Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

The influence of neoliberal thought on contemporary politics: an examination of the interrelationships between ideological hegemony, neoliberal thought and contemporary politics

This thesis critically assesses the impact of neoliberal ideology on liberal thought and contemporary politics specifically examining the question, To what extent has neoliberalism, as elucidated originally by Hayek affected change in contemporary politics? This question is crucial to understanding the nature, role, influence and impact of neoliberal ideas. This investigation required a broad engagement with the literature, identifying and discussing the relationships within neoliberalism allowing a clearer understanding of the role of ideas in neoliberalism’s continuing hegemony. The methodological approach adopted a social constructivist character that encompassed an individual centric emphasis, acknowledging the breadth and complexity of Neoliberalization through the use of interpretive repertoires. The initial chapters examine the ideational process and the role of particular understanding in motivating political conduct. In this context of the transfer of ideas through their everyday resonance eventually becoming ‘stubborn social facts’ (Habermas 2006:413) is highlighted. Later chapters discuss the historical and economic context of Neoliberalization focussing on the role of the hegemon and its influence, outlining and evaluating the contribution of Hayek to liberal thought. The penultimate chapter deals with the contemporary situation and the irony associated with Hayek’s original ideas. Concluding, several findings emerged contributing by combining available knowledge in a uniquely fresh way and generating originality by linking old ideas, new ideas and new facts. The results are grouped as, - Pragmatic, recognising that political pragmatism trumps ideological aspiration where liberal democratic processes require politicians are held to account. - Realistic, recognising the contrast and irony between political action and ideological insight reflected in the operationalization of neoliberalism. - General, recognising Hayek’s on-going but increasingly indirect influence. The thesis finishes with a short aside on ideational change within the context of the current crisis and advocates an introspective approach that includes entrepreneurial spirit, good conscience and duty as part of future deliberations.

The transformation of Ireland 1958 - 93: the role of ideas in punctuating institutional path dependency at critical junctures

Ireland experienced two critical junctures when its economic survival was threatened: 1958/9 and 1986/7. Common to both crises was the supplanting of long established practices, that had become an integral part of the political culture of the state, by new ideas that ensured eventual economic recovery. In their adoption and implementation these ideas also fundamentally changed the institutions of state – how politics was done, how it was organised and regulated. The end result was the transformation of the Irish state. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that at those critical junctures the political and administrative elites who enabled economic recovery were not just making pragmatic decisions, their actions were influenced by ideas. Systematic content analysis of the published works of the main ideational actors, together with primary interviews with those actors still alive, reveals how their ideas were formed, what influenced them, and how they set about implementing their ideas. As the hypothesis assumes institutional change over time historical institutionalism serves as the theoretical framework. Central to this theory is the idea that choices made when a policy is being initiated or an institution formed will have a continuing influence long into the future. Institutions of state become ‘path dependent’ and impervious to change – the forces of inertia take over. That path dependency is broken at critical junctures. At those moments ideas play a major role as they offer a set of ready-made solutions. Historical institutionalism serves as a robust framework for proving that in the transformation of Ireland the role of ideas in punctuating institutional path dependency at critical junctures was central.

Practical programming for static average-case analysis: the MOQA investigation

This work considers the static calculation of a program’s average-case time. The number of systems that currently tackle this research problem is quite small due to the difficulties inherent in average-case analysis. While each of these systems make a pertinent contribution, and are individually discussed in this work, only one of them forms the basis of this research. That particular system is known as MOQA. The MOQA system consists of the MOQA language and the MOQA static analysis tool. Its technique for statically determining average-case behaviour centres on maintaining strict control over both the data structure type and the labeling distribution. This research develops and evaluates the MOQA language implementation, and adds to the functions already available in this language. Furthermore, the theory that backs MOQA is generalised and the range of data structures for which the MOQA static analysis tool can determine average-case behaviour is increased. Also, some of the MOQA applications and extensions suggested in other works are logically examined here. For example, the accuracy of classifying the MOQA language as reversible is investigated, along with the feasibility of incorporating duplicate labels into the MOQA theory. Finally, the analyses that take place during the course of this research reveal some of the MOQA strengths and weaknesses. This thesis aims to be pragmatic when evaluating the current MOQA theory, the advancements set forth in the following work and the benefits of MOQA when compared to similar systems. Succinctly, this work’s significant expansion of the MOQA theory is accompanied by a realistic assessment of MOQA’s accomplishments and a serious deliberation of the opportunities available to MOQA in the future.

Early warning sign attributes for the safety of drinking water treatment works

A proactive risk management strategy seeks to prevent accidents from taking place and maintain the safety of a system. In this context, the task of identifying and disseminating early warning signs and signals is among the most important. The problem is that warning signs that are present before an accident takes place are often being overlooked and not picked up or identified as warning signs. If these warning signs were responded to, then an accident may be averted. Accidents occuring in the critical domain of a drinking water treatments works can have serious implications for the public health of consumers of the water supplied. Realising and comprehending early warning signs is a major challenge for the domain of systems safety and especially in the domain of a water treatment works. The approaches that are typically used to enhance the realisation, comprehension and dissemination of early warning signs in the water treatment domain in Ireland mainly involves the creation of accident scenarios, the use of monitoring data and procedures for the dissemination of warnings. While all of these approaches are all useful to inform the mental or process models of possible accident scenarios, nevertheless, accidents are still occurring in this domain. Therefore, a new approach to enhance the comprehension of and effective dissemination of early warning signs is required in order to improve safety and proactive risk management strategies. The contributions of this thesis is the provision of a set of attributes associated with the early warning sign concept that provides meaningful data on the early warning signs and allows recipients to better comprehend them. The values of these attributes were customised for application in the water treatment domain. This research proves that early warning signs at a water treatment works received with information on their attributes are comprehended and communicated more effectively and efficiently than the usual pragmatic approach and thereby improves the safety and proactive risk management strategies.

State building as strategy: An interrogation of NATO's comprehensive approach in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011

The core of this thesis is the study of NATO’s Comprehensive Approach strategy to state building in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011. It argues that this strategy sustained operational and tactical practices which were ineffective in responding to the evolved nature of the security problem. The thesis interrogates the Comprehensive Approach along ontological, empirical and epistemological lines and concludes that the failure of the Comprehensive Approach in the specific Afghan case is, in fact, indicative of underlying theoretical and pragmatic flaws which, therefore, generalize the dilemma. The research is pragmatic in nature, employing mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) concurrently. Qualitative methods include research into primary and secondary literature sources supplemented with the author’s personal experiences in Afghanistan in 2008 and various NATO HQ and Canadian settings. Quantitative research includes an empirical case study focussing on NATO’s Afghan experience and its attempt at state building between 2006 and 2011. This study incorporates a historical review of NATO’s evolutionary involvement in Afghanistan incorporating the subject timeframe; offers an analysis of human development and governance related data mapped to expected outcomes of the Afghan National Development Strategy and NATO’s comprehensive campaign design; and interrogates the Comprehensive Approach strategy by means of an analysis of conceptual, institutional and capability gaps in the context of an integrated investigational framework. The results of the case study leads to an investigation of a series of research questions related to the potential impact of the failure of the Comprehensive Approach for NATO in Afghanistan and the limits of state building as a means of attaining security for the Alliance.

The endless search for SA: spiritual ideology in Hindustāni music

This dissertation centres on philosophical attitudes presented by North Indian classical musicians in relation to the concept and experience of rāga improvisation. In Hindustāni music, there is a dynamic tension ideology and pragmatism, devotion and entertainment, fixity and improvisational freedom, and cognition and visceral experience. On one hand, rāga is an embodied methodological template for the creation of music. On the other hand, rāga improvisation is conceptualised as a path to metaphysical experience and as an evocation of an ineffable divine presence. A masterful rendition of rāga is both a re-enactment of a systematic prescribed formula and a spontaneous flow of consciousness. This study presents these apparent dichotomies to highlight ideological concerns, while simultaneously contextualising philosophical idealism in relation to pragmatic realities. A central paradigm is the manner in which pragmatic concerns are elevated in status and given spiritual significance. The dissertation begins with a view into historical and religious context. The discussion continues with a speculative investigation positing co-relations between Hindustāni music and central tenets of Indian philosophy, considering how rāga improvisation may manifest as a philosophy of sound. The study then explores the concept of rāga, a modal and conceptual construct that forms the heart of Indian classical music. The final three sections ground the subject of spiritual ideology within the life experience of Hindustāni musicians: ‘Transmission’ looks at the learning and enculturation process, which encapsulates values intrinsic to the ethos of Hindustāni music culture. ‘Practice’ explores the discipline, science and experience of musical practice, revealing core ideological concerns connecting spirituality to musical experience; and ‘Performance’ examines the live presentation of rāga improvisation, and the relationship between music as ‘entertainment’ and music as ‘devotion’. Both ethnographic and musicological, this research is the culmination of various fieldtrips to India, extensive interviews with Hindustāni musicians, fifteen year’s sitār training, and the study of relevant musicological and philosophical texts.

Prostate cancer treatment as an embodied rite of passage: impotence and incontinence as challenges to status reversal and reintegration

Introduction and Rationale: A central argument in the thesis is that performative acts of control, sexual potency and spontaneity are central to the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities. The acts of control, and particularly issues of spontaneity, are central to understandings and addressing the difficulties men face at varying levels of embodied identity. Using Watson’s (2000) ‘Male body schema’, I will explore the challenges and opportunities men face when negotiating normative, pragmatic, and experiential embodiment. I will later then explore the importance of these levels of embodiment to achieving visceral embodiment; or what I would define as a renewed unconscious satisfaction and ability to achieve and maintain normative, pragmatic and experiential forms of embodiment. Purpose and Objectives: Using the concept of liminality, and permanent liminality, the thesis explores how we can interpret and understand men’s experience of prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, and their struggle to regain power and control in the context of diagnosis, and also the side effects to treatment. The strategies men adopt in seeking out personalised medical programmes of treatment with their doctors are explored in detail. The power and control that can be exercised over medical professionals and treatment options is demonstrated. Method: Collecting responses online from prostate specific discussion boards via gatekeepers, and from interviews on the ‘health talk’ online database, three intersecting conceptual categories - liminality, masculinity and the body/embodiment - are combined in this research. Liminality and ‘time’ are directly linked to notions of ‘success’ and ‘outcome’ during the treatment process, and mark distinct points at which men, and their families, expect measures or limits to have been reached. Exploring liminality within the context of Turner’s ‘rites of passage’, I explore the difficulty men face in concluding the third stage of the rites; reintegration. Results: Prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, impotence and incontinence, in particular, have profound implications for the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities, and thus identity in general, making the construction of hegemonic ideals in the context of a highly ‘performative’ society highly troublesome. The issue of ‘spontaneity’ in the construction of various forms of embodied identities is of particular concern for men who contributed to this study.