that the qualitative characteristic of prudence is a form of bias which has a downward effect on asset values. The third aspect of this study is an examination of the effect of corporate governance on the value relevance of disclosures made in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings show that the key factor influencing the value relevance of financial information is the ability of the directors to select accounting policies which reflect the economic substance of the particular circumstances facing the firms in an effective way. Corporate governance is found to have an effect on value relevance, particularly in the oil & gas sector. However, there is no significant difference between the exploration accounting policy choices made by directors of firms with good systems of corporate governance and those with weak systems of corporate governance.

Epidemiology and comparative analysis of Yersinia in Ireland

Yersiniosis is an acute or chronic enteric zoonosis caused by enteropathogenic Yersinia species. Although yersiniosis is predominantly associated with gastroenteric forms of infection, extraintestinal forms are often reported from the elderly or patients with predisposing factors. Yersiniosis is often reported in countries with cold and mild climates (Northern and Central Europe, New Zealand and North of Russian Federation). The Irish Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) currently records only 3-7 notified cases of yersiniosis per year. At the same time pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica is recovered from pigs (main source of pathogenic Y. enterocolitica) at the levels similar to that observed in Yersinia endemic countries. Introduction of Yersinia selective culture procedures may increase Yersinia isolation rates. To establish whether the small number of notifications of human disease was an underestimate due to lack of specific selective culture for Yersinia we carried out a prospective culture study of faecal samples from outpatients with diarrhoea, with additional culture of appendix and throat swabs. Higher levels of anti-Yersinia seroprevalence than yersiniosis notification rates in endemic countries suggests that most yersiniosis cases are unrecognised by culture. Subsequently, in addition to a prospective culture study of clinical specimens, we carried out serological screening of Irish blood donors and environmental screening of human sewage. Pathogenic Yersinia strains were not isolated from 1,189 faeces samples, nor from 297 throat swabs, or 23 appendix swabs. This suggested that current low notification rates in Ireland are not due to the lack of specific Yersinia culture procedures. Molecular screening detected a wider variety of Y. enterocolitica-specific targets in pig slurry than in human sewage. A serological survey for antibodies against Yersinia YOP (Yersinia Outer Proteins) proteins in Irish blood donors found antibodies in 25%, with an age-related trend to increased seropositivity, compatible with the hypothesis that yersiniosis may have been more prevalent in Ireland in the recent past. Y. enterocolitica is a heterogeneous group of microorganisms that comprises strains with different degree of pathogenicity. Although non-pathogenic Y. enterocolitica lack conventional virulence factors, these strains can be isolated from patients with diarrhoea. Insecticidal Toxin Complex (ITC) and Cytolethal Distending Toxins can potentially contribute to the virulence of non-pathogenic Y. enterocolitica in the absence of other virulence factors. We compared distribution of ITC and CDT loci among pathogenic and non-pathogenic Y. enterocolitica. Additionally, to demonstrate potential pathogenicity of non-pathogenic Y. enterocolitica we compared their virulence towards Galleria mellonella larvae (a non-mammalian model of human bacterial infections) with the virulence of highly and mildly pathogenic Y. enterocolitica strains. Surprisingly, virulence of pathogenic and non-pathogenic Y. enterocolitica in Galleria mellonella larvae observed at 37°C did not correlate with their pathogenic potential towards humans. Comparative phylogenomic analysis detects predicted coding sequences (CDSs) that define host-pathogen interactions and hence providing insights into molecular evolution of bacterial virulence. Comparative phylogenomic analysis of microarray data generated in Y. enterocolitica strains isolated in the Great Britain from humans with diarrhoea and domestic animals revealed high genetic heterogeneity of these species. Because of the extensive human, animal and food exchanges between the UK and Ireland the objective of this study was to gain further insight into genetic heterogeneity and relationships among clinical and non-clinical Y. enterocolitica strains of various pathogenic potential isolated in Ireland and Great Britain. No evidence of direct transfer of strains between the two countries was found.

The design of curved optical waveguides : analytical and numerical analysis

A model for understanding the formation and propagation of modes in curved optical waveguides is developed. A numerical method for the calculation of curved waveguide mode profiles and propagation constants in two dimensional waveguides is developed, implemented and tested. A numerical method for the analysis of propagation of modes in three dimensional curved optical waveguides is developed, implemented and tested. A technique for the design of curved waveguides with reduced transition loss is presented. A scheme for drawing these new waveguides and ensuring that they have constant width is also provided. Claims about the waveguide design technique are substantiated through numerical simulations.

An investigation of implicit measurement techniques amongst low risk and forensic samples

There are difficulties with utilising self- report and physiological measures of assessment amongst forensic populations. This study investigates implicit based measures amongst sexual offenders, nonsexual offenders and low risk samples. Implicit measurement is a term applied to measurement methods that makes it difficult to influence responses through conscious control. The test battery includes the Implicit Association Test (IAT), Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP), Viewing Time (VT) and the Structured Clinical interview for disorders. The IAT proposes that people will perform better on a task when they depend on well-practiced cognitive associations. The RSVP task requires participants to identify a single target image that is presented amongst a series of rapidly presented visual images. RSVP operates on the premise that if two target images are presented within 500milliseconds of each other, the possibility that the participant will recognize the second target is significantly reduced when the first target is of salience to the individual. This is the attentional blink phenomenon. VT is based on the principle that people will look longer at images that are of salience. Results showed that on the VT task, child sexual offenders took longer to view images of children than low risk groups. Nude over clothed images induced a greater attentional blink amongst low risk and offending samples on the RSVP task. Sexual offenders took longer than low risk groups on word pairing tasks where sexual words were paired with adult words on the IAT. The SCID highlighted differences between the offending and non offending groups on the sub scales for personality disorders. More erotic stimulus items on the VT and RSVP measures is recommended to better differentiate sexual preference between offending and non offending samples. A pictorial IAT is recommended. Findings provide the basis for further development of implicit measures within the assessment of sexual offenders.

Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Beyond simple imaging with energetic beams – nanopatterning, correlative microscopy and statistical analysis of inclusions

Electron microscopy (EM) has advanced in an exponential way since the first transmission electron microscope (TEM) was built in the 1930’s. The urge to ‘see’ things is an essential part of human nature (talk of ‘seeing is believing’) and apart from scanning tunnel microscopes which give information about the surface, EM is the only imaging technology capable of really visualising atomic structures in depth down to single atoms. With the development of nanotechnology the demand to image and analyse small things has become even greater and electron microscopes have found their way from highly delicate and sophisticated research grade instruments to key-turn and even bench-top instruments for everyday use in every materials research lab on the planet. The semiconductor industry is as dependent on the use of EM as life sciences and pharmaceutical industry. With this generalisation of use for imaging, the need to deploy advanced uses of EM has become more and more apparent. The combination of several coinciding beams (electron, ion and even light) to create DualBeam or TripleBeam instruments for instance enhances the usefulness from pure imaging to manipulating on the nanoscale. And when it comes to the analytic power of EM with the many ways the highly energetic electrons and ions interact with the matter in the specimen there is a plethora of niches which evolved during the last two decades, specialising in every kind of analysis that can be thought of and combined with EM. In the course of this study the emphasis was placed on the application of these advanced analytical EM techniques in the context of multiscale and multimodal microscopy – multiscale meaning across length scales from micrometres or larger to nanometres, multimodal meaning numerous techniques applied to the same sample volume in a correlative manner. In order to demonstrate the breadth and potential of the multiscale and multimodal concept an integration of it was attempted in two areas: I) Biocompatible materials using polycrystalline stainless steel and II) Semiconductors using thin multiferroic films. I) The motivation to use stainless steel (316L medical grade) comes from the potential modulation of endothelial cell growth which can have a big impact on the improvement of cardio-vascular stents – which are mainly made of 316L – through nano-texturing of the stent surface by focused ion beam (FIB) lithography. Patterning with FIB has never been reported before in connection with stents and cell growth and in order to gain a better understanding of the beam-substrate interaction during patterning a correlative microscopy approach was used to illuminate the patterning process from many possible angles. Electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) was used to analyse the crystallographic structure, FIB was used for the patterning and simultaneously visualising the crystal structure as part of the monitoring process, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were employed to analyse the topography and the final step being 3D visualisation through serial FIB/SEM sectioning. II) The motivation for the use of thin multiferroic films stems from the ever-growing demand for increased data storage at lesser and lesser energy consumption. The Aurivillius phase material used in this study has a high potential in this area. Yet it is necessary to show clearly that the film is really multiferroic and no second phase inclusions are present even at very low concentrations – ~0.1vol% could already be problematic. Thus, in this study a technique was developed to analyse ultra-low density inclusions in thin multiferroic films down to concentrations of 0.01%. The goal achieved was a complete structural and compositional analysis of the films which required identification of second phase inclusions (through elemental analysis EDX(Energy Dispersive X-ray)), localise them (employing 72 hour EDX mapping in the SEM), isolate them for the TEM (using FIB) and give an upper confidence limit of 99.5% to the influence of the inclusions on the magnetic behaviour of the main phase (statistical analysis).