Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Nurses’ perceptions of nursing presence and the relationship between nursing presence and moral sensitivity in nurses working with people with dementia in residential care

Aim: The aim of this study was to measure nursing presence among nurses caring for people with dementia in residential care settings, and to investigate the relationship between nursing presence and moral sensitivity. Background: Nursing presence is a core relational skill in nursing and holds many benefits for nurses and their patients. Moral sensitivity is defined as how one recognises the moral elements of a situation, and how one’s moral or ethical decision making may impact on an individual. Methods: A descriptive, cross sectional quantitative methodology was used with a sample of 150 registered nurses. The Presence of Nursing Scale for Registered Nurses was used to investigate nursing presence, and the Moral Sensitivity Questionnaire for moral sensitivity. Results: Findings from the study demonstrated that participants agreed with the majority of elements of nursing presence, (mean 76.97, SD= 7.51). A mean score of 36.22 was evidence of a well developed level of moral sensitivity in participants. Nurses who perceived themselves to be highly present to their patients also scored highest on certain elements of moral sensitivity such as moral strength. Nursing presence was also found to be more developed in those participants that rated themselves as having higher levels of expertise based on Benner’s (1984) definitions. Older nurses also scored higher on nursing presence. There was a high level of agreement that factors such as lack of time (n=133), and heavy workload influenced nursing presence. Nurses, who were older and had longer clinical experience, were shown to have greater moral strength. There were differences in elements of moral sensitivity between groups of nurses who ranked themselves according to Benner’s (1984) competence framework with higher scores evident in the more expert groups. Conclusion: Overall, this study showed that participants had a well developed level of nursing presence, and certain elements of moral sensitivity are positively related to nursing presence. Nursing presence appears to be linked to the level of expertise of the nurse but factors such as time and workload do influence nursing presence.