Biodiversity change in the Irish uplands - the effects of grazing management

As a prominent form of land use across much of upland Europe, extensive livestock grazing may hold the key to the sustainable management of these landscapes. Recent agricultural policy reform, however, has resulted in a decline in upland sheep numbers, prompting concern for the biodiversity value of these areas. This study quantifies the effects of varying levels of grazing management on plant, ground beetle and breeding bird diversity and assemblage in the uplands and lowlands of hill sheep farms in County Kerry, Ireland. Farms represent a continuum of light to heavy grazing, measured using a series of field indicators across several habitats, such as the internationally important blanket bog, home to the ground beetle, Carabus clatratus. Linear mixed effects modelling and non-metric multidimensional scaling are employed to disentangle the most influential management and environmental factors. Grazing state may be determined by the presence of Molinia caerulea or Nardus stricta, and variables such as % traditional ewes, % vegetation litter and % scrub prove valuable indicators of diversity. Measures of ecosystem functioning, e.g. plant biomass (nutrient cycling) and % vegetation cover (erosion rates) are influenced by plant diversity, which is influenced by grazing management. Levels of the ecosystem service, soil organic carbon, vary with ground beetle abundance and diversity, potentially influencing carbon sequestration and thereby climate change. The majority of species from all three taxa are found in the lowlands, with the exception of birds such as meadow pipit and skylark. The scale of measurement should be determined by the size and mobility of the species in question. The challenge is to manage these high nature value landscapes using agri-environment schemes which enhance biodiversity by maintaining structural heterogeneity across a range of scales, altitudes and habitats whilst integrating the decisions of people living and working in these marginal areas.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Self-management education for cystic fibrosis

Background: Self-management education may help patients with cystic fibrosis and their families to choose, monitor and adjust treatment requirements for their illness, and also to manage the effects of illness on their lives. Although self-management education interventions have been developed for cystic fibrosis, no previous systematic review of the evidence of effectiveness of these interventions has been conducted. Objectives: To assess the effects of self-management education interventions on improving health outcomes for patients with cystic fibrosis and their caregivers. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Trials Register (date of the last search: 22 August 2013). We also searched databases through EBSCO (CINAHL; Psychological and Behavioural Sciences Collection; PsychInfo; SocINDEX) and Elsevier (Embase) and handsearched relevant journals and conference proceedings (date of the last searches: 01 February 2014 ). Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials, quasi-randomised controlled trials or controlled clinical trials comparing different types of self-management education for cystic fibrosis or comparing self-management education with standard care or no intervention. Data collection and analysis: Two authors assessed trial eligibility and risk of bias. Three authors extracted data. Main results: Four trials (involving a total of 269 participants) were included. The participants were children with cystic fibrosis and their parents or caregivers in three trials and adults with cystic fibrosis in one trial. The trials compared four different self-management education interventions versus standard treatment: (1) a training programme for managing cystic fibrosis in general; (2) education specific to aerosol and airway clearance treatments; (3) disease-specific nutrition education; and (4) general and disease-specific nutrition education. Training children to manage cystic fibrosis in general had no statistically significant effects on weight after six to eight weeks, mean difference -7.74 lb (i.e. 3.51 kg) (95% confidence interval -35.18 to 19.70). General and disease-specific nutrition education for adults had no statistically significant effects on: pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume at one second), mean difference -5.00 % (95% confidence interval -18.10 to 8.10) at six months and mean difference -5.50 % (95% confidence interval -18.46 to 7.46) at 12 months; or weight, mean difference - 0.70 kg (95% confidence interval -6.58 to 5.18) at six months and mean difference -0.70 kg (95% confidence interval -6.62 to 5.22) at 12 months; or dietary fat intake scores, mean difference 1.60 (85% confidence interval -2.90 to 6.10) at six months and mean difference 0.20 (95% confidence interval -4.08 to 4.48) at 12 months. There is some limited evidence to suggest that self-management education may improve knowledge in patients with cystic fibrosis but not in parents or caregivers. There is also some limited evidence to suggest that self-management education may result in positively changing a small number of behaviours in both patients and caregivers. Authors' conclusions: The available evidence from this review is of insufficient quantity and quality to draw any firm conclusions about the effects of self-management education for cystic fibrosis. Further trials are needed to investigate the effects of self-management education on a range of clinical and behavioural outcomes in children, adolescents and adults with cystic fibrosis and their caregivers.

Development of an intervention to support medication management in patients with multimorbidity in primary care

The overarching aim of this thesis was to develop an intervention to support patient-centred prescribing in the context of multimorbidity in primary care. Methods A range of research methods were used to address different components of the Medical Research Council, UK (MRC) guidance on the development and evaluation of complex interventions in health care. The existing evidence on GPs’ perceptions of the management of multimorbidity was systematically reviewed. In qualitative interviews, chart-stimulated recall was used to explore the challenges experienced by GPs when prescribing for multimorbid patients. In a cross-sectional study, the psychosocial issues that complicate the management of multimorbidity were examined. To develop the complex intervention, the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) was used to integrate behavioural theory with the findings of these three studies. A feasibility study of the new intervention was then conducted with GPs. Results The systematic review revealed four domains of clinical practice where GPs experienced difficulties in multimorbidity. The qualitative interview study showed that GPs responded to these difficulties by ‘satisficing’. In multimorbid patients perceived as stable, GPs preferred to ‘maintain the status quo’ rather than actively change medications. In the cross-sectional study, the significant association between multimorbidity and negative psychosocial factors was shown. These findings informed the development of the ‘Multimorbidity Collaborative Medication Review and Decision-making’ (MY COMRADE) intervention. The intervention involves peer support: two GPs review the medications prescribed to a complex multimorbid patient together. In the feasibility study, GPs reported that the intervention was appropriate for the context of general practice; was widely applicable to their patients with multimorbidity; and recommendations for optimising medications arose from all collaborative reviews. Conclusion Applying theory to empirical data has led to an intervention that is implementable in clinical practice, and has the potential to positively change GPs’ behaviour in the management of medications for patients with multimorbidity.