3 resultados para Regression To The Mean
em CORA - Cork Open Research Archive - University College Cork - Ireland
Resumo:
Buried heat sources can be investigated by examining thermal infrared images and comparing these with the results of theoretical models which predict the thermal anomaly a given heat source may generate. Key factors influencing surface temperature include the geometry and temperature of the heat source, the surface meteorological environment, and the thermal conductivity and anisotropy of the rock. In general, a geothermal heat flux of greater than 2% of solar insolation is required to produce a detectable thermal anomaly in a thermal infrared image. A heat source of, for example, 2-300K greater than the average surface temperature must be a t depth shallower than 50m for the detection of the anomaly in a thermal infrared image, for typical terrestrial conditions. Atmospheric factors are of critical importance. While the mean atmospheric temperature has little significance, the convection is a dominant factor, and can act to swamp the thermal signature entirely. Given a steady state heat source that produces a detectable thermal anomaly, it is possible to loosely constrain the physical properties of the heat source and surrounding rock, using the surface thermal anomaly as a basis. The success of this technique is highly dependent on the degree to which the physical properties of the host rock are known. Important parameters include the surface thermal properties and thermal conductivity of the rock. Modelling of transient thermal situations was carried out, to assess the effect of time dependant thermal fluxes. One-dimensional finite element models can be readily and accurately applied to the investigation of diurnal heat flow, as with thermal inertia models. Diurnal thermal models of environments on Earth, the Moon and Mars were carried out using finite elements and found to be consistent with published measurements. The heat flow from an injection of hot lava into a near surface lava tube was considered. While this approach was useful for study, and long term monitoring in inhospitable areas, it was found to have little hazard warning utility, as the time taken for the thermal energy to propagate to the surface in dry rock (several months) in very long. The resolution of the thermal infrared imaging system is an important factor. Presently available satellite based systems such as Landsat (resolution of 120m) are inadequate for detailed study of geothermal anomalies. Airborne systems, such as TIMS (variable resolution of 3-6m) are much more useful for discriminating small buried heat sources. Planned improvements in the resolution of satellite based systems will broaden the potential for application of the techniques developed in this thesis. It is important to note, however, that adequate spatial resolution is a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful application of these techniques.
Resumo:
European badgers (Meles meles) are an important part of the Irish ecosystem; they are a component of Ireland’s native fauna and are afforded protection by national and international laws. The species is also a reservoir host for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and implicated in the epidemiology of bTB in cattle. Due to this latter point, badgers have been culled in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) in areas where persistent cattle bTB outbreaks exist. The population dynamics of badgers are therefore of great pure and applied interest. The studies within this thesis used large datasets and a number of analytical approaches to uncover essential elements of badger populations in the ROI. Furthermore, a review and meta-analysis of all available data on Irish badgers was completed to give a framework from which key knowledge gaps and future directions could be identified (Chapter 1). One main finding suggested that badger densities are significantly reduced in areas of repeated culling, as revealed through declining trends in signs of activity (Chapter 2) and capture numbers (Chapter 2 and Chapter 3). Despite this, the trappability of badgers was shown to be lower than previously thought. This indicates that management programmes would require repeated long-term efforts to be effective (Chapter 4). Mark-recapture modelling of a population (sample area: 755km2) suggested that mean badger density was typical of continental European populations, but substantially lower than British populations (Chapter 4). Badger movement patterns indicated that most of the population exhibited site fidelity. Long-distance movements were also recorded, the longest of which (20.1km) was the greatest displacement of an Irish badger currently known (Chapter 5). The studies presented in this thesis allows for the development of more robust models of the badger population at national scales (see Future Directions). Through the use of large-scale datasets future models will facilitate informed sustainable planning for disease control.
Resumo:
Defects in commercial cheese result in a downgrading of the final cheese and a consequential economic loss to the cheese producer. Developments of defects in cheese are often not fully understood and therefore not controllable by the producer. This research investigated the underlying factors in the development of split and secondary fermentation defect and of pinking defects in commercial Irish cheeses. Split defect in Swiss-type cheese is a common defect associated with eye formation and manifests as slits and cracks visible in the cut cheese loaf (Reinbold, 1972; Daly et al., 2010). No consensus exists as to the definitive causes of the defect and possible factors which may contribute to the defect were reviewed. Models were derived to describe the relationship between moisture, pH, and salt levels and the distance from sample location to the closest external block surface during cheese ripening. Significant gradients within the cheese blocks were observed for all measured parameters in cheeses at 7 day post/after manufacture. No significant pH gradient was found within the blocks on exit from hot-room ripening and at three months post exit from the hot-room. Moisture content reached equilibrium within the blocks between exit from hot-room and 3 months after exit from hot-room while salt and salt-to-moisture levels had not reached equilibrium within the cheese blocks even at three months after exit from hot-room ripening. A characterisation of Swiss-type cheeses produced from a seasonal milk supply was undertaken. Cheeses were sampled on two days per month of the production year, at three different times during the manufacturing day, at internal and external regions of the cheese block and at four ripening time points (7 days post manufacture, post hot-room, 14 days post hot-room and 3 months in a cold room after exit from hot-room). Compositional, biochemical and microbial indices were determined, and the results were analysed as a splitplot with a factorial arrangement of treatments (season, time of day, area) on the main plot and ripening time on the sub-plot. Season (and interactions) had a significant effect on pH and salt-in-moisture levels (SM), mean viable counts of L. helveticus, propionic acid and non-starter lactic acid bacteria, levels of primary and secondary proteolysis and cheese firmness. Levels of proteolysis increased significantly during hot-room ripening but also during cold room storage, signifying continued development of cheese ripening during cold storage (> 8°C). Rheological parameters (e.g. springiness and cohesiveness) were significantly affected by interactions between ripening and location within cheese blocks. Time of day of manufacture significantly affected mean cheese calcium levels at 7 days post manufacture and mean levels of arginine and mean viable counts of NSLAB. Cheeses produced during the middle of the production day had the best grading scores and were more consistent compared to cheeses produced early or late during day of manufacture. Cheeses with low levels of S/M and low values of resilience were associated with poor grades at 7 days post manufacture. Chesses which had high elastic index values and low values of springiness in the external areas after exit from hot-room ripening also obtained good commercial grades. Development of a pink colour defect is an intermittent defect in ripened cheese which may or may not contain an added colourant, e.g., annatto. Factors associated with the defect were reviewed. Attempts at extraction and identification of the pink discolouration were unsuccessful. The pink colour partitioned with the water insoluble protein fraction. No significant difference was observed between ripened control and defect cheese for oxygen levels and redox potential or for the results of elemental analysis. A possible relationship between starter activity and defect development was established in cheeses with added coulourant, as lower levels of residual galactose and lactose were observed in defective cheese compared to control cheese free of the defect. Swiss-type cheese without added colourant had significantly higher levels of arginine and significantly lower lactate levels. Flow cell cytometry indicated that levels of bacterial cell viability and metabolic state differed between control and defect cheeses (without added colourant). Pyrosequencing analysis of cheese samples with and without the defect detected the previously unreported bacteria in cheese, Deinococcus thermus (a potential carotenoid producer). Defective Swiss-type cheeses had elevated levels of Deinococcus thermus compared to control cheeses, however the direct cause of pink was not linked to this bacterium alone. Overall, research was undertaken on underlying factors associated with the development of specific defects in commercial cheese, but also characterised the dynamic changes in key microbial and physicochemical parameters during cheese ripening and storage. This will enable the development of processing technologies to enable seasonal manipulation of manufacture protocols to minimise compositional and biochemical variability and to reduce and inhibit the occurrence of specific quality defects.