Impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on smoking behaviour, risk perception & stigmatisation

The Republic of Ireland became the first European country to implement nationwide smoke-free workplace legislation. Aims: To determine prevalence of smoking among bar workers and estimate the impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on their smoking behaviour to that of a comparable general population sample. To approximate the influence of tobacco control measures on risk perception of second-hand smoke (SHS) among the general population. To explore the de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and the potential increased stigmatisation of smokers and their smoking. Methods: Prevalence estimates and behavioural changes were examined among a random sample of bar workers before and 1 year after the smoke-free legislation; comparisons made with a general population sub-sample. Changes in risk knowledge related to SHS exposure were based on general population data. Qualitative interviews were conducted among a purposive sample of smokers and non-smokers four years after the implementation of the legislation. Results: Smoking prevalence was extremely high among bar workers. Smoking prevalence dropped in bar workers and significantly among the general population 1 year post ban while cigarette consumption dropped significantly among bar workers. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smoker of risk associated with SHS exposure reduced. Lack of understanding of the risk of ear infections in children posed by SHS exposure was notable. Evidence for advanced de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and intensification of stigma because of the introduction of the legislation was dependent on many factors, quality of smoking facilities played a key role. Conclusions: Ireland’s smoke-free legislation was associated with a drop in prevalence and cigarette consumption. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smokers of the risk posed by SHS exposure reduced however the risk of ear infections in children needs to be effectively disseminated. The proliferation of ‘good’ smoking areas may diminish the potential to reduce smoking behaviour and de-normalise smoking.

Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009

Background: Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. Methods: National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994–2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Results: Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994–2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: −8.7 to −0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: −0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Conclusion: Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.

Established cardiovascular disease and CVD risk factors in a primary care population of middle-aged Irish men and women

Contemporary Irish data on the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are sparse. The primary aims of this study were (1) to estimate the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, in the general population of men and women between the ages of 50 and 69 years; and (2) to estimate the proportion of individuals in this age group at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events on the basis of pre-existing cardiovascular disease or as defined by the Framingham equation. Participants were drawn from the practice lists of 17 general practices in Cork and Kerry using stratified random sampling. A total of 1018 people attended for screening (490 men, 48%) from 1473 who were invited, a response rate of 69.1%. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and glucose intolerance are common in the population of men and women aged between 50 and 69 years. Almost half the participants were overweight and a further quarter met current international criteria for obesity, one of the highest recorded prevalence rates for obesity in a European population sample. Forty per cent of the population reported minimal levels of physical activity and 19% were current cigarette smokers. Approximately half the sample had blood pressure readings consistent with international criteria for the diagnosis of hypertension, but only 38% of these individuals were known to be hypertensive. Eighty per cent of the population sample had a cholesterol concentration in excess of 5 mmol/l. Almost 4% of the population had Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, of whom 30% were previously undiagnosed. A total of 137 participants (13.5%) had a history or ECG findings consistent with established cardiovascular disease. Of the remaining 881 individuals in the primary prevention population, a total of 20 high-risk individuals (19 male) had a risk of a coronary heart disease event 30% over ten years according to the Framingham risk equation, giving an overall population prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3 - 3.0). At a risk level 20% over ten years, an additional 91 individuals (8.9%) were identified. Thus a total of 24.4% of the population were at risk either through pre-existing CVD (13.5%) or an estimated 10-year risk exceeding 20% according to the Framingham risk equation (10.9%). Thus a substantial proportion of middle-aged men are at high risk of CVD. The findings emphasise the scale of the CVD epidemic in Ireland and the need for ongoing monitoring of risk factors at the population level and the need to develop preventive strategies at both the clinical and societal level.

Studies relating to the population dynamics of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland

European badgers (Meles meles) are an important part of the Irish ecosystem; they are a component of Ireland’s native fauna and are afforded protection by national and international laws. The species is also a reservoir host for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and implicated in the epidemiology of bTB in cattle. Due to this latter point, badgers have been culled in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) in areas where persistent cattle bTB outbreaks exist. The population dynamics of badgers are therefore of great pure and applied interest. The studies within this thesis used large datasets and a number of analytical approaches to uncover essential elements of badger populations in the ROI. Furthermore, a review and meta-analysis of all available data on Irish badgers was completed to give a framework from which key knowledge gaps and future directions could be identified (Chapter 1). One main finding suggested that badger densities are significantly reduced in areas of repeated culling, as revealed through declining trends in signs of activity (Chapter 2) and capture numbers (Chapter 2 and Chapter 3). Despite this, the trappability of badgers was shown to be lower than previously thought. This indicates that management programmes would require repeated long-term efforts to be effective (Chapter 4). Mark-recapture modelling of a population (sample area: 755km2) suggested that mean badger density was typical of continental European populations, but substantially lower than British populations (Chapter 4). Badger movement patterns indicated that most of the population exhibited site fidelity. Long-distance movements were also recorded, the longest of which (20.1km) was the greatest displacement of an Irish badger currently known (Chapter 5). The studies presented in this thesis allows for the development of more robust models of the badger population at national scales (see Future Directions). Through the use of large-scale datasets future models will facilitate informed sustainable planning for disease control.

The utility of survey and administrative data to generate information for research and outcomes-based oral health services development

The aim of this research, which focused on the Irish adult population, was to generate information for policymakers by applying statistical analyses and current technologies to oral health administrative and survey databases. Objectives included identifying socio-demographic influences on oral health and utilisation of dental services, comparing epidemiologically-estimated dental treatment need with treatment provided, and investigating the potential of a dental administrative database to provide information on utilisation of services and the volume and types of treatment provided over time. Information was extracted from the claims databases for the Dental Treatment Benefit Scheme (DTBS) for employed adults and the Dental Treatment Services Scheme (DTSS) for less-well-off adults, the National Surveys of Adult Oral Health, and the 2007 Survey of Lifestyle Attitudes and Nutrition in Ireland. Factors associated with utilisation and retention of natural teeth were analysed using count data models and logistic regression. The chi-square test and the student’s t-test were used to compare epidemiologically-estimated need in a representative sample of adults with treatment provided. Differences were found in dental care utilisation and tooth retention by Socio-Economic Status. An analysis of the five-year utilisation behaviour of a 2003 cohort of DTBS dental attendees revealed that age and being female were positively associated with visiting annually and number of treatments. Number of adults using the DTBS increased, and mean number of treatments per patient decreased, between 1997 and 2008. As a percentage of overall treatments, restorations, dentures, and extractions decreased, while prophylaxis increased. Differences were found between epidemiologically-estimated treatment need and treatment provided for those using the DTBS and DTSS. This research confirms the utility of survey and administrative data to generate knowledge for policymakers. Public administrative databases have not been designed for research purposes, but they have the potential to provide a wealth of knowledge on treatments provided and utilisation patterns.

Assessment of dietary background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs particularly taking into account additional exposure due to the 2008 Irish dioxin food contamination incident

Irish monitoring data on PCDD/Fs, DL-PCBs and Marker PCBs were collated and combined with Irish Adult Food Consumption Data, to estimate dietary background exposure of Irish adults to dioxins and PCBs. Furthermore, all available information on the 2008 Irish pork dioxin food contamination incident was collated and analysed with a view to evaluate any potential impact the incident may have had on general dioxin and PCB background exposure levels estimated for the adult population in Ireland. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to dioxins Total WHO TEQ (2005) (PCDD/Fs & DLPCBs) from environmental background contamination, was estimated at 0.3 pg/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 1 pg/kg bw/d. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to the sum of 6 Marker PCBs from environmental background contamination ubiquitous in the environment was estimated at 1.6 ng/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 6.8 ng/kg bw/d. Dietary background exposure estimates for both dioxins and PCBs indicate that the Irish adult population has exposures below the European average, a finding which is also supported by the levels detected in breast milk of Irish mothers. Exposure levels are below health based guidance values and/or Body Burdens associated with the TWI (for dioxins) or associated with a NOAEL (for PCBs). Given the current toxicological knowledge, based on biomarker data and estimated dietary exposure, general background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs is of no human health concern. In 2008, a porcine fat sample taken as part of the national residues monitoring programme led to the detection of a major feed contamination incidence in the Republic of Ireland. The source of the contamination was traced back to the use of contaminated oil in a direct-drying feed operation system. Congener profiles in animal fat and feed samples showed a high level of consistency and pinpointed the likely source of fuel contamination to be a highly chlorinated commercial PCB mixture. To estimate additional exposure to dioxins and PCBs due to the contamination of pig and cattle herds, collection and a systematic review of all data associated with the contamination incident was conducted. A model was devised that took into account the proportion of contaminated product reaching the final consumer during the 90 day contamination incident window. For a 90 day period, the total additional exposure to Total TEQ (PCDD/F &DL-PCB) WHO (2005) amounted to 407 pg/kg bw/90d at the 95th percentile and 1911 pg/kg bw/90d at the 99th percentile. Exposure estimates derived for both dioxins and PCBs showed that the Body Burden of the general population remained largely unaffected by the contamination incident and approximately 10 % of the adult population in Ireland was exposed to elevated levels of dioxins and PCBs. Whilst people in this 10 % cohort experienced quite a significant additional load to the existing body burden, the estimated exposure values do not indicate approximation of body burdens associated with adverse health effects, based on current knowledge. The exposure period was also limited in time to approximately 3 months, following the FSAI recall of contaminated meat immediately on detection of the contamination. A follow up breast milk study on Irish first time mothers conducted in 2009/2010 did not show any increase in concentrations compared to the study conducted in 2002. The latter supports the conclusion that the majority of the Irish adult population was not affected by the contamination incident.

A craniometric study of population dynamics and social organisation in the European upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic

The purpose of this study is to explore aspects of social organisation during the Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods using craniometric data. Different hypotheses were tested using geometric morphometrics, alongside traditional craniometric data. The clustering of individuals from the same site, as well as a correspondence to an isolation-by-distance model—particular in the Mesolithic samples—points to population structure within these groups. Moreover, discontinuities in cranial traits between the early Upper Palaeolithic and later periods could suggest that the Last Glacial Maximum had a disruptive effect on populations in Europe. Differences in social organisation can often result from cultural norms regarding post-marital residence. Such differences can be tested by comparing cranial data to that of geographic information. Greater variation in male cranial traits relative to females, after controlling for location, suggests that the overall pattern of residence during the Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic was one of matrilocality. It has been suggested that coastal occupation was density dependent and these populations show a greater degree of sedentism than their inland counterparts. Moreover, it has been proposed that coastal areas were not continuously occupied until the Late Pleistocene due to spatial restrictions that would adversely affect reproductive opportunities. This study corroborates the pattern seen in cranial traits corresponded with that of a more sedentary population. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that coastal populations are more sedentary than inland populations during these periods. This study adds new information regarding the social dynamics of prehistoric populations in Europe and sheds light on some of the conditions that may have paved the way for the transition to agriculture

Can population-level variation in early childhood development be measured in a manner that supports service planning and intervention?

Background: The Early Development Instrument (EDI) is a population-level measure of five developmental domains at school-entry age. The overall aim of this thesis was to explore the potential of the EDI as an indicator of early development in Ireland. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 47 primary schools in 2011 using the EDI and a linked parental questionnaire. EDI (teacher completed) scores were calculated for 1,344 children in their first year of full-time education. Those scoring in the lowest 10% of the sample population in one or more domains were deemed to be 'developmentally vulnerable'. Scores were correlated with contextual data from the parental questionnaire and with indicators of area and school-level deprivation. Rasch analysis was used to determine the validity of the EDI. Results: Over one quarter (27.5%) of all children in the study were developmentally vulnerable. Individual characteristics associated with increased risk of vulnerability were being male; under 5 years old; and having English as a second language. Adjusted for these demographics, low birth weight, poor parent/child interaction and mother’s lower level of education showed the most significant odds ratios for developmental vulnerability. Vulnerability did not follow the area-level deprivation gradient as measured by a composite index of material deprivation. Children considered by the teacher to be in need of assessment also had lower scores, which were not significantly different from those of children with a clinical diagnosis of special needs. all domains showed at least reasonable fit to the Rasch model supporting the validity of the instrument. However, there was a need for further refinement of the instrument in the Irish context. Conclusion: This thesis provides a unique snapshot of early development in Ireland. The EDI and linked parental questionnaires are promising indicators of the extent, distribution and determinants of developmental vulnerability.