Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Systematic delay-driven power optimisation and power-driven delay optimisation of combinational circuits

With the proliferation of mobile wireless communication and embedded systems, the energy efficiency becomes a major design constraint. The dissipated energy is often referred as the product of power dissipation and the input-output delay. Most of electronic design automation techniques focus on optimising only one of these parameters either power or delay. Industry standard design flows integrate systematic methods of optimising either area or timing while for power consumption optimisation one often employs heuristics which are characteristic to a specific design. In this work we answer three questions in our quest to provide a systematic approach to joint power and delay Optimisation. The first question of our research is: How to build a design flow which incorporates academic and industry standard design flows for power optimisation? To address this question, we use a reference design flow provided by Synopsys and integrate in this flow academic tools and methodologies. The proposed design flow is used as a platform for analysing some novel algorithms and methodologies for optimisation in the context of digital circuits. The second question we answer is: Is possible to apply a systematic approach for power optimisation in the context of combinational digital circuits? The starting point is a selection of a suitable data structure which can easily incorporate information about delay, power, area and which then allows optimisation algorithms to be applied. In particular we address the implications of a systematic power optimisation methodologies and the potential degradation of other (often conflicting) parameters such as area or the delay of implementation. Finally, the third question which this thesis attempts to answer is: Is there a systematic approach for multi-objective optimisation of delay and power? A delay-driven power and power-driven delay optimisation is proposed in order to have balanced delay and power values. This implies that each power optimisation step is not only constrained by the decrease in power but also the increase in delay. Similarly, each delay optimisation step is not only governed with the decrease in delay but also the increase in power. The goal is to obtain multi-objective optimisation of digital circuits where the two conflicting objectives are power and delay. The logic synthesis and optimisation methodology is based on AND-Inverter Graphs (AIGs) which represent the functionality of the circuit. The switching activities and arrival times of circuit nodes are annotated onto an AND-Inverter Graph under the zero and a non-zero-delay model. We introduce then several reordering rules which are applied on the AIG nodes to minimise switching power or longest path delay of the circuit at the pre-technology mapping level. The academic Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool ABC is used for the manipulation of AND-Inverter Graphs. We have implemented various combinatorial optimisation algorithms often used in Electronic Design Automation such as Simulated Annealing and Uniform Cost Search Algorithm. Simulated Annealing (SMA) is a probabilistic meta heuristic for the global optimization problem of locating a good approximation to the global optimum of a given function in a large search space. We used SMA to probabilistically decide between moving from one optimised solution to another such that the dynamic power is optimised under given delay constraints and the delay is optimised under given power constraints. A good approximation to the global optimum solution of energy constraint is obtained. Uniform Cost Search (UCS) is a tree search algorithm used for traversing or searching a weighted tree, tree structure, or graph. We have used Uniform Cost Search Algorithm to search within the AIG network, a specific AIG node order for the reordering rules application. After the reordering rules application, the AIG network is mapped to an AIG netlist using specific library cells. Our approach combines network re-structuring, AIG nodes reordering, dynamic power and longest path delay estimation and optimisation and finally technology mapping to an AIG netlist. A set of MCNC Benchmark circuits and large combinational circuits up to 100,000 gates have been used to validate our methodology. Comparisons for power and delay optimisation are made with the best synthesis scripts used in ABC. Reduction of 23% in power and 15% in delay with minimal overhead is achieved, compared to the best known ABC results. Also, our approach is also implemented on a number of processors with combinational and sequential components and significant savings are achieved.

On thermodynamics in the primary power conversion of oscillating water column wave energy converters

The paper presents an investigation to the thermodynamics of the air flow in the air chamber for the oscillating water column wave energy converters, in which the oscillating water surface in the water column pressurizes or de-pressurises the air in the chamber. To study the thermodynamics and the compressibility of the air in the chamber, a method is developed in this research: the power take-off is replaced with an accepted semi-empirical relationship between the air flow rate and the oscillating water column chamber pressure, and the thermodynamic process is simplified as an isentropic process. This facilitates the use of a direct expression for the work done on the power take-off by the flowing air and the generation of a single differential equation that defines the thermodynamic process occurring inside the air chamber. Solving the differential equation, the chamber pressure can be obtained if the interior water surface motion is known or the chamber volume (thus the interior water surface motion) if the chamber pressure is known. As a result, the effects of the air compressibility can be studied. Examples given in the paper have shown the compressibility, and its effects on the power losses for large oscillating water column devices.

Piezoelectric energy harvesting using blood-flow-like excitation for implantable devices

The goal of this research is to produce a system for powering medical implants to increase the lifetime of the implanted devices and reduce the battery size. The system consists of a number of elements – the piezoelectric material for generating power, the device design, the circuit for rectification and energy storage. The piezoelectric material is analysed and a process for producing a repeatable high quality piezoelectric material is described. A full width half maximum (FWHM) of the rocking curve X-Ray diffraction (XRD) scan of between ~1.5° to ~1.7° for test wafers was achieved. This is state of the art for AlN on silicon and means devices with good piezoelectric constants can be fabricated. Finite element modelling FEM) was used to design the structures for energy harvesting. The models developed in this work were established to have an accuracy better than 5% in terms of the difference between measured and modelled results. Devices made from this material were analysed for power harvesting ability as well as the effect that they have on the flow of liquid which is an important consideration for implantable devices. The FEM results are compared to experimental results from laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), magnetic shaker and perfusion machine tests. The rectifying circuitry for the energy harvester was also investigated. The final solution uses multiple devices to provide the power to augment the battery and so this was a key feature to be considered. Many circuits were examined and a solution based on a fully autonomous circuit was advanced. This circuit was analysed for use with multiple low power inputs similar to the results from previous investigations into the energy harvesting devices. Polymer materials were also studied for use as a substitute for the piezoelectric material as well as the substrate because silicon is more brittle.

The Resurgence of Gaelic power in Ireland and Scotland and its wider impact, c.1350-1513

Over the course of the later Middle Ages nearly half the landmass of the British Isles fell under the control of a handful of Gaelic dynasties in Ireland and Scotland. The impact of this profound geopolitical recasting of much of the Atlantic Archipelago has however, received very little scholarly attention. Instead, historians have tended to view events within this expanding Gaelic world, or Gàidhealtachd, as peripheral to the political development of the British Isles and the course of Anglo-Scottish relations during the later Medieval period. Drawing upon a comprehensive range of sources from Ireland, Scotland, and England, as well as significant archival research, this thesis challenges the concept of the so-called 'Celtic fringe' and illustrates how developments within the Gàidhealtachd impacted upon the course of 'British' politics during the period c.1350-1513. The thesis centres on an examination of how two competing Gaelic alliance systems came to dominate much of the Gàidhealtachd from the late fourteenth century through to the early 1500s. The first of these alliance blocs was controlled chiefly by the O'Neills of Tyrone, the O'Briens of Thomond, and MacDonalds of the Hebrides; in the other network the O'Donnells of Tyrconnell, the Burkes of Mayo and the Campbells of Argyll held sway. By tracing the interconnectivity of the lordships in each respective network, the thesis investigates how these alliance systems became a durable force not only within the Gàidhealtachd but also on the broader 'British' stage. The thesis is structured in a manner that makes the intricate, lineage-based world of the Gàidhealtachd more accessible. Each chapter shifts between the various regions of the Gaelic world and examines how developments in one region impacted upon corresponding territory. Ultimately, this provides historians with a new model for exploring what has previously been a majorly neglected area of Irish and British history.