Exploring the relationship between patterns of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and cardiometabolic health in middle-aged Irish adults

Background and Study Rationale Being physically active is a major contributor to both physical and mental health. More specifically, being physically active lowers risk of coronary heart disease, high blood pressure, stroke, metabolic syndrome (MetS), diabetes, certain cancers and depression, and increases cognitive function and wellbeing. The physiological mechanisms that occur in response to physical activity and the impact of total physical activity and sedentary behaviour on cardiometabolic health have been extensively studied. In contrast, limited data evaluating the specific effects of daily and weekly patterns of physical behaviour on cardiometabolic health exist. Additionally, no other study has examined interrelated patterns and minute-by-minute accumulation of physical behaviour throughout the day across week days in middle-aged adults. Study Aims The overarching aims of this thesis are firstly to describe patterns of behaviour throughout the day and week, and secondly to explore associations between these patterns and cardiometabolic health in a middle-aged population. The specific objectives are to: 1 Compare agreement between the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) and GENEActiv accelerometer-derived moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) activity and secondly to compare their associations with a range of cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers in middle-aged adults. 2 Determine a suitable monitoring frame needed to reliably capture weekly, accelerometer-measured, activity in our population. 3 Identify groups of participants who have similar weekly patterns of physical behaviour, and determine if underlying patterns of cardiometabolic profiles exist among these groups. 4 Explore the variation of physical behaviour throughout the day to identify whether daily patterns of physical behaviour vary by cardiometabolic health. Methods All results in this thesis are based on data from a subsample of the Mitchelstown Cohort; 475 (46.1% males; mean aged 59.7±5.5 years) middle-aged Irish adults. Subjective physical activity levels were assessed using the IPAQ-SF. Participants wore the wrist GENEActiv accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. Data was collected at 100Hz and summarised into a signal magnitude vector using 60s epochs. Each time interval was categorised based on validated cut-offs. Data on cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers was collected according to standard protocol. Cardiometabolic outcomes (obesity, diabetes, hypertension and MetS) were defined according to internationally recognised definitions by World Health Organisation (WHO) and Irish Diabetes Federation (IDF). Results The results of the first chapter suggest that the IPAQ-SF lacks the sensitivity to assess patterning of activity and guideline adherence and assessing the relationship with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. Furthermore, GENEActiv accelerometer-derived MVPA appears to be better at detecting relationships with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. The second chapter examined variations in day-to-day physical behaviour levels between- and within-subjects. The main findings were that Sunday differed from all other days in the week for sedentary behaviour and light activity and that a large within-subject variation across days of the week for vigorous activity exists. Our data indicate that six days of monitoring, four weekdays plus Saturday and Sunday, are required to reliably estimate weekly habitual activity in all activity intensities. In the next chapter, latent profile analysis of weekly, interrelated patterns of physical behaviour identified four distinct physical behaviour patterns; Sedentary Group (15.9%), Sedentary; Lower Activity Group (28%), Sedentary; Higher Activity Group (44.2%) and a Physically Active Group (11.9%). Overall the Sedentary Group had poorer outcomes, characterised by unfavourable cardiometabolic and inflammatory profiles. The remaining classes were characterised by healthier cardiometabolic profiles with lower sedentary behaviour levels. The final chapter, which aimed to compare daily cumulative patterns of minute-by-minute physical behaviour intensities across those with and without MetS, revealed significant differences in weekday and weekend day MVPA. In particular, those with MetS start accumulating MVPA later in the day and for a shorted day period. Conclusion In conclusion, the results of this thesis add to the evidence base regards an optimal monitoring period for physical behaviour measurement to accurately capture weekly physical behaviour patterns. In addition, the results highlight whether weekly and daily distribution of activity is associated with cardiometabolic health and inflammatory profiles. The key findings of this thesis demonstrate the importance of daily and weekly physical behaviour patterning of activity intensity in the context of cardiometabolic health risk. In addition, these findings highlight the importance of using physical behaviour patterns of free-living adults observed in a population-based study to inform and aid health promotion activity programmes and primary care prevention and treatment strategies and development of future tailored physical activity based interventions.

Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

Objective: To estimate the absolute treatment effect of statin therapy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death) for the individual patient aged C70 years. Methods: Prediction models for MACE were derived in patients aged C70 years with (n = 2550) and without (n = 3253) vascular disease from the ‘‘PROspective Study of Pravastatin in Elderly at Risk’’ (PROSPER) trial and validated in the ‘‘Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease’’ (SMART) cohort study (n = 1442) and the ‘‘Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid Lowering Arm’’ (ASCOT-LLA) trial (n = 1893), respectively, using competing risk analysis. Prespecified predictors were various clinical characteristics including statin treatment. Individual absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for MACE in 5 and 10 years were estimated by subtracting ontreatment from off-treatment risk. Results: Individual ARRs were higher in elderly patients with vascular disease [5-year ARRs: median 5.1 %, interquartile range (IQR) 4.0–6.2 %, 10-year ARRs: median 7.8 %, IQR 6.8–8.6 %] than in patients without vascular disease (5-year ARRs: median 1.7 %, IQR 1.3–2.1 %, 10-year ARRs: 2.9 %, IQR 2.3–3.6 %). Ninetyeight percent of patients with vascular disease had a 5-year ARR C2.0 %, compared to 31 % of patients without vascular disease. Conclusions: With a multivariable prediction model the absolute treatment effect of a statin on MACE for individual elderly patients with and without vascular disease can be quantified. Because of high ARRs, treating all patients is more beneficial than prediction-based treatment for secondary prevention of MACE. For primary prevention of MACE, the prediction model can be used to identify those patients who benefit meaningfully from statin therapy.

Established cardiovascular disease and CVD risk factors in a primary care population of middle-aged Irish men and women

Contemporary Irish data on the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are sparse. The primary aims of this study were (1) to estimate the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, in the general population of men and women between the ages of 50 and 69 years; and (2) to estimate the proportion of individuals in this age group at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events on the basis of pre-existing cardiovascular disease or as defined by the Framingham equation. Participants were drawn from the practice lists of 17 general practices in Cork and Kerry using stratified random sampling. A total of 1018 people attended for screening (490 men, 48%) from 1473 who were invited, a response rate of 69.1%. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and glucose intolerance are common in the population of men and women aged between 50 and 69 years. Almost half the participants were overweight and a further quarter met current international criteria for obesity, one of the highest recorded prevalence rates for obesity in a European population sample. Forty per cent of the population reported minimal levels of physical activity and 19% were current cigarette smokers. Approximately half the sample had blood pressure readings consistent with international criteria for the diagnosis of hypertension, but only 38% of these individuals were known to be hypertensive. Eighty per cent of the population sample had a cholesterol concentration in excess of 5 mmol/l. Almost 4% of the population had Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, of whom 30% were previously undiagnosed. A total of 137 participants (13.5%) had a history or ECG findings consistent with established cardiovascular disease. Of the remaining 881 individuals in the primary prevention population, a total of 20 high-risk individuals (19 male) had a risk of a coronary heart disease event 30% over ten years according to the Framingham risk equation, giving an overall population prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3 - 3.0). At a risk level 20% over ten years, an additional 91 individuals (8.9%) were identified. Thus a total of 24.4% of the population were at risk either through pre-existing CVD (13.5%) or an estimated 10-year risk exceeding 20% according to the Framingham risk equation (10.9%). Thus a substantial proportion of middle-aged men are at high risk of CVD. The findings emphasise the scale of the CVD epidemic in Ireland and the need for ongoing monitoring of risk factors at the population level and the need to develop preventive strategies at both the clinical and societal level.

Perceived risk of death in older primary care patients

There is a large gap between life expectancy and healthy life years at age 65. To reduce this gap, it is necessary that people with medical concerns perceived at higher risk of adverse outcomes are readily identified and treated. The same goes for the need to implement prevention plans. The main objectives of this study are to, in a first step, (a) estimate the percentage of medical concerns, (b) identify factors associated with this concern; in a second step, (c) estimate the perceived risk of death, and (d) evaluate the ability of medical concerns to predict this risk. Results show that the existence and severity of medical concerns are crucial in the prediction of perceived risk of death. Early identification of severity of medical concerns and the availability and adequacy of informal caregiving should allow healthcare professionals to promptly initiate an appropriate assessment and treatment of older patients.